Market Orientation and Worldview from Cultural Perspective Dissertation

Dissertation ManuscriptBySedric K. MorganGeopolitical Awareness and Understanding of the Current Monetary Policies: A Quantitative Study Northcentral University, 2019 Comment by Author: Sedric NOTE: take a look at the Turnitin Analysis report. Consider the areas that are closely related to student paper(s) from University of Maryland. I highly suspect this is a matter of improper paraphrasing (by you as well as these other student(s)). The areas are sourced and the similarity may be more likely from the direct source.Geopolitical Awareness and Understanding of the Current Monetary Policies: A Quantitative StudyDissertation ManuscriptSubmitted to Northcentral UniversitySchool of Business Administrationin Partial Fulfillment of theRequirements for the Degree ofDOCTOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATIONbySEDRIC KARL MORGANSan Diego, California Comment by Author: location of the university has changed since the 2018 DP/DM template. Please update the location to La Jolla, California for the Dissertation Proposal final. Thanks, Sharon.September2020Abstract Comment by Author: Meets AR checklist. The abstract contains the problem, purpose, findings, and recommendations. Comment by Author: Sedric format for the abstract section is one full paragraph. For content and format requirements of this section; please see the NCU DP/DM template, page iii, feedback comments.Understanding how knowledge of debt, monetary policy and geopolitical risks impact confidence in the international banking community could be a way for stakeholders to better manage their investments. The purpose of this study was to determine if the international banking community feels confident that it can sustain another global economic crisis, and specifically whether geopolitical awareness impacts that confidence level. Rational choice theory is used for this studys theoretical framework and is combined with the principles of mission command to explain how members of the international banking community perceive and execute their role in the industry in the face of mounting risks. The research questions were: 1) Is the international banking community confident in its ability to handle another global economic crisis like the one experienced from 2007-2008? 2) Does geopolitical awareness have an impact on the confidence of the members of the international banking community regarding the sector\'s ability to handle another global economic crisis like the one experienced from 2007-2008? 3) Do changes in central bank monetary policy (i.e., going from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening) and the awareness of the rising debt levels around the world affect the confidence levels of the members of the international banking community on the sectors ability to handle another global economic crisis like the one seen from 2007-2008? The findings showed that the international banking community is confident in its ability to handle another economic crisis and that neither geopolitical awareness nor changes in central bank monetary policy or awareness of debt levels were significant factors in impacting confidence. More research is thus needed to understand what affects the industrys confidence, as future research should focus on the role that central banks play in affecting confidence levels.Table of ContentsChapter 1: Introduction 1Statement of the Problem 2Purpose of the Study 3Theoretical Framework 4Nature of the Study 5Research Questions 6Significance of the Study 7Definitions of Key Terms 7Summary 8Chapter 2: Literature Review 10Theoretical Framework 11Literature Review 16Pea Ridge 16Rational Choice and Principles of Mission Command Apply to International Banking 192007-2008 Global Financial Crisis and Today 23Subprime 23Lehman 24Goldman Sachs 27Where Things Stand 31Risk and the Banking Community 34Geopolitical Risk Effect on Liquidity 39Over-Leveraged Institutions and Firms 41Social Capital as Context 46Significant Contribution to Behavioral Economic 50Suggestions and Critiques 50Social Capital and Social Change 52A Comparison of Outcomes 56China 60How Relations between Great Countries Affect Other Countries 64America and China Relations 65Japan and the United Arab Emirates 67How the US-China Relationship Impacts Japan and UAE 68Summary 72Chapter…

Some parts of this document are missing

Click here to view full document

…DissertationManuscriptBySedricK.MorganGeopoliticalAwarenessandUnderstandingoftheCurrentMonetaryPolicies:AQuantitativeStudyNorthcentralUniversity,2019CommentbyAuthor:SedricNOTE:takealookattheTurnitinAnalysisreport.Considertheareasthatarecloselyrelatedtostudentpaper(s)fromUniversityofMaryland.Ihighlysuspectthisisamatterofimproperparaphrasing(byyouaswellastheseotherstudent(s)).Theareasaresourcedandthesimilaritymaybemorelikelyfromthedirectsource.GeopoliticalAwarenessandUnderstandingoftheCurrentMonetaryPolicies:AQuantitativeStudyDissertationManuscriptSubmittedtoNorthcentralUniversitySchoolofBusinessAdministrationinPartialFulfillmentoftheRequirementsfortheDegreeofDOCTOROFBUSINESSADMINISTRATIONbySEDRICKARLMORGANSanDiego,CaliforniaCommentbyAuthor:locationoftheuniversityhaschangedsincethe2018DP/DMtemplate.PleaseupdatethelocationtoLaJolla,CaliforniafortheDissertationProposalfinal.Thanks,Sharon.September2020AbstractCommentbyAuthor:MeetsARchecklist.Theabstractcontainstheproblem,purpose,findings,andrecommendations.CommentbyAuthor:Sedricformatfortheabstractsectionisonefullparagraph.Forcontentandformatrequirementsofthissection;pleaseseetheNCUDP/DMtemplate,pageiii,feedbackcomments.Understandinghowknowledgeofdebt,monetarypolicyandgeopoliticalrisksimpactconfidenceintheinternationalbankingcommunitycouldbeawayforstakeholderstobettermanagetheirinvestments.Thepurposeofthisstudywastodetermineiftheinternationalbankingcommunityfeelsconfidentthatitcansustainanotherglobaleconomiccrisis,andspecificallywhethergeopoliticalawarenessimpactsthatconfidencelevel.Rationalchoicetheoryisusedforthisstudystheoreticalframeworkandiscombinedwiththeprinciplesofmissioncommandtoexplainhowmembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityperceiveandexecutetheirroleintheindustryinthefaceofmountingrisks.Theresearchquestionswere:1)Istheinternationalbankingcommunityconfidentinitsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008?2)Doesgeopoliticalawarenesshaveanimpactontheconfidenceofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityregardingthesector\'sabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008?3)Dochangesincentralbankmonetarypolicy(i.e.,goingfromquantitativeeasingtoquantitativetightening)andtheawarenessoftherisingdebtlevelsaroundtheworldaffecttheconfidencelevelsofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityonthesectorsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneseenfrom2007-2008?Thefindingsshowedthattheinternationalbankingcommunityisconfidentinitsabilitytohandleanothereconomiccrisisandthatneithergeopoliticalawarenessnorchangesincentralbankmonetarypolicyorawarenessofdebtlevelsweresignificantfactorsinimpactingconfidence.Moreresearchisthusneededtounderstandwhataffectstheindustrysconfidence,asfutureresearchshouldfocusontherolethatcentralbanksplayinaffectingconfidencelevels.TableofContentsChapter1:Introduction1StatementoftheProblem2PurposeoftheStudy3TheoreticalFramework4NatureoftheStudy5ResearchQuestions6SignificanceoftheStudy7DefinitionsofKeyTerms7Summary8Chapter2:LiteratureReview10TheoreticalFramework11LiteratureReview16PeaRidge16RationalChoiceandPrinciplesofMissionCommandApplytoInternationalBanking192007-2008GlobalFinancialCrisisandToday23Subprime23Lehman24GoldmanSachs27WhereThingsStand31RiskandtheBankingCommunity34GeopoliticalRiskEffectonLiquidity39Over-LeveragedInstitutionsandFirms41SocialCapitalasContext46SignificantContributiontoBehavioralEconomic50SuggestionsandCritiques50SocialCapitalandSocialChange52AComparisonofOutcomes56China60HowRelationsbetweenGreatCountriesAffectOtherCountries64AmericaandChinaRelations65JapanandtheUnitedArabEmirates67HowtheUS-ChinaRelationshipImpactsJapanandUAE68Summary72Chapter3:ResearchMethod74ResearchMethodologyandDesign76PopulationandSample77MaterialsorInstrumentation79OperationalDefinitionsofVariables80DataCollectionandAnalysis85Assumptions85Liitations85Delimitations86EthicalAssurances86Summary87Chapter4:Findings88ValidityandReliabilityoftheData89Transferability91Dependability91Confirmability93Results93ResearchQuestion195ResearchQuestion298ResearchQuestion3100EvaluationoftheFindings104ResearchQuestion1104ResearchQuestion2105ResearchQuestion3106WhattheFindingsMean107Summary110Chapter5:Implications,RecommendationsandConclusions112Implications113RecommendationsforPractice121Conclusions123References125AppendixA:ScatterplotofDependentVariable-Confidence133AppendixB:Scatterplot:DependentVariable-Confidence134ListofTablesTable1DemographicsofRespondents83Table2DemographicsofRespondents95Table3ConfidenceLevelsoftheBankingCommunity96Table4TheImpactofGeopoliticalAwarenessonConfidenceLevels99Table5TheEffectofCentralBankMonetaryPolicyandAwarenessofIncreasingDebtLevelsonConfidenceLevels103ListofFiguresFigure1Theconceptualframeworkofrationalchoiceandtheprinciplesofmissioncommand24Figure2Theprinciplesofmissioncommandmeetfactorsaffectingrationalchoice25iiChapter1:IntroductionThe2008globalfinancialcrisisshowedthatbanksneedtobepreparedfortheunexpected.Asfirmsrushedtosellinvestmentslosingvalue,themarketwasoverwhelmedandeconomiescrashed.TheFederalReserveintervenedwithanewformofmonetarypolicyknownasquantitativeeasing(QE).QEenabledtheFederalReservetorescuemarketsbyservingasthebuyeroflastresort(Adrian&Shin,2010;Heller,2017).Adecadelater,marketsweremakingnewhighsandtheglobaleconomyappearedtohavesufficientcapitaladequacyincaseofanynewfinancialemergency(Lupton,2018).Atthesametime,fearsofCOVID-19,tradewarfallout,anddepressionareevidentinnewsmediaallovertheworld.Thesefearssuggestthatinternationalbanksshouldbepreparedforuncertaintyintheforeseeablefuture.Aretheyconfidentintheirpreparedness?Thisisanimportantquestiontoask,assovereignandcorporatedebtisclimbingandastheFederalReservehasindicatedthatitmaynotengageinQEeverytimeamarketcrashorcorrectionoccurs(Dimon,2017;Lupton,2018).Inotherwords,thebankingsectorshouldnotgetusedtodependinguponthecentralbankforsupportineveryemergency.Lupton(2018)hasnotedtheriskbanksfacebystatingthatsince2007,theglobalsovereigndebthasballoonedby26percentagepointsofGDP(p.1).Dimon(2017)hasalsopointedoutadditionalriskbynotingthattheFederalReservemovingawayfromQEcouldbepotentiallydisastrousforbanks:\"TheeffectsofitsreversalcannotbewellknownsincenoQEhaseverbeendoneonthisscaleandnoonewouldcompletelyknowthemyriadofeffectsthatthiswouldhaveonassetprices,capitalexpenditures,confidence,andotherfactors\"(p.1)Thus,itisimportantforthebankingsectortoknowwhetheritcanwithstandanothercrisiswereonetoemerge.Itisvitalthatwehaveastudythatisgearedtowardsaddressingthisproblem(Mauldin,2018).Todetermineifthereisanyneedforprecautionstobetakennow,thepositioningandconfidenceoftheinternationalbanksshouldbewellunderstood.ThiswillassistindevelopingasenseofwhetheradefaultinonepartoftheworldsuchasChina,Italy,ortheU.S.willaffecttheentireindustry(Bouvatier&Delatte,2015).Intheaftermathofthe2008crisis,thebankingsectorwasinneedofsupportfromcentralbanksaroundtheworld(Bruno&Shin,2015).Today,itisunknownwhetherthesesamebanksareanymoreorlessconfidentinconfrontingacrisisofsimilarmagnitude.WhiletheFederalReservedoesconductstressteststoseeifcapitaladequacywillbeanissueforbanks,thesetestsdonotrevealthefullextentofrisk.ThecrisisintheREPOmarketsattheendof2019showedasmuch.Furthermore,in2010,theDoddFrankActleveragedstricterfinancialregulationsonthebankingcommunity.DeregulationintheU.S.undertheTrumpAdministration,hadanadverseeffect,asReuters(2018)reportedthatregulatedbankswereincreasinglyunderwritingleveragedbuyoutcompanyloansfollowingrelaxingoftaxguidelinesbytheRepublicansfocusedonriskreduction.Inshort,thereisplentyofreasonforinvestorstoworry.StatementoftheProblemCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthissection:Researchproblemisspecifiedandsupportedintheliterature.Theproblemisalignedwiththestudent\'sdegreeandisfeasible.CommentbyAuthor:Sedricconsiderbeginningthissectionbyclearlyidentifyingtheproblemandthenprovideevidenceandsupportthattheproblemiscurrentandworthyofadissertationresearchstudy.Forcontentandformatrequirementsofthissection;pleaseseetheNCUDP/DMtemplate,p.1,firstcheckboxforthissection.Salhinetal.(2016)showedmanagerialconfidencehasveanimpactonreturnoninvestment(ROI).Moreexaminationwasneededonhowconfidenceamongmembersofthefinanceindustryaffectsinvestmentbetweensectors(Salhinetal.,2016).Pikulinaetal.(2017)foundoverconfidenceamongprofessionalinvestorscanleadtohighrisksituationsleadingtoadverseeffectsoninvestment.Overconfidenceislinkedwithfinancialcrisisasinvestmentsbecomesoover-leveragedthattheslightestdisruptionbringdisaster(Hoetal.,2016).Understandingtheconnectionbetweenconfidenceandinvestmentinbankingisneeded(Leeetal.,2019).Domiddlemanagersandregularemployeesimpactindustriessustainability(Buyletal.,2019)?Itisnotknownwhateffectregularbankingemployeesattitudeshaveonindustrysustainability,furtherresearchisneeded(Buyletal.,2019).Lupton(2019)assertedwithrapiddebtgrowthworldwideitisunclearwhethertheindustrycansustainthisgrowthwithoutunduerisktaking.Midlevelbankingworkersarevitaltoabankssuccess(Buyletal.,2019).Theworldmayfaceanotherdisasterfollowingthecollapseofsub-primeintheUnitedStatescoupledwiththetidalwaveofleveragedloansdefaultingacrosstheglobalbankingsectorwherereliefwasfoundthroughcentralbankingintervention(Haitsmaetal.,2016;Heller,2017).CommentbyAuthor:EditthissentenceforclarityandtofacilitatetheReadersunderstandings.Thanks,Sharon.Thestudyproblemisoneofsustainabilityintheindustry.Lupton(2019),Dimon(2018)andBuyletal.(2019)questionedthesustainabilityoftodaysbankingindustry.Confidencemayplayapartindeterminingwhethertheindustryissustainable(Buyletal.,2019).However,itisunclearhowconfidencecanbedefinedemotionmetaphorsmaybeanindicationofthetypeofconfidencethatworkersinthebankingindustryhave(Ho&Cheng,2016).Confidenceisvitalsinceitdetermineshowmoneyisinvested,whatmarketswilldo,andwhereitisplaced(Heller,2017).Bankersconfidenceisimportanttoassessbecauseitimpactshowinvestorsinvest(Giles,2017).Thus,thisstudyaddressestheproblemofknowingtowhatextentbankershaveconfidenceintheirsectorasthesectorfacesoneofthebiggestcrisesinhistorywiththeCOVID-19lockdownsof2020.PurposeoftheStudyCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthissection:Purposestatementisalignedwithproblemstatement.Purposecontainsmethod,design,andgeographiclocationofthestudy.Purposeincludesadescriptionofthesamplepopulationforthestudy.Thepurposeofthisquantitativedescriptivestudywastodeterminewhetherthereisconfidenceamongbankersaroundtheworldwithrespecttothesectorsabilitytofaceaworldwidefinancialcrisis.Therelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidencewasdeterminedbyusingastructuredsurveytool.SurveyparticipantsrepresentedfourinternationalbanksHSBC,J.P.Morgan-Chase,DeutscheBankandBankofChina.ParticipantsremainedanonymousbyaccessingthesurveythroughSurveyMonkey.Geopoliticalawarenessisknowledgeofgeopoliticalcurrentevents.Geopoliticalrisksrepresentriskslinkedwithwars,terrorism,andtensionbetweenstates(Caldara&Iacoviello,2018).ThemodelformeasuringriskdevelopedbyCaldaraandIacoviellowasusedtomeasuregeopoliticaltensions.Inthesurvey,theparticipantswereaskediftheyseegeopoliticalriskintheworld.Theirresponseswerethenmeasuredagainstthemodelshowinghowmuchgeopoliticalriskispresent.ThescopeofthedatacollectionwaslimitedtobankerswithprofilesonLinkedIn.Economicandfinancialchallengeslieahead.Investorswanttoknowhowconfidenttheirbankersare(Giles,2017).Thisstudyevaluatedtheextenttowhichbankersfromaroundtheworldhaveconfidenceintheirsectorsabilitytomanagethecomingchallenges.TheoreticalFrameworkRationalchoicetheoryisbasedontheideathatactorsusereasontodeterminewhetheraparticulardecisionwillbebeneficialorcostly.Theassumptionisthatanindividualhastoknowwhatriskslieaheadinordertomakeaneffectivedecisionabouthowtomoveforward.Itrequiressubstantialpowersofcriticalthoughtananalysis,i.e.,theabilitytoposequestions,collectdata,analyzethemostrelevantinformation,andmakeadecisionaccordingly.Thisresearchwasconductedfromthestandpointofrationalchoicetheory.Theideathatinvestors,likebankers,concernthemselveswithissuessuchasbenefitvs.costseemedappropriateconsiderigthatmostinvestmentsareplacedintorisk-onassets,suchasequitiesinanygivenportfolio.Butwhathappensifrisksareinappropriatelyassessed?Whathappensifconfidenceismisplacedorinsufficient?Bylookingatthebankingsectorfromthestandpointofrationalchoice,oneisfacedwithsuchquestions.Thus,thequestionsusedtoguidethisresearcharoseasanaturalresponsetotheapplicationofthistheoreticalperspective.MarkCarney,formerheadoftheBankofEngland,observedthatworldwidefinancial,political,socialandeconomicchallenges\"havemadeitmoredifficultforcentralbankstosetpolicyinordertoachievetheirobjectives\"(Giles,2017).Whatthissuggestsisthatbanksareintheunenviablepositionoffacingaworldofuncertainty.Marketstendtoshrinkfromuncertainty.Moreover,asVanLerven(2016)notedonthetopicofrelyingoncentralbankintervention,\"Aftermorethanayearsinceitsinitialinception,areviewoftheprogramsimpactrevealsthatpolicymakersshouldthinktwicebeforefurtherexpandingtheprogram-andcouldbenefitfromconsideringmoredirectwaysofincreasingspendingintherealeconomy\"(p.237).Inshort,thereareevencoststobeconsideredwithrespecttotrustingthattheFederalReservecanandwillsupportmarketsindefinitely.Thatunderstandingaloneisenoughtojustifythisstudysinquiry.NatureoftheStudyThisstudyisquantitativeinnature.1000bankersfromfourdifferentinternationalbanksweresurveyed.Theirdemographicswereconsideredandfocuswasgiventounderstandingthevariablesthataffectedtheirconfidence.Themaintheoreticalimplicationofthisresearchisthatitcouldprovideinsightintohowbankmanagersmanageemployeesconfidenceinthefaceofgrowingfinancialrisksatthemacroandmicrolevels.ThemethodologyforthisstudyispresentedinChapter3.Whatwasmeasuredandwhyisdescribedindetailsoastoensuregeneralizability(Lincoln&Guba,1985;Seale,1999).Providingadetailedstatementofthemethodsusedhereinalsoallowsotherresearcherstoreconstructthestudyforthepurposeofensuringreliability(Golfshani,2003).ResearchQuestionsThemainpurposeoftheseresearchquestionswastoassessbankersconfidenceintermsoffacingacomingeconomicorfinancialcrisis.Thesecondpurposeofthesequestionswastoseewhatvariablesorfactorsimpactbankersconfidence.Theresearchquestionsforthisstudywere:CommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthissection:Researchquestionsarealignedwiththeproblemandpurpose.Researchquestionsaremeasurable,answerable,andwellformatted.RQ1.IstheinternationalbankingcommunityintheWestmoreconfidentinitsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008thanthecommunityintheEast?H0.ThereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweenworkinginthebankingcommunityintheWest/Eastandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.ThereisasignificantrelationshipbetweenworkinginthebankingcommunityintheWest/Eastandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.RQ2.Doesgeopoliticalawarenesshaveanimpactontheconfidenceofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityregardingthesector\'sabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008?H0.Thereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.Thereisasignificantrelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.RQ3.Doalterationsinmonetarypolicyandtheawarenessoftherisingdebtlevelsaroundtheworldaffecttheconfidencelevelsofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityonthesectorsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneseenfrom2007-2008?H0.Thereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweenawarenessofmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.Thereisasignificantrelationshipbetweenawarenessofmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.SignificanceoftheStudyThesignificanceofthisresearchisrootedinthefocusitbringstotheissueofconfidenceandwhatitmeanstomarkets.Confidencehasanimpactoneverythingfrompreciousmetalstoequitiestobondsandevenblockchain(Haitsmaetal,2016).Itisvitalthatbankmanagersunderstandhowconfidencecanimpacttheirbusinesses.Therefore,thetimelinessofthisstudycannotbeoverstatedconsideringthattheCOVID-19crisiseruptedasthisstudywasgettingunderway.Thus,thisstudyhasaimedtoaddressaveryrealandsignificantconcern.Ifmanagerscanseewhatconfidencelevelsarelike,theymaybeabletoadjuststrategiesorengageinself-assessmentanalysisbeyondtheFederalReservesstresstests.Thisstudysresultshaveadvancedtheguidingframeworkbyshowingwhatfactorsimpactconfidenceandhowconfidencemayimpactdecisionmaking.Byaddressingthisissue,stakeholderscanbebetterpositionedtoengagethecriticalthoughtprocess.Intheend,thisresearchfacilitatesmanagerscriticalthinkingbygivingthemanotherdatapointthatcanbeusedtopreparetheirfirmsortheindustryoverallforacomingcrisisofconfidence.DefinitionsofKeyTermsCommentbyAuthor:NiceworkonthetermsSedric.Format/typoindentthetermheadingsasyoudidforthetermConfidence.Confidence.Confidenceisanintegralpartofthebankingandinvestmentprocess:asOrdonez(2018)states,securitizationreliesonconfidence(p.1).Confidenceistrustinonesabilities;itisthesensethatonecanrisetothechallenge.Confidenceinbankingsuggeststhatonehasawarenessofrisksandisadequatelypositionedtorespondtothem(Ordonez,2018).DebtAwareness.Debtawarenessreferstotheawarenessofonetodebtsthatcanimpactonesfutureabilitytoinvest(Lupton,2018).GeopoliticalAwareness.Inthisstudy,geopoliticalawarenessisanawarenessofgeopoliticalforcesandmaneuverings.Itincludesawarenessofunresolvedissuesinthegeopoliticalrealm,andwhatfactorsmightincreasetensionbetweennationsortriggercrisesintheglobalsocio-politicalandeconomicorder(Dijink,2002).GlobalEconomicCrisis.The2008economiccrisisisthestandardexampleofaglobaleconomiccrisis,butthiscanbeanytypeofeventthattriggersafinancialcrisisoreconomichardshipresultinginstressonfinancialinstitutions(Bennett&Segerberg,2011).QuantitativeEasing.Quantitativeeasing(QE)describesthenewformofmonetarypolicyinitiatedbytheFederalReserveandothercentralbanksaroundtheworldinresponseto(Heller,20l7).Itinvolvesthelarge-scalepurchasingofsecuritiesandbondsbythebankforthepurposesofprovidingliquidityformarkets.Essentially,itisthecentralbankactingasthebuyeroflastresort.QuantitativeTightening.Quantitativetightening(QT)istheoppositeofQEanddescribesthepolicyofunwindingthecentralbanksbalancesheetafteraperiodofQE.WhereasQEprovidesliquidityforamarket,QTdrainsliquidity(Armasetal.,2014).SummaryThepurposeofthisquantitativestudyistomeasuretheextenttowhichbankersintheinternationalbankingsectorareconfidentthattheycanfacethechallengesofaneconomiccrisislikethatof2008orlikethatcurrentlybeingexperiencedaroundtheworldasaresultofCOVID-19lockdowns.Thereasonthisstudyisimportantisthatconfidenceisakeyindicatoroftrust,andinvestorswanttoknowiftheirinvestmentisintrustworthyhands.Howbankersshowormaintainconfidencecanimpactdecisionmakingwithrespecttoinvestmentfunds.Applyingrationalchoicetheorytotheissueofconfidenceinbankingcanhelptoshowhowthecostvs.benefitargumentplaysapartinthecriticalthinkingprocessorwhetherthereareothervariablesimpactingbankersconfidence.Thenextchapterofthisstudyprovidesaliteraturereviewofpertinentstudiesandarticles.Chapter2:LiteratureReviewCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthischapter:Literaturereviewisalignedwiththevariables/constructsoutlinedintheproblem,purpose,andresearchquestionsandflowsinalogicalsequence.AcademicReaderchecklistforthischapter:Literaturereviewiscurrentandincludessynthesisofideasaroundthemes,includinghowstudyfitswithintheoretical/conceptualframework.Literaturereviewissufficientinbreadthanddepthforadissertation.Thisquantitativedescriptivestudyfocusesonwhatfactorsimpactbankersconfidenceandhowconfidenceimpactsdecisionmakinginbanking.Consideringthatthereisnow$17trillioninnegativeyieldingdebtaroundtheworld,theprospectsofcentralbankshavingenoughdrypowdertoaddressarecessionoradepressionissurelyonethatbankershaveconsideredparticularlysincetheirverylivelihoodstandstobeaffectedshouldasignificantandlong-termdownturntakeplace(Ainger,2019).Understandingtheknowledgeandconfidencelevelsofbankersinthepresentcircumstancesbymeasuringtheirawarenessofgeopoliticalriskanddeterminingwhetherthatawarenessimpactstheiroutlookcouldbeawayforstakeholderstobettermanagetheirinvestments.Thischaterprovidesadiscussionofthetheoreticalframeworkusedinthisstudy.ItthenproceedstosummarizetheliteraturerelevanttothissubjectbylookingatresearchontheGlobalFinancialCrisisof2007-2008,howithappened,howitwashandled,andwhatthelastingeffectshavebeen;howgeopoliticalriskisrelatedtofinanceissues,suchasliquiditydrain,leverage,flighttosafehavens.Italsodiscussesthecurrentgeopoliticalrisksfacingtheglobalbankingcommunitytodayandwhatitmeansinthefuture.Databases.CommentbyAuthor:NicediscussiononyourliteraturesearchstrategySedric!ThedatabasesaccessedforthisliteraturereviewincludedTaylor&FrancisOnline,JSTORandothersusingtheGoogleScholarsearchengine.Thesearchparametersincludedkeywordsinternationalfinancebankinggeopolitics,chinaandussymbioticrelationship,geopoliticalriskbanking,internationalbankingeconomiccrisis,bankingqe,andnumerousothers.Manysearchtermsweregatheredbysnowballingliterature,withonearticleprovidingtermsthatwouldbeusedtogeneratemorereturns,andthosearticlesofferingnewterms.Therewasnoconstraintonrangeofyears,thoughmostliteraturefocusedonarticleswrittenpost-2008,asthismarkedtheshiftincentralbankingmonetarypolicythathasledtheinternationalbankingcommunitytowhereitistoday.Instead,articleswereselectedforcontent,whetherqualitativeorquantitative,andarangeofsubjects,includingeconomics,financeandbankingasitrelatedtoRussia,China,Europe,Japan,theU.S.,currency,trade,debt,equities,bonds,gold,realestate,politics,geopolitics,oil,andmore.Thepointofthesesearcheswastoobtainasufficientmacro-levelviewoftheindustry,withcontextbeingprovidedbothbyrecent(pasttenyears)studiesandolderstudiesthathaveprovedseminalandhelpfulforunderstandingtheevolutionoftheindustryovertheyears.TheoreticalFrameworkRationalchoicetheorywasusedastheoreticalframeworkforthisstudy.OriginallydevelopedbyCornishandClark(1987)andappliedtocriminology,ithasbeenusedbysociologists,economists,andvariousotherresearchersinamultitudeofdisciplines.Theunderlyingbasisofthistheoryisthatpeoplebasetheirdecisionsonhowtoactbylookingattheeffectslikelytofollowtheact.Thisisknownasevaluatingtheriskvs.rewardorasconductingacost/benefitanalysis(Buskins,2015).Bylookingatbothriskandreward,theindividualmakesarationalchoicebasedontheinformationobtained.Theinformationsuggeststhebestcourseofactionwithinreason.Ineconomics,rationalchoicehasbecomethedominantparadigm(Buskins,2015).Thetypicaldefinitionofrationalchoicetheoryineconomicsisthatpeoplewilluserationalcalculationstomakedecisionsthattheybelievewillallowthemtoreachtheirgoals.Theunderlyingassumptionofthetheoryisthatmostindividualswillattempttomaximizetheirpositionoradvantagewhileminimizingriskorlosses.Thekeyconceptsinthistheoryarethatinordertoeffectivelymakerationalchoices,onemustknowthecostsorthebenefitsastheyareandnotmerelyastheyappearinonesmind.Ifoneisnotconfidentaboutthecostsandbenefits,onecannotproceedeffectivelyinthedecision-makingprocess:thisisoneofthebasicaxiomsofhowrationalchoiceismadeeveninsituationswhereuncertaintylooms(Loomes&Sugden,1982).Riskisamajorfactorindeterminingtheextenttowhichrationalchoicetheoryhasutility,andcriticshaveoftenusedtheconceptofSubjectiveExpectedUtility(SEU)theapproachtodecision-makingfocusingonthesubjectiveassessmentofvariablesandprobabilitiestolevytheirattacks(Baumanetal.,1984).However,asAnand(1995)pointedout,SEUisafalseparadigmthatplacesunnecessaryconstraintsonrationalagency(p.1).Colanderetal.(2009)notedthattheillusionofcontrolandtemptationtolureeconomistsandbankersintoerroneouswaysdonotnegatetheutilityofrationalchoicetheory.Onthecontrary,itmakesitnecessarysincerationalchoicetheoryisbestunderstoodfromtheperspectiveofdutyandresponsibility.Actorshaveadutytoactrationallyitisnotamatterofwhethermostdoordonot;thedutyiswhatmattersasthisiswhatdrivesstakeholderstobeinvestedontheiraccounts.Ininstanceswhereuncertaintyabounds,criticshavearguedthatrationalchoicetheoryfailstoholdmuchpredictiveorexplanativepower(Sen,1977).Forthatreason,rationalchoicetheoryisopposedbyscholarswithinthefieldofbehavioraleconomicswhopositthatindividualsdonotalwaysornecessarilymakerationaldecisionswithaviewtomaximizingtheirassetsorposition.Sen(1977)arguedthatactorsineconomicsarerationalfoolsandthatnoneshouldbeconsideredrationalasnonetrulydemonstratesrationalityi.e.,actionsthatcanallandentirelybeexplainedlogicallythereasonbeingthatactorsdonotreallyhaveasmuchchoiceinmattersasitappears.However,Sen(1977)approachedthetheoryofrationalchoicefromhisownframework,whichprecludestheexistenceofchoiceeveninthemostrestrictiveandconstrainingofenvironments.Evenaslavehaschoicestomake.Simon(1972)proposedtheideaofboundedrationality,whichisthatindividualstendtohaveonlylimitedknowledgeaboutanissueand/oroptionsavailableandthustheyarenotgoingtobeabletomakethebestpossibledecision.Simon(1972)notedthatthecounterargumentisthatatsomepointdecisionsneedtobemadeandtherewillinevitablybeamomentwheninformationgatheringcomestoanend.Onemaybelieveorfeelthatadequateinformationwasobtainedorthatmoreinformationwouldbehelpful;however,giventhenatureofrealityandthefactthattimedoesnotstop,onecanassumethatmostrationally-mindedindividualswillattempttomakerationaldecisionsbasedonwhateverinformationtheywereabletoaccumulateuptothatpoint.Therearenumerousexamplesofleadersorindividualswhomadepoordecisions,whodidnotdemonstratetheconceptofacceptingprudentriskoneoftheU.S.ArmyssixprinciplesofMissionCommandbuttheseexceptionsprovetherule.Thisiswhatstudentsofeconomictheorystudytoimprovetheirperceptionofhowbesttoactinagivensituation.Forthatreason,thetheoryofrationalchoiceisbestappliedasitrepresentstheidealapproachthatoneseekstotakeindecisionmaking.Tobetterexplainhowthistheoreticalframeworkshouldbeapplied,itishelpfultoconsideritintermsofanhistoricalanecdote,usingtheprinciplesofMissionCommandasalaunchpointforexploringandexplainingthistheory.ThecaseinquestionisthefailureofConfederateCommanderVanDornatPeaRidgein1862duringtheAmericanCivilWartoacceptprudentriskandactrationally.Hisfailureturnedintohisopponentssuccess,ashisopponentengagedinamorerationalapproachtotheconflictandasaresultwontheday(Hanson,2013).SituatedwithinthissimpleexampleisalargeranalogyforhowtheframeworkmustconsideralltheprinciplesofMissionCommandtoexplainhowbanksworkasagroupofteamswithinanindustrywheretheyareallessentiallybattling(attimes),orworkingwithforcesofeconomicstofacilitatetheachievementoffinancialandeconomicgoals.First,thehistoricalexampleandconsiderationgiventohowrationalchoicetheoryalignswiththeprinciplesofMissionCommandarediscussed,andsecond,theapplicationtobankingisdescribed.ConceptualDiagramFigure1Theconceptualframeworkofrationalchoiceandtheprinciplesofmissioncommand.Figure1showstherelationshipbetweeninformation,understanding(beliefs)andactionandtheimpactthatdesirehasoneachofthosefactorsisequal.Desirecaninfluencewhichinformationisacceptabletoaperson;itcaninfluenceunderstanding,andaction.Theinfluenceismutual,too,asthedesirewillinfluencetheactionoftheindividual,andactionwillinturnaffectonesdesire.Desireisinformedbythedataoneobtainsbutdesirecanalsoinfluencewhichdataoneseeks.Onecanbebiasedbydesire,butonecanalsouseinformationtoshapeonesdesireandreducebiascreatedbyuninformedorunrestraineddesire.Actionwillimpactgoals,andtheachievementorfailuretoachievegoalswilllikewiseinfluenceaction.Goalsareshapedbytheinformationonehasobtained.Principlesmustbeusedtoshapeallofthesehowdesireisformed,whatinformationissought,whatactionsarecommencedandwhatgoalsareidentified.Withoutprinciplesattheheartofthedecisionmakingtheformislostandtherelationshipshavenomeasure.Therefore,theideaofmissioncommandcanserveasanadequatesourceofprinciplesforrationalchoicedecisionmaking.Elster(2018)explained,rational-choicetheorymusttelltheagentshowbesttorealizetheirdesires,giventheirbeliefs.Furthermore,thetheorymustprescribewhichbeliefsitisrationalfortheagentstohold,giventheirevidenceorinformation.Thoughabeliefmayberational,itcanbefalse,andunderstandingmaynotalwaysbethemaindriverofaction:desirecancloudtheapplicationofreason.Therefore,usingtheprinciplesofMissionCommandtohelpframetheapplicationofrationalchoicetheorytothisstudyishelpful.MissionCommandprinciplesillustratetheproperapplicationofreasoninthedecision-makingframeworkformaximumpositiveeffect,asshowniFigure2below.Figure2Theprinciplesofmissioncommandmeetfactorsaffectingrationalchoice.CommentbyAuthor:SedricJustaconsideration:IsuspectFigure1and2wereself-developed,correct?Ifso,nicework.IfnothenBesurethisisnotcopyrightedmaterial.Ifso,besuretoobtainpermissiontouseinyourdissertationmanuscript..Seesection5.06(p.128)inAPA6.Also:https://ncu.libguides.com/APAStyle/copyrightinformationhttp://blog.apastyle.org/apastyle/2016/01/navigating-copyright-part-1.htmlhttps://academicwriter-apa-org.proxy1.ncu.edu/learn/browse/QG-28Figure2showstherelationshipbetweentheprinciplesofmissioncommandandhowtheyshouldbeappliedifoneisgoingtoactrationallyandeffectively.Onemustfirstunderstandtheoperationalstatetheexternalenvironment.Onemustalsodefinethedesiredstate:whatonewantstoachieve.Theproblemsorobstaclesmustbefacedandacknowledgedsothatastrategycanbedevised.Riskmustbeassessedandaccepted,butitmustbeassessedandacceptedprudentlyinaccordancewiththeprinciples,asafeplanisbasedupontheacceptanceofprudentrisk,whichisoneoftheprinciplesofmissioncommand.AsFigure2shows,thesixprinciplesofmissioncommandare:1)teamwork,2)sharedunderstanding,3)clearintent,4)discipline,5)execution,and6)acceptingriskprudently.Whentheseprinciplesarealignedandfollowed,theyleadtothedecision-makingstage.Thatstagewillbeimpactedbytheforcesofdesireandenvironmentalfactors,asoccurredwithVanDorn,whichisseeninthenextsection.Whenthedecision-makingstageisfortifiedbytheaboveprinciples,theflowofinformationfromdesiretoactiontogoalsisstableandappropriateanddecisionsaremorelikelytobemaderationally.LiteratureReviewPeaRidgeCommentbyAuthor:Sedric,IbelieveyouhavebeenusingAPA,6thedition,correct?Ifso,thenthisisalevel3heading.PleaseplaceinAPAstyleformat.IfyoutransitionedtoAPAstyle7thedition,thenthisformattingiscorrect.IntheprinciplesofMissionCommand,thereisconsiderableoverlap.Eachofthesixprinciplesisessentiallyintegratedandinterwovenwithoneanothersothattobewithoutoneisreallytobewithoutall.ThefailureoftheConfederatestocountertheUnionattackatPeaRidgein1862resultedfromavarietyofproblems.TheseproblemscanbeanalyzedfromtheperspectiveoftheArmyssixprinciplesofMissionCommandandshowwhytheproblemsbegantomountfortheConfederateCommander.Assoonashefailedtocreatesharedunderstandingandactprudentlywithrespecttotheupcomingfight,VanDornfailedtocollaboratewellwithhiscolleagues.Hedidnotaccepttheirconsiderationsasvalidorsharedhisownthinkingonthematterathand.Heinsistedonattackinginsteadofrestingandthustheriskhetookwasimprudent(Hanson,2013).VanDorncouldhavesucceededhadhetakentheadviceofMcCulloch,byrestinghismenandhimself,anddevisinghisplan.Healsocouldhavesucceededhadheacceptedriskprudently,byacceptingtheriskofcuttingoffhislineofcommunicationbyswingingtotherearoftheenemybuthedidnotacceptthisriskprudently.Instead,heshouldhavemadesurethatMcCullochunderstoodtheimportanceofbeingtheretosupportVanDorn.Bynotcommunicatingeffectively,VanDorntookriskswithoutprecautionandeliminatedthepotentialforsharedunderstanding.Ultimately,VanDornfailedinbuildingacohesiveteamasherejectedMcCullochsadvicetoletthetroopsrest.VanDornwantedtobeatCurtistothepunchandobtaingloryforhimselfinthismanner(Hanson,2013,p.9).VanDornwasexhaustedandnotinaposition,mentallyorphysically,toactinthemostdesirableoridealrationalmanner.Hisadvisorsweremorerationalandhisopponentmostrational.VanDorncommittedseveralviolationsoftheprinciplesofMissionCommand,buthisfirstandbiggestwashisfailuretocreateasenseofsharedunderstanding,asthisisthelynchpinthatallowssomanyoftheotherprinciplestofallintoplace(ADRP6-0,2012).Sincerationalchoiceispredicateduponunderstanding,VanDornhandcuffedhimselfbyfailingasaleadertoestablishunderstanding.Creatingasharedunderstandingdependsuponcollaboration.Collaborationdependsuponcommunication.Communicationdependsuponatwo-wayflowofinformation,withconsiderationandrespectforthosecommunicating(ADRP6-0,2012).Itdependsupontrustandrespectbutitalsodependsuponusingonesownintelligenceandskillandcontributingtothedecision-makingprocessinsteadofrelyingsolelyuponothersforinformation,asVanDorndidwhenheneglectedtodostandardreconnaissancewhichwouldhavepresentedhimnewandhelpfulinformationregardingCurtissplans(Hanson,2013).VanDorndidnotlistentoMcCullochwhenthelatteradvisedagainstattackingCurtisfollowingalengthytrekacrossArkansas:McCullochsawthatrestforthemenwouldbegood.VanDornsawonlytheopportunitytoseizethedayandtherebyhisownglory(Hanson,2013).Therewasnosharedunderstandingofwhatwasatstakeorwhy,despitethesupposedadvantageinattackingimmediately,analternativeplancouldalsosucceedandallowthementobefreshandreadyforafight.VanDornsawanopportunityforglory;McCullochsawtheriskofdisaster(Hanson,2013).TheriskofdisasterwasexactlywhatVanDornshouldhaveconsideredmoreprudently.However,halfexhaustedhimselffromthetrekacrossArkansas,VanDornwasnotinaprudentframeofmind.ThisledtohissecondmajorviolationoftheprinciplesofMissionCommand:hedidnotacceptprudentriskhejustacceptedrisk.HadVanDornbeenprudentaboutwaitingtoattackandprudentaboutcirclingaroundtoCurtissrear,heverylikelymighthaveplacedhimselfandhismeninabetterpositiontowin.However,hefailedtocommunicateeffectivelywithMcCulloch,whomhehadessentiallydismissedbecauseMcCullochdidnotseemtograspVanDornsinsistencethatagloriousvictoryagainsttheUnionwaswithinreachifonly,theyactedimmediately(Hanson,2013).VanDornshouldnothavesimplyreliedontheinformationgivenhimbyPriceandMcCulloch,asthiswasfurtherimprudenceonhispart(Hanson,2013).HewasincommandandshouldhavecontributedsomethingtothedatabyorderingaquickreconnaissancemissiontoseeifCurtisspositionhadchangedatallorifthelayoutofthelandwasasreported.DoingsowouldhavebroughtbacknewinformationabouttheroadblockthatcausedMcCullochtobedistracted,whichledtoPricelackingthesupportheneededtocountertheUnionsdefenses.YetifVanDornhaddoneabetterjobofcollaboratingwithMcCullochandcoordinatingaplanwithaclearintenti.e.,theneedtooverwhelmCurtisandunitetheirforceshewouldhavedemonstratedbetteradherencetotheprinciplesofMissionCommandandtherebybroughtoutavictory.Bytakingrest,VanDornwouldhavegivenhimselftimetoestablishadisciplinedinitiativeamongthemen(Hanson,2013).TheoverallthemethatrunsthroughthecasestudyofthefailureoftheConfederateCommanderatPeaRidgesisthethemeofpoorunderstanding.VanDornwasinnostateandneitherwerehismentocarryoutaflawlessexecution.ADRP6-0(2012)noted,effectivecommandersbuildteamswithintheirownorganizationsandwithunifiedactionpartnersthroughinterpersonalrelationships(p.2-2).HadVanDornbeenmoreconcernedabouthismen,hewouldhaverestedthemandallowedhisownmindtorecalibratesothatitwouldbefreshandreadyforthedaysahead.Insummation,VanDornsimplydidnotbothertobuildeffectiverelationships,anditsetthestageforatotallackofcollaboration,communication,initiative,andclarityofvision.Prudencegovernsunderstandingandactsasthelightthatallowsknowledgetogotoworkeffectively.VanDorncloudedhisownunderstandingandtheunderstandingofhismenbynotgivingthemrest,notsurveyingthescenethroughhisownreconnaissance,andnotcommunicatinghisoverallstrategyandtheimportantdetailsofthestrategythatwouldhaveallowedhismentobemoreflexibleintheirexecutionofthemission.RationalChoiceandPrinciplesofMissionCommandApplytoInternationalBankingRiskisanacceptedpartofinternationalbankingandfinance,however,aswiththeprincipleofmissioncommand,riskmustbeacceptedprudently.Theeventsthatledtothe2007-2008globalfinancialcrisiswereprecipitatedbyimprudentrisktakingbyseverallargeinvestorsandinstitutions(Harris,2013).Rationalchoicesweremadebysomebutnotmadebyothers(Greenfield,2010).GoldmanSachsidentifiedtheriskyandhighlyover-leveragednatureofthesituationandactedaccordinglybypurchasingcreditdefaultswaps[aninsurancehedgeagainstthesubprimemarketbubblebursting](McLean&Nocera,2011).ThebankwasthusprotectedfinanciallybutitwasalsoprotectedpoliticallythankstoHenryPaulsonbeingU.S.TreasurySecretaryatthetime(McLean&Nocera,2011).PaulsonwasaformerGoldmanCEOandnowwastheonemanwiththemostpowertoprotectthesectorshouldthose,likeAIG,whowouldhavetomakegoodonthecreditdefaultswapstheysoldtofirmslikeGoldman,suddenlyfindthemselvesunabletocomeupwiththemoneyintheeventofthebottomfallingoutofthesubprimemarket.PaulsonendedupsigningoffontheTroubledAssetReliefProgram(TARP),whichbailedoutAIG,whichinturncouldpayoftheinsurancehedgepurchasedbyGoldman(McLean&Nocera,2011).GoldmanwasabletocreateasenseofsharedunderstandingwithPaulsonandtheU.S.TreasuryregardingtheneedforTARP,andthusthebankdidnotsufferanynegativeconsequencesfromthefalloutofthemortgagebubblebursting,whilethosewhohadonlypurchasedthetroubledmortgage-backedsecurities,asset-backedcommercialpaperandcollateralizeddebtobligationswereinamuchriskierposition.FirmslikeLehmanhadnotactedrationallybyacceptingonlyprudentrisk:theyhadconstrictedtheirownriskmanagementteamsandthuswerenotevenawareoftheriskmountingatthetime.InonesenseonecouldarguethatthisvalidatesSimons(1972)objectiontorationalchoicetheorybutitsimplyshowswhathappenstohighlyleveragedfirmsthatfailtoactrationally.Firmsthatactrationally(likeGoldman)doquitewellforthemselveseveninadverseenvironments.ThisisthepointalsomadebyKanagaretnametal.(2015),whenbanksactwithprudenceandacceptonlyprudentrisk,theyarefarlesslikelytosuffernegativeconsequencesintimesofeconomicorfinancialturmoil.Goldmansexampleshowedthetenaciousforesightofunitingpoliticalsupportswithfinancialonessothatifonesinsuranceprovider(inthiscase,AIG)suddenlyfounditselfstrappedbyaliquiditycrisis,thefederalgovernmentcouldintervenewithabailoutof$700billionandmakesurethatthebankreceiveditspay(McLean&Nocera,2011).Goldmanunderstoodthepossibilityofamajordefaultandtheeffectsitwouldhave:byhavingPaulsoninpositiontooutflanktherisingtideofdefaultsviaTARP,Goldmaneffectivelyengineereditsowncoupdegraceatatimewhenotherfirmswerelosingeverything.Thelessonlearnedfromthisexampleisthatrationalchoicetheorycaneasilyandsimplybeappliedtotheinternationalbankingcommunitywithpredictiveandexplanativepower.Simon(1972),statedthatrationalchoicetheoryappliesbecausesomepeoplesometimesactirrationallyorfailtoconsiderorseekoutallthedataneededtomakeawisedecision.Peopleandinstitutionsareexpectedtoactrationallybystakeholders.VanDornhadasmuchofadutytoactrationallyasacommanderasGoldmansexecutivesdidintheyearsleadinguptothe2007-2008crisis.VanDornfailedinhisduty,justasLehmanandBearStearnsfailedintheirs.Goldmandidnot.Goldmannotonlysurvivedthecrisisbutmanagedtomakealargeprofit(McLean&Nocera,2011).Thetheoreticalframeworkofrationalchoicetheoryisapplicabletothepresenteconomicsituationinthecontextofthisstudyaswell.Especiallywhenconsideredinthelightofthephilosophyofmissioncommand,oneseesanentirelynewsetofprinciplesordutiesthebankingindustryshouldbemindfuloftoavoidrepeatingthesamemistakesofthepast.Theonlyquestioniswhetherthosemistakescanbeavoidedorifthecurrentsituationisbeyondthecontrolofanyoneandtheonlythingthebankingcommunitycandoisengageinreactionarydecisionmaking.Dimon(2017)andLupton(2018)acknowledgedthatbyweighingthecostsandbenefitsofincreasingdebtandleverageamonggovernmentsandcorporations,theconditionsforbankingsuccessatthispointareratherperilous.Whentheaddedelementofgeopoliticalriskisthrownintothemix,thesituationcanbejudgedtobeevenmarkedlyworse.Dotheseconsiderationswarrantareactionofconcernamongmembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunity?Shouldinvestorsandstakeholderstakeheed?OrisallwellanddoesVanDornhaveahandleonthesituation?Wheninvestorspurchaseequities(riskassets)theydosobecausetheyjudgethereturnontheirinvestmentwillbegreaterthanthecost(consistingofboththepriceoftheassetandtheassociateddownsiderisk).Butwhathappenswhenoneinaccuratelyassessesthefactswhenonedoesnotaccuratelyunderstandthebenefitsordoesnotproperlyidentifytherisksinvolvedinthetransaction?Byexaminingtheinternationalbankingindustrythroughthislensandaskingthesequestions,theproblemcanbemoreeasilyseen,andtheresearchquestionsthatthisstudyaskstocometotheforeorganicallylikethevoiceofMcCullochpleadingforrestandprudentactionpriortotheonsetofamajorbattle.Internationalbankscannotbeconfidentunlesstheyunderstandtherisksofleveragingandtheneedtohaveenoughliquiditytomeetobligationsshouldasituationlike2007-2008rearitsheadoncemore.Simon(1972)wouldnotberemisstopointouttoday,however,thatknowingthecostsandbenefitsofanyactionhasbecomeincreasinglydifficult.Indeed,theout-goinggovernoroftheBankofEngland,MarkCarneyhasacknowledgedhowdifficultglobalissuesgeopoliticalconditionshavemadethingsforthebankingindustry(Giles,2017).AtJacksonHolein2019,CarneywentsofarastosuggestthatthedaysofUSDasreservecurrency,orratherascurrencyhegemon,werenumberedandtheendnowinsight.SuchachangeinstatusofacurrencyandanationthathavebeenattheapexoffinancialmarketsandeconomicdevelopmentsinceWorldWarII,wouldsurelycreatehavoc(aswellasopportunity)forcertainbanks,stakeholdersandinvestors.Thekeywouldbetoconsiderthemostrationalcourseofactionbycreatingsharedunderstanding,acceptingprudentrisk,andplanningaccordingly.Inotherwords,awarenessofwhatisgoingonintheglobaleconomyhasmadeitchallengingforbankingleadersinthecommunitytoknowhowtoadjusttheirpoliciesandproceduresbutitdoesnotmeanthatappropriateactioncannotbeapplied.Whatitdoessuggestisthatbanksneedtoengageinproperassessment,propercultivationofaspiritofmission,effectivecommunication,adequateriskmanagement,andprudentrisk-taking.TheyneedtobemindfulofthefaultsofVanDorn,AIGandLehmanandthinkmorelikeGoldman.Whiletheymaynotbelookingatcollateralizeddebtobligationsandcreditdefaultswapsorplottingarearattackagainsttheenemy,theywillhavetheirownuniquesetsofcircumstancestoprepareagainst.AsVanLerven(2016)pointedoutinreferencetoQEandwhichstandstobereiteratedhere:aftermorethanayearsinceitsinitialinception,areviewoftheprogrammesimpactrevealsthatpolicymakersshouldthinktwicebeforefurtherexpandingtheprogrammeandcouldbenefitfromconsideringmoredirectwaysofincreasingspendingintherealeconomy(p.237).Inshort,riskisrisingnowthequestionis:whoisreadyforit?2007-2008GlobalFinancialCrisisandTodayTobegintoassesstheliteratureonwhatitmeansforbankstobereadytoacceptprudentrisk,andtoactrationallyinthefaceofeconomicandfinancialcrises,onemustbeginwiththemostrecentcrisistoshaketheglobalmarketsandseewhatcanbelearnedfromit.Forthatreason,thesubprimecrisis,itsoriginsaswellasfalloutpresentsseverallessons.Lewis(2010)providedastronganalysisofwhattookplaceinthebackgroundofthecrisis,andMcLeanandNocera(2011)providedevenmoresubstantialdetailsintheiranalysisofthelead-uptothecrisis.However,bothfocusprimarilyonthedomesticcharacterofthecrisisandtherealityisthatitwasglobal.Thus,startingwiththeirtakesonthesubprimecrisisof2007-2008canprovidesomegroundwork,butthereisalsoaneedtoexpandtointernationalstudiestoseewhatotherresearchershavesaidaboutbanking,humancapital,rationalchoice,andsoon.Crucialtothesuccessofthisliteraturereviewisestablishinggroundsfortherelationshipbetweenriskssuchasgeopoliticalrisk,economic/financialrisk.SubprimeNumerousfactorsprecipitatedthesubprimecrisis.SomeblameAIGforinsuringwhatwereessentiallypoorlybundledandshoddilyratedmortgages(Lewis,2010).CompaniessuchasFannieMae,CountrywideFinancial,theFederalReserve,Moodys,MerrillLynch,BearStearns,GoldmanSachsandotherswereallinvolved,indicatingthatthefinancialcrisiswasnotanisolatedincidentthatsprangfromonefaultypolicyorfromonegroupofbadactors(Vo,2015).Rather,itwasatrainwrecksetinmotiondecadespriortothecrash.AsMcLeanandNocera(2011)show,thecrisisoriginatedinthe1990swiththeClintonAdministrationsdesiretogetmorepeopleintoaffordablehousing,whichacceleratedthetrendofriskylendingthatultimatelyledtosecuritizationofsubprimeloans.Yet,onecouldgoevenfurtherback,asLewis(2010)didbyimplicatingLewisRanieriofSalomonBrothersthebankingexecutivewhocreatedtheconceptofthemortgage-backedsecurity,whichallowedtheoriginallendertodivesthimselfoftheriskbysellingbundledloanstoinvestorsseekingyield(Ashton,2009).Brown(2019)showedthatitisthesamethirstamongyield-starvedinvestorsthatappearstobedrivingtodaysequitiesbubble,whichisrelatedtotheboom-bustcycleofcorporateleveragingacycleindicatingthatthebustphaseisapproaching.Oneofthebigissueswiththesubprimecrisis,however,wastheinstitutionalnegligence,deception,andself-deceptionamonginvestors.MichaelBurrywasoneofahandfulinvestorswhorealizedearlyonthatthemortgage-backedsecuritieswerecompiledofshoddysubprimeloansatahighriskofdefaulting(Lewis,2010).Hebetagainstthemarketbystockpilingcreditdefaultswaps(insuranceagainstthesecuritiesdefaultinganeventthathecorrectlyforesawlikelytooccur).TheratingsagencieswerecomplicitinratingthesesecuritieasAAA-ratedi.e.,ashavingaverylowriskofdefaultwhenthereality,asBurryconcluded,wasjusttheoppositeduetothecompositionofthesecuritiesandthenumberofsubprimeloanscompiledinthem(Lewis,2010).BurrysawwhatLehmanwithitsflawedcorporategovernancefailedtosee(Harris,2013).LehmanLehmanhadthesameriskprofileasGoldmanatthetimeofthesubprimecrisis(Harris,2013).TheproblemwasthatLehmanscorporategovernancewasflawed:thefirmhadacquirednotonebutfivemortgagelendersleadinguptoitscollapse.OneofthemBNCwaswhollyinvolvedinsubprimelending.AnotherAurorahadbeenlendingtoborrowerswhoprovidedzerodocumentationoftheirincomeornetworth(Greenfield,2010).Themoveappearedtobeprofitableduringthehousingboom.Whentheboomturnedintoabust,Lehmanheld$150billionworthofriskyloansonitsbooksjustfrom2006.Thefirmwasnotinsuredagainstthemandwasactivelyengagedinpurchasingmore,blissfullyunawareofthemountingrisk(Nilakantan,2010).TheriskyloansthemselveswerenottheworstpartasVo(2015)showedthatby2007CDShadbecomethedominantcreditmarketalready20timeslargerthanitssizein2000andwasthreetimesexceedingtheU.S.GDP,withanotionaloutstandingvalueof$57trillion(p.207).Whendefaultsbeganincreasinginnumberin2007,LehmansCFOrevealedacompletelackofconcern,tellinginvestorsthattherisingriskwasnotgoingtohaveasignificantimpactontheinstitution.Lehmanscorporategovernancehadfailedtocreateanenvironmentinwhichriskcouldbeproperlyassessed(Harris,2013).Harris(2013)notedagreatdealofemphasishadbeenputonrisk,buttheactualcauseofthecrisiswaspoorcorporategovernanceasriskmanagementisbutonefunctionwithinthebroaderroleofeffectivecorporategovernance.Corporategovernanceencompassesallthesignificantfunctionsoftheorganizationasitinteractswithitsstakeholders(Harris,2013,p.88).EvenafterLehmanwasforcedtoshutdownbothBNCandAurora,thecompanycontinuedtobuymortgage-backedsecuritiesatonepointhavingsomanyofthesetoxicsecuritiesthattheirvaluewasfourtimestheworthofinvestorsequityinthecompanyitself(Changetal.,2011).TheratingsagencieslikeMoodysonlyservedtopropuptheillusion,however,thatthesesecuritieswereworthhaving.Fromtheperspectiveofrationalchoicetheorywithaviewtothemissioncommandexampleprovidedearlier,therewasnosharedunderstandingcreatingamongthevariousentities:instead,therewassharedmass-deception.TheGroundwork.JustastodaytherehasbeenarushforyieldwiththeFederalFundsratedroppingtonearzeroandhoveringthereforyearsinthewakeoftheglobalfinancialcrisis.Inthelead-uptothehousingbubbleburstof2007interestrateshadbeensuppressedaswell.Thetechbubbleattheendofthe20thcenturyhadledtointerestratesfallingunder2%between2002and2005.Therates,thenasnow,promptedmoreborrowingandover-leveraging[somehomeownersbeganowning2,3or4homeswithnorealisticsalarytojustifysuchextravagance](Lewis,2010).Today,lowrateshaveledtocorporateborrowingatahyperrate(Lupton,2018),thusindicatingtosomethatapotentialriskcrisisislooming(Dimon,2018).Thegroundworkforthe2007-2008crisiswassimilarlylain:lowrates,extravagantborrowing,institutionslookingtheotherwayorshowingnegligentcorporategovernance.Itcreatedanenvironmentinwhichspeculatorsrushedintohomebuyingtoobtainaquickreturn.TheClintonAdministrationhadpushedforeasierlendingstandards,sothatattheheightofthebubblevirtuallyanyonecouldreceivealoanforahomewelloutoftheirpricerange(McLean&Nocera,2011).Inotherwords,demandforthesehomeswasartificialbutitwaspromotedbecausethefinancialtransactionsthatfollowedparticularlythesaleofmortgage-backedsecurities,collateralizeddebtobligations,creditdefaultswapsandsynthetics(Lewis,2010).ThiswasRanierisgiftchildtothefinancialworld.LenderslikeCountrywideFinancialwereeagertogetintothemarketandthateagernessreflectedalargerculturethroughoutthebankingandshadowbankingindustriesacultureofimprudentriskacceptance.Theinternationaldemandforfixedyieldspurredthecultureon(McLean&Nocera,2011).Thiswasnotexactlythekindoffixedyieldthatmademuchrationalsense,asBurryandothersuncovered(Lewis,2010).With20%ofallmortgageshavingahigh-riskcharacteritwasonlyamatteroftimebeforethesecuritiessoldcamebacktodestroyfunds.ThecreditdefaultswapswouldhavetobepaidoutandthatmeantPaulsonwouldhavetodeliverattheTreasury.CommentbyAuthor:Indeed!AppearstobeAPAstyle7theditionniceworkSedric.GoldmanSachsGoldmanisanotherexampleofafirmthatsoldcollateralizeddebtobligationstohelpprecipitatethecrisisbutatthesametime,itbeganbuyingcreditdefaultswapsinordertoprotectitselffromtheshoddyinvestmentsitwassellingtoclients(McDonald&Paulson,2015).McDonaldandPaulson(2015)pointedoutthatGoldmanSachshad44transactionswithAIG,withatotalnotionalvalueof$17.09billion(p.98).GoldmanendedupbeingchargedbytheSECwithFraudinConnectionwiththeStructuringandMarketingofaSyntheticCDO(SEC,2010)formisleadingandomittingmaterialfactsaboutitsfinancialproducts.Goldmanpaid$550milliontosettlethecasewiththeSECbutadmittednowrongdoing.Ironically,thechargeshadbutaminimalimpactonthefirmsshareprice.Goldmansstockwastradingat$180whenchargeswerefiled.Itfelltojustbelow$90bytheendofthefollowingyearin2011.Today,thestockistradingover$200.Goldmanmadenearly$5billionfromitsshortonAIGaloneduringthemarketmeltdownin2007-2008.ThefineitpaidtotheSECwasthusmerelyawristslapandthedamagetoitsreputationhasbeennegligible.Thereasonforthisissimple:Goldmanrepresentsthebestexampleofrationalchoicetheoryinaction.Itcommunicateseffectively,createsasharedsenseofunderstanding,andacceptsprudentrisk.ThatisonereasonforGoldmanselevatedsharepricetoday.Another,however,isQEquantitativeeasingunconventionalmonetarypolicybytheFederalReservethathasresultedininflatedequities(Heller,2017).QuantitativeEasing(QE)AsLimaetal.(2016)noted,quantitativeeasingessentiallyputtheworldscentralbanksinthepositionofbeingmarketbackstops,whichgreatlyunderminedtheroleofriskmanagement.Thecauseofthe2007-2008financialcrisiswasrootedincentralbankintervention,whichtookonanewcourseinresponsetothecrisisthroughtheapplicationofunconventionalmonetarypolicyknownasQE(Heller,2017).Theoutcomeofthatinterventionwasadistortioninmarketsandbubblesacrossarangeofassetclassesfromequitiestopreciousmetalstorealestate(Huston&Spencer,2018).ThecauseofthecrisiswasbasicallythesameastheFederalReservesresponsetothecrisis:thecentralbankwasartificiallysuppressinginterestrates.InresponsetotheDotCombubblethatburstatthestartofthe21stcentury,thecentralbankbegandrivingratesdown,whichledtorecklessborrowing(andlending),asLewis(2010)showed.Whensub-primeborrowersbegandefaultinginthehousingbubble,thejunkbondstradingasAAA-ratedsecuritiesbegancausingseriousfinancialstressamonginvestors,settingoffadomino-effectofdeleveragingasinstitutionsscrambledtodivest.TheFederalReservesteppedintobethebuyeroflastresort,andtohelpstimulatethemarketitloweredratesevenmore(withsomecountriestakingthemtozeroandevenintonegativeterritory).Theeffectwasinflationalongwithdebtincreasesamongcorporationsandgovernments,ascorporateandgovernmentborrowingwasincentivizedbylowrates:itappearedthatthecentralbanksaroundtheworldwereworkinginconjunctionwithoneanothertobackstopthemarkets(Haitsmaetal.,2016;VanLerven,2016).TheFederalReservehadfueledthebubblesbyeasingcreditrestraintsandeffectivelycreatingacommandeconomyasopposedtotheclassicalmodeloflaissez-fairemarketeconomy.ThecausesthataggravatedthefinancialcrisisduringtheperiodweretheFederalReservesinterventionistpolicy.Alltold,theFederalReservespent$4trilliontopropuporstimulatetheeconomyfrom2008to2014(Heller,2017).Thecentralbankboughtmortgage-backedsecuritiesthejunkbondsnooneelseinthemarketwantedandTreasuryNotes.Thishadaspillovereffectasmoneywentfrombondsintoequities,whichpromptlysoaredtoall-timehighs.HistoricP/EvaluationaverageswereleftbehindasindicatorsofanyvaluewhilegrowthstocksbecamethejustificationforP/Eratiosinthehundreds(Zhangetal.,2013).TherealresultofFederalReserveinterventionviaunconventionalmonetarypolicywasinflation,eveniftheCPIfailedtoshowitbecauseofitsusageofhedonicstomasktherealityofthepricerises.Housingpricessoared,rentssoared,foodcostshavegoneup,thepriceofhealthcarehasgoneup,thepriceofeducationhasgoneup,thepriceofstockshasgoneup,thepriceofbondshasgoneup,thepriceofpreciousmetalshasgoneup.TheFederalReservefloodedthemarketwithnewmoneyinashortspanoftime,which,asMiltonFriedmanhaspointedoutonmorethanoneoccasion,isthebestwaytotriggerinflation.Thus,onecouldargethatthesearenotgenuinebubblesacrossassetclassesbutrathertheeffectofinflationarypracticesbytheFederal.However,theyappearasbubblesparticularlywhentradewarsstarttocauseinvestorstowanttopulltheirinvestmentsoutofriskassetsandsuddenlyequitieslookovervaluedtotheextremeastheircurrentvaluationhasbeenbasedonFederalpolicyratherthanonactualpricediscoverydictatedbythemarketitselfanditfocusonfundamentals.Ineithercase,itisuncertainandperhapsunlikelythattheFederalReservewillbeabletosupportmarketsagainusingthesamepolicywithouttriggeringhyperinflationshouldanothercrashand/orrecessionoccurinthecomingyears.Themoremoneyitcreatesthemorevaluethedollarlosesespeciallyaswagesstayrelativelystagnant.DuringthesameperiodinwhichtheFederalwasconductingunconventionalmonetary,thegovernmentwasengaginginafiscalpolicyofborrowingatanunsustainablerate.Thenationaldebthasmorethandoubledsincethecrisis.Thisexponentialincreaseofdebt(notjustbythegovernmentbutalsobycorporations)atatimewheninterestratesarelowisnowseenasaseriousrisk(Dimon,2017).Neitherpolicyshouldhavebeenenacted.Thebadinvestmentsaroundmortgage-backedsecuritiesshouldhavebeenallowedtofail.Thecrashthatwasdelayedshouldhavebeenallowedtohappen.Themarketshouldhavebeenpermittedtocorrectitself.Theproblem,asthegovernmentandcentralbankseesit,isthatshouldfailurehavebeenpermitted,pensionfunds,sovereignwealthfunds,mutualfunds,etc.wouldallhavecrushedanditwouldhavebeentheendoftheeconomicpyramidschemethathasbeeninplacesincemonetarypolicyundertheKeynesianmodelwasputinplace.Thepolicythatshouldhavebeenimplementedandthatwouldhaveresolvedthefinancialcrisiswouldbetoreturntoclassicaleconomictheoryandallowthemarkettocorrectitselfandfortruepricediscoverytooccur.Itwouldhavemeantaworldofpainbutthecrisiseventuallywouldhavebeenaddressedorganicallybythemarketinsteadofthemarketbeingcommandedbythecentralbank.EvenChairPowellhadurgedtheFederalReservenottoreversecourseonquantitativetightening.MoreQEisnotgoingtohelptocreateanenvironmentofaccountabilitythoughitwillforatimepushmarketshigher.However,politicalfactorshavecometoplayinthematterinrecentmonthsasformerNYFederalPresidentBillDudleypubliclyurgedPowellandtheFederalReservetopunishPresidentTrumpbyrefusingtounderwritehistradewarwithChina(Durden,2019).Inotherwords,DudleytoldtheFednottolowerratesortoengageinQE.Thisisapoliticalmovetobesure,butitisalsoanindicationthatthelinesbetweenmarketsandpoliticshavebeenblurred,andthatlinewassubstantiallyblurredbyPaulsonandGoldmanwhocertainlyconspiredtomakesurethatthebankreceiveditsdue.Dudleyiscorrect,however,accordingtocriticsoftheFederal(Durden,2019).Thebalancesheetshouldberunoffandinterestratesshouldbeallowedtoriseasthemarketdeterminesthemnotthecentralbank.Thezombiecorporationscurrentlyrelyingonlowratestosecureinvestmentwillhavetorestructureordeclarebankruptcy,naturallybutsavingsandinvestmentmustco-exist.Commandeconomiesarefantasiesthatcannotlast.Realityalwaysreassertsitselfandthelongeritiskeptlockedaway,thefiercerandmoredevastatingitsarrivaliswhenitfinallyreturns.Topreventfutureeconomiccrises,interestratesmustnotbeartificiallysetbythecentralbank.ThemarketmustbeallowedtoengageintruepricediscoveryanddeterminewhatisbestforitselfratherthantheFederalattemptingtodeterminewhatisbestforthevariousfundsdependinguponROItoperpetuatethepyramidscheme.WhereThingsStandWhilePresidentTrumphasofteninsistedthatthisisthebesteconomyever,therearesignsthatthismightnotbetrueandthosesignscanbeseenintermsofhowoneinterpretslabormarketdata(unemploymentvs.laborparticipationrate),wagesvs.inflation,andincomeinequality(BBC,2019).SincetheFederalReservealongwiththeothercentralbanksoftheworldengagedinunconventionalmonetarypolicyakaquantitativeeasinginresponsetotheglobaleconomiccrisisof2007-2008,assetpriceshaveincreasedexponentiallywhetheroneislookingattheS&P500,housingcosts,healthcarecosts,educationcosts,orevenpreciousmetals(whichareknownfortrackinginflation).Now,withthePresidentcallingforratecutsandtheFederalrespondingwitha25-basispointmid-cyclecutattheendofJuly,thesameissuesofwagegrowth,incomeinequalityandlabormarketparticipationremain.Cox(2019)statedthatthecurrentlabormarketshowssignsoftighteningassmallbusinessesareshowingsignsofslowingdown:Hamperingjobgrowtharelaborshortages,layoffsatbricks-and-mortarretailers,andfalloutfromweakerglobaltrade(par.5).Inthepastthelaborforceparticipationratewasdefinedbythetypeofjobsthatlaborersarewillingtoacceptandifthosejobsarenotavailable,workersdonotactivelyseekemploymentelsewhereandthusarenotcountedintherate.Today,thefactthatmanufacturingandhigh-skilledlaborjobsarenotcomingbackandinsteadarebeingshippedoverseasorbeingreplacedbyrobots,suggeststhatworkersarenowwillingtotakewhattheycangetintheservicesindustry.ThissentimentisechoedbyHarwood(2019),whostatedthatthereasonsincomeinequalityissuchanissuetodayarethattechnology(robots)havemovedworkersfromthelabormarketandglobalizationhasincreasedcompetitionandthuscorporationspaylowerwages.ThissituationwidensthegapbetweentherichandthepoorespeciallysincethewealthycanbuytheS&P500yearafteryearandseetheirwealthgrowby20%thankstothecentralbankalwaysbeingtheretobackstopthemarkets.Harwoods(2019)argumentisthatincomeinequalityisanissueinAmericathatpoliticianswanttoaddressbyraisingtheminimumwageandincreasingworkersrights.However,Trumpsbasebelieveslikehimthatthisisthebesteconomyeverwithunemploymenthittingmulti-yearlowsandjobgrowthimprovingunderhisadministration.Bernstein(2019)tookadifferentpositiononthetoplabormarket,however.Hestatedthatinaneconomywithtoolittleworkerbargainingpowerandtoomuchinequality,thebenefitsofclosinginonfullemploymentarepowerfulandequalizing(Bernstein,2019,par.2).TheauthorclaimedthatmostAmericanworkersdonothavethemeanstobargainforbetterwagesbecauseunionmembershipisdown.Jobsthatusedtobeassociatedwithunionsi.e.,manufacturingjobshavebeensentoverseaswherecorporationscanhirecheaperlaborresultedinalackoforganizingforcethatworkerscanturntoforhelpingettingbetterwages.Thisleadstonowagegrowthandthecentralbanksroleininflatingassetpricesleadstothewideningoftheincomeinequalitygap.Yet,lowunemploymentshouldbeleadingtoarebalancingofpowerinthefavorofworkers(Bernstein,2019).Theproblemwiththethesesoftheseauthorsisthatthereisnorealroomforexplainingthelackofwagegrowth,incomeinequalityandthelabormarketwithoutexaminingtheeffectsofcentralbankinginterventionsince2008,theeffectsofoffshoringinaglobalizedeconomy,andthereasonsforincomeinequalityinthefirstplace.TheproblemofstagnantwagegrowthoverthepastfewdecadesisthatthePhillipsCurveisnotreallyaneffectivetoolatpredictingtherelationshipbetweeninterestrates(inflation)andemployment(wagegrowth),asMiltonFriedmanfamouslyargued.Theproblemofwagestagnationisonethathasstemmedfromglobalizationandthefactthatcorporationsarenowfiercelycompetitiveasaresultofthewideningmarkets.AmericanandEuropeancompaniesarenowcompetingwithAsiancompaniesandinordertocompetepricesarebeingslashed.Tokeepmarginsintact,thecompaniesmustresorttohiringcheaplabor.ThismeansoffshoringforAmericans,whichdecimatesthelabormarketintheU.S.andEuropeasjobsareshippedtoAsia,wherewageslavesworkforpenniesonthedollarmuchinthesamewayprisonersintheU.S.workforpenniesonthedollarforcorporationswhooutsourcelabortotheprisonindustrialcomplex.Theproblemthusisoneofcorporategovernanceandcorporatesocialresponsibility.Corporationshaveadutytoprotectthecommunitiesaroundthemandwhentheyoffshoretheirlabor,theydotheircommunitiesamajordisservicethathasrealeconomicconsequences.Alackoflaboropportunitiesovertimemeansthatindividuals,manyofwhomaregraduatingwithacollegedegree,willnotbeabletofindworkinthefieldsforwhichtheyhavebeentrained.Withdebtssuchasstudentloanbillsandcarorhousepaymentstoservice,theytakewhatworktheycangeteventuallyandendupintheservicesindustry.Thisexplainswhyallthenewjobsaddedinrecentmonthscanbefoundinservices:thereissimplynootherrealworkavailableintheU.S.Automationhasovertakenwhatremainsofmanylow-skilledjobs(andtheresthavebeenoffshored),whichmeansunlessoneisenteringahighlyskilledindustrythathasnotyetbeentakenoverbyrobots,oneisunlikelytohavemanyotheroptionsthanenteringservices.Andwhilethecostofserviceshasincreasedovertheyears,wageearnershavenotseenmuchofanincreaseinwagesbecausecompaniesarestillbasicallycompetigatsuchahighlevelthattheycannotaffordtoincreasethewagesoftheirworkers.Thus,wheneverminimumwagesareraisedinstates,thereisblowbackfrombothsmallandlargebusinessesintermsoflayingoffemployees.Ifworkersaregoingtobepaidmore,moreisgoingtobeexpectedofthemandtheywillberequiredtodomoreworkthatwaspreviouslydonebymoreemployees.However,asthecentralbankhaschosentobackstopthemarketssothatpensionfunds,mutualfunds,insurancefundsandsovereignwealthfundscanbestbeensuredofgettingsomesortofreturn(whichisneededtokeepthepromisesalive),thosewithwealthcansimplyinvestinthemarketsandseepositiveandlargereturns.Todayseconomyismaybevergingonrecession,thoughFederalmembersmaynotwishtoadmitit(Heller,2017).ThemanufacturingsectorintheU.S.hasbeenguttedbyyearsofoffshoringandnow,asaresultofQEandinterestratesuppression,corporationsareaddictedtoeasycreditandcannottolerateanyraisingofratesbecausetheywillnotbeabletoservicethedebtstheyhavetakenon(Heller,2017).TheyareliketheU.S.governmentinthatsense.Wageswillremainstagnantunlessminimumwagelawsforcehikes.However,forcingwagehikeswillonlyleadtomorelayoffsandthegreaterimplementationofautomation.Incomeinequalitywillremainsolongasthecentralbankremainsthebuyeroflastresort.Thelabormarketwillcontinuetooffermainlyjobsinservices,asthisisallthatwillbeleftafteroffshoringandautomationhaveaccomplishedwhattheownersofthemeansofproductionintended.Clearlythereisagreatdealofriskinallthisthatmustbeconsidered.RiskandtheBankingCommunityIndeterminingtherelationshipbetweenperceptionsofriskintheinternationalbankingcommunityandhowriskmanagementisconducted,severalresearchershaveposeddifferentquestionstohelpunderstandthisrelationship.WiththeGreatRecessionstillfreshinthemindsofmanyandthepossibilityofanother,worserecessionlooming,understandingthedegreetowhichinternationalbanksareintegratedcanhelptodevelopasenseofwhetherdefaultsinonepartoftheworldsay,Italywillimpacttheentireinternationalbankingcommunity.ThestudybyBouvatierandDelatte(2015)measuredtheextenttowhichinternationalbanksareintegratedbyexamininga)theassetsideofbankstodocumenttheadjustmentoftheirforeignclaimsacrosstime,b)bilateralpositions,andc)thecurrentstateofbanking(dis)integrationindifferentgeographicalareas(p.354).Themainvariablethatthearticleexamines,therefore,isinternationalbankingintegrationbuttomeasurethisvariable,aseriesofothervariablesneededtobemeasured.ThesevariablesincludecountriesGDP,geographicaldistance,commonlanguage,commonborder,whetherornottheyaremembersoftheEconomicIntegrationAgreementandtheEuropeanEconomicArea,alongwithbilateralflowsandanumberofotherindexessuchastheChinn-Itoindexandthelegalstructureandpropertyrightsindex.Amongthe14reportingcountriesand186partnercountriesduringtheperiod19992012,theresearchersfoundstrikingdivisioninsidetheeuroarea,whileoutsidetheeuroareatheinternationalbankingcommunityhasbecomeevenmoreintegratedthanbefore.Inshort,theintegrationofEUbankshasreversedwhiletheintegrationofbanksthroughouttherestoftheworldhasprogressedmoredramaticallythanbeforetheGreatRecession.Thestudyishelpfulforshowingadivergenceoftrendsbetweentheeuroareabanksandthebanksoftherestoftheworld.Itrepresentsaseriousrisktobanksbothinsidetheeuroareaandbanksoutsidetheeuroareabutfordifferentreasons.However,thestudyendswithmorequestionsthananswers.Forinstance,doestheretrenchmentintheeuroareaindicatethatinternationalbankinghastransferredtooutsidetheeuroarea?Ifso,whattailriskdoesthatimposeoninternationalbankingshouldadefaultorcollapseoccur,whetherinItalyorinChinaorintheU.S.?ThestudybyBrunoandShin(2015)examinedthestateofinternationalbankinginlightoflowinterestratessincetheGreatRecessionandtherisk-takingchannelsthathaveopenedupasaresult.Therelationshipbetweenloosemonetarypolicyandbankingleverageadjustmentshaveassistedinaglobalrisk-onstrategyintheinternationalbankingcommunity.Therelationshiphasgeneratedafeedbackloopbetweenincreasedleverageofglobalbanksandcapitalflowsamidcurrencyappreciationforcapitalrecipienteconomies(Bruno&Shin,2015,p.119).Thevariablesmeasuredbytheresearchersarea)theFederalFundsrateandb)theVIXakavolatilityindex.Therelationshipbetweenthesetwovariablesindicatesthatasinterestratesaresuppressed,theVIXfollowssuit,whichhasanoppositeeffectontheequitiesmarketandcapitalflowsintorisk-oninvestmentsaroundtheworld.Thisstudyclarifiestherecentriseinvolatilityin2018.TheFederalFundsratehadbeenincreasing[untilthe25-bpscutmid-cycleasPowellputitinsummer2019](Cox,2019),andundernewFederalChairPowelltheexpectationuptothesummerwasthatinterestrateswouldcontinuetorise.ThemarketsawVIXincreaseinFebruary2018andagaininDecemberof2018,astheFederalReservecommunicatedtothemarketitsintentiontocontinueraisingrates.However,therecentcommentsbyPowellunderpressurefromPresidentTrump,whohadgonesofarastocallPowellanenemyofthestateviaTwitter,coupledwiththecallfromDudley(2019)fortheFederalReservetostopunderwritingTrumpstradewarbyloweringrates,meansthatconfusionandinstabilityarecirculatingthroughmarkets.Yieldcurveshaveinverted.GermanyhasseentwonegativeprintsofGDP(Constable,2019).Whatthismeansfortheinternationalbankingcommunityandtheflowofcapitalintorisk-takingchannelsshouldbeofevidentconcern.Astheresearchersconclude,therisk-takingchannelofmonetarypolicymayyieldinsightsintothetransmissionofgloballiquidityconditionsacrossborders(p.132).Afterall,withUSDsroleininternationalbanking,financialimplicationsofrisingbondyieldsforfixedincomecouldbedevastatingforemergingmarkets,equities,andallmanneroffundsandinstitutionsthathavegrownaccustomedtoreceivingliquidityfromthehandsoftheFederal.Kanagaretnametal.,(2015)examinedthevariablesa)risk-taking,b)religiosity,c)transparencyinfinancialaccounting,andd)timelyrecognitionofnegativenewsthatcouldwreckinvestmentsifotherwisemissed.Theresearchersfoundanegativerelationshipbetweenreligiosityandrisk-takingamonginternationalbanksi.e.,themorethatreligionplayedapartinthecultureandlivesofanation,thelesslikelythosebanksweretosuffercalamitouslyduringthe2007-2008economiccrisis.Thelessreligionfiguredintothenationsculture,themorelikelythosecountriesbanksweretotakerisksandignoresignalsofimpendingcollapse.Thestudyisinterestingbecauseithumanizestheinternationalbankingsectorinawaythatistooinfrequentlyseen.Insteadoffocusingonmodels,economicdata,andsoon,theresearcherslookedatthecharacterandinstinctsofthepeoplewhoactuallyrunthebanks.ThefindingsofKanagaretnametal.(2015)indicatedthatreligiouspeopleandculturesareessentiallyriskadverse.Thebanksinthesecountries,itisshown,faredwellincomparisontothebanksofcountrieswherenomoderatingreligiousinfluencecouldbeidentified.Theimplicationsofthisstudyforthispaperarethatriskimpulsesininternationalbankingmayhaveasmuchtodowiththecharactersandculturalformationofthebankersthemselvesasitdoeswiththeeconomicandfinancialmodelsthatthebanksemploy.Ameasureoftheextenttowhichreligionplaysaroleintodaysinternationalbankingsectorcouldbeagoodindicatorofwhattoexpectinthecomingyears,knowingthatallthedominoesarelinedup,sotospeak,asBouvatierandDeLatte(2015)andBrunoandShin(2015)haveshown.Aculturalcuefrommodernsocietycouldbejustonemoreinputtoconsiderparticularlysincetheonebigrationally-actingbankfromthe2007-2008crisisGoldmanSachsalsowasaccusedofactingexceedinglyunethicallybytheSECandcompelledtopayahalfbilliondollarfine(admittedlyapittanceforGoldmanSachs,butanindicationnonethelessofthecultureofthefirm).ThestudybyWeietal.,(2014)correlateswiththestudybyKanagaretnametal.(2015)intermsofwhatregulatestheinternationalbankingsectorand,specifically,thedecisionsofsomebankstoadoptrisk-onversusrisk-offstrategies.Thevariablesexaminedbytheresearcherswere:a)banksize,b)leverage,c)non-interestincome,andd)thequalityofthebankscreditportfoliotoseeifthesewereinfluentialfactorsintheriseorfallofsystemicriskduringperiodsofglobalfinancialcrisis.Surprisingly,theresearchersfoundthatthereisnoempiricalevidencetosupportthetheorythatthesizeofthebank,itsdebt,itsnon-interestincomeleveloritscreditportfoliohaveanythingtodowithsystemicrisk.Whattheydidfindcontributestotheriseorfallofsystemicriskwastheregulatoryregimeoftheindividualbanksnations.Ifregulationswerelax,bankbehaviorwaslaxandmorerisk-onintermsofhavingabankingstrategy.Ifregulationsweretight,theoppositewastrue:banksdisplayedmoreriskaersion.Thisstudythus,inaway,corroboratesthefindingsofKanagaretnametal.(2015),whoalsoshowedthatunlessthereisamoderatinginfluence(whichtheylinkedwithreligionanditsimpactonanationsculture)banksaroundtheworldwilladoptrisk-onstrategiesthatcangoexplosivelywrongwhentheso-calledmusicstops.Thisstudyrevealstheultimatefactorinthelevelofsystemicriskatthelocalleveltheregulatoryregime.Wherestrictregulatoryregimesexist,lowlevelsofsystemicriskarefoundinperiodsoffinancialcrises.Thequestionthatcanbedrawnfromthereforeareregulationstighterinsomecountriesandlooserinothers?BydrawingonthestudybyKanagaretnametal.(2015)onecouldarguethatthereligiouscultureofthenationmayhavesomethingtodowithitsregulatoryframework.ThevariablesexaminedbyWongetal.,(2015)were:a)liquidityrisk,b)loangrowth,c)risktransmission,andd)USDliquidity.TheirresearchfocusedonliquidityriskinHonkKongandwaspartofaseriesofstudiesconductedforanIMFsymposiumonliquidityriskintheinternationalbankingsector.Theresearchersfoundthathome-countryliquidityriskwaslessofaninfluentialfactoronrisktransmissionthanUSDliquidity.Inotherwords,theirfindingcorrespondswiththefindingofBrunoandShin(2015)thatthemainfactorinthestabilityoftheinternationalbankingsectoristheUSD.Thispointshoulddrivehomeanimportantmessagefortheinternationalbankingcommunity,especiallyastheworldbeginstoassesstheconsequencesofamonumentaltradewarbetweenXiandTrump,ChinaandtheU.S.,withapotentialhotwarbetweentheWestononesideandaSino-Russianallianceontheother.WithChinabeingthelargestholderofU.S.treasuriesintheworld,anycalculatedmovedesignedtocrushthedollarcanandhasbeenanticipatedbymarketobservers.However,therealriskamonginternationalbanksisUSDliquidity.GeopoliticalRiskEffectonLiquidityDomms(2019)articleentitledFallingInterestRatesAreSendingAWarningSignalToTheStockMarketpostedonCNBCMarketfocusedonthefactthatbondyieldsarefalling,signalingarushbyinvestorsintosafehavenassets(bonds)andoutofriskassets(equities).Thesignalforthemarketisthatasbondyieldscontinuetofallandeveninvert(withtheshortendyieldgoinghigherthanthelongend)thestockmarketcouldbefacingaseverepullbackandtheeconomyoverallcouldbefacingarecession.Domm(2019)explainedhow,asinvestorsbecomenervousabouttheglobaleconomicoutlook,theyturntothesafetyofgovernmentbondslikeU.S.Treasuriesforafixedreturnoninvestmentasopposedtoparkingtheircapitalinhigh-pricedstocksthatcouldtumblewitheconomiccrisespotentiallyaroundthecorner(suchasatradewarwithChinaescalating).IndeedDomm(2019)pointedoutthattradewarfearsmaybeattheheartofthecurrentfalloftheS&Pandthecurrentriseinthepriceofbonds.Asthepriceofbondsgoesup(itmeanstheyareinmoredemand)theyieldgoesdown(itisnotnecessarytoenticebuyerswithhigheryieldswhenthebuyersarewillingtotakeloweronesjustsotheycanbesuretohavesomethinggivingthemasafeROI).AsDomm(2019)noted,TreasuryyieldshavebeenmovingloweronworriesabouttheU.S.economyandtradewars.Theyieldsi.e.,interestratesareasignalofwhatthefutureholds,Dommnoted,referringtoaCreditSuisseanalystforanexplanationofwhysinkingyieldsmattertothemarket.Itisnotsomuchthattheyieldsthemselvesmatteritiswhatthefallingyieldssignifythatshouldmattertoinvestors.Investorswhoarestilltiedupinhigh-pricedequitiesmaywanttorethinktheirinvestments,asthebondmarketistellingthemthatinvestorsarenolongerinterestedinriskassets:theywantsafetyespeciallynowthatitappearsthatthetradewarbetweentheU.S.andChinahasnotbeenavertedbutisratherlikelytoincreaseinscaleandscope.Thatisthebigworryforinvestorsbecause,asbothcountriesslaptariffsononeanothersproducts,itmeansbusinessesaregoingtofindithardertomakemoney.That,inturn,meansbottomlinesaregoingtoshrinkanddividendswilldryup.Stockpriceswillfall,andbagholderswillsuffer.Smartmoneyisthusmakinganexodustohavenassetsanddumbmoneyisstillthinkingthatbuyingthedipisastrategythatwillwork.Inabullmarketitdoesworkbutthetradewarmaybesignalingthatthemarketisturningbearishandthatappearstobewhatthebondmarketissaying.Investorswantsafety,notrisk.Equitiesarerisky.Bondsaresafe.ThereisnotmuchupsideinequitiesatthispointinthecycleunlesstheFederalintervenesbutiftheFederaldoesnotlowerratesinSeptember(2020)andsignaltotheworldthatmoreiscoming,therewillbeawholelotofdownsiderisk.Forthatreason,investorsarelikelytobegingettingoutofthestockmarketinahasteandpouringmoreintobondsandothersafehavenassets.Theonlysourceprovidingliquidityatthatpointwillbecorporationsengagingincorporatebuybacks,whichareatrecordhighs(Rooney,2019).Ifaliquiditycrunchappears,arebankspreparedtohandleit?DobankersbelieveitcouldspelltroubleforthempersonallyiftheFederalfailstoacti.e.,tointervene?WithaformerFederalPresidentcallingforthecurrentFederalPresidenttoresisttheAmericanPresidentsoverturesandessentiallyallowthemarkettocrashsomethingBillMaherhasbeencallingforontelevisionaswell,statingthattheonlywaytodefeatTrumpin2020istohavethemarketcrashsignalsthatpoliticsandeconomicsareinterrelatedaswell.Cultureandeconomicsarecertainlyissuing,andthatshouldbeexploredmoreindepth.HuangandShang(2019)showed,forexample,themeritsofinvestigatingtherelationshipbetweensocialcapitalandcorporateborrowingwheretheyfoundapositivecorrelation.Over-LeveragedInstitutionsandFirmsHuangandShang(2019)foundadirectcorrelationbetweensocialcapitalandresponsiblebankingintheirstudyonleverage,debtmaturity,andsocialcapital.Theirfindingisinlinewithwhatotherresearchershaveshowninthepast,specificallyKanagaretnametal.,(2015)intheirstudyonthelinkbetweenasocietysreligiosityandabanksrisk-taking.Kangaretnametal.(2015)showedthatbankersrisk-taking,religiosity,transparencyinfinancialaccounting,andtimelyrecognitionofnegativenewsthatcouldsinkinvestmentsifotherwisemissed,wereallrelatedinnationsthatavoidedbeingnegativelyimpactedbythe2008greateconomiccrisis.HuangandShang(2019)essentiallyarriveatthesameconclusion:themoresocialcapitalisvaluedinthecommunity;themorelikelybanksaretoleverageresponsibly.HuangandShang(2019)startedofftheirstudybydefiningsocialcapitalasthedegreeofaltruistictendencyandthelevelofmutualtrustamongpeoplewithinacommunity(p.26).Thisdefinitionallowedthemtoassertthat,whenalocalehasahighdegreeofsocialcapital,theindividualmembersoftheregionarelessself-centered,morecooperativeandmoretrustworthythaninlowsocialcapitalregions.Asaresultofthehighsocialcapitallevel,thefinancemanagersofbanksinthesecommunitiesaremorelikelytomanagefundsresponsiblyandtoresistbehavinginawaythatcouldpotentiallyharmtheirinvestorsandclients.Astheresearcherspointedout,thisrelationshipisaconsequenceoftheirsocietyreflectingwhotheyare,shapingwhotheybecome,orforcingthemtobemoreconcernedaboutreputationlossesbeforetakingvalue-destroyingactions(Huang&Shang,2019,p.27).Becausethemanagershandletheirmoneymorewiselyandresponsibly,theythemselvesareinturnviewedasmorecrediblebytheirclientsandinvestors.Becauseleverageincreasesbankrisk,theresearchershypothesizedthatfirmsinhighsocialcapitalmarketsarelesslikelytoleverageandaccrueshort-termdebt,whichtheresearchersidentifyasantitheticaltosocialcapital.Theresearchersdidindeedfindthatfirmsheadquarteredinhighsocialcapitalareasareindeedassociatedwithlowerleverageandlessshort-termdebt(Huang&Shang,2019,p.44).Moreover,banksinhighsocialcapitalcommunitieshavebothlowercostsofdebtandlowercostsofequity(Huang&Shang,2019).Thesefindingsindicatethatdevelopinghighsocialcapitalwithinacommunitycanreducerisksassociatedwithbankingleverageandlackofoversightasthecommunityitselfservesasakindofculturaloversightcommittee.ThisfindingisconsistentwithwhatKanagaretnametal.(2015)haveshown:thereisanegativerelationshipbetweenreligiosityandrisk-takingamonginternationalbanks;thatistosaythemorethatreligionplaysapartinthecultureandinthelivesofapeople,thelesslikelybanksaretosuffercalamitouslyduringacrisisinwhichmargincallsforcethemtosell,closeoutpositionsandtakelossesjusttolivetoseeanotherday.Thelessreligionfiguresintoacommunitysculture,themorelikelythebanksinthatcommunityaretotakerisksandignoresignalsofimpendingcollapse.TheydonotfindthemselvesbeholdentostakeholdersinthecommunitythatisessentiallyhowHuangandShang(2019)putit,andthatiswhatKanagaretnametal.(2015)alsoindicated.ThemethodusedbyHuangandShang(2019)totesttheirhypothesiswastocollectdatafrombanksoverathirty-yearperiodcoveredbytheintersectionofCompustatandCRSPfrom1985to2015(p.28)Thesamplewasquitelargeandconsistedof56,840firm-yearobservationswith7,811uniquefirmsfortheleverageestimationsand57,417firm-yearobservationswith7,844uniquefirmsfortheshort-termdebtestimations(Huang&Shang,2019,p.29).Theresearchersthenusedbookleverageandmarketleveragetotesttherelationshipbetweenleverageandsocialcapitalusingavarietyofcontrolsrecommendedbypreviousliterature.Controlvariablesfordebtstructureincluded:firmsize,firmsizesquared,leverage,market-to-book,abnormalearnings,assetmaturity,assetvolatility,R&D,missingR&Ddummy,regulationindustrydummy,creditratingdummy,andtermstructureofinterestrate(Huang&Shang,2019,p.29).Inordertomeasuresocialcapitalofaregion,theresearchershadtoconstructthevariablebydefiningitasthedegreeofmutualtrustwithintheregion.Themeasuresofsocialcapitalincludedacountylevelsocialcapitalindexdevelopedbypreviousresearchersandstatelevelsocialcapitalindexalsodevelopedbypriorresearchers.ThefirstwastheRGFindex.ThelatterwasthePutnamindex.DescriptivestatisticsshowedthecorrelationandvalidationofthehypothesisputforwardbyHuangandShang(2019).AsignificanttheoreticalapproachtothestudybyHuangandShang(2019),rootedinsocialpsychology,wouldsuggestthattherelationshipbetweentrustworthiness,selflessness,andcooperationandbankslackofincentivetoover-leveragereflectsthevalueassociatedbyotherresearcherswhohavelinkedbankingresponsibilitywithreligiosity.Somethingaboutreligiousregionsandmarketsputsatemperinginfluenceonbankingbehaviorandmoderatesthedesireofbankersintheseregionstoseektoover-leverageandriskfinancialcapitalattheexpenseofsocialcapital.Thestudyisinterestingbecauseithumanizesthebankingsectorinawaythatistooinfrequentlyseen.Insteadoffocusingonmodels,economicdata,andsoon,theresearchersconsideredthecharacterandinstinctsofthepeoplewhorunthebanks.Whatmotivatesthesepeopletoinvest,tolend,toborrowandtoleverage?Whatistheinfluenceofsocialcapitalontherisk-takingimpulseoftheseindividuals?Howdotheirimpulsesimpacttheoverallbankandhowdotheirbanksstandincomparisontobankswheresocialcapitaldoesnotfigurepredominantlyintotheirculture?Thefindingssuggestthathighsocialcapitalmarketsderivefromculturesthatareessentiallyriskadverse.Thebanksinthesemarketsfacelessstress,havelowerdebt-maturityratios,andhavelowerdebtandequitycostsincomparisontothebanksofregionswherenomoderatingsocialcapitalinfluencecanbefound.Theimplicationsofthisstudyarethatriskimpulsesinbankingmayhaveasmuchtodowiththecharactersandculturalformationofthebankersthemselvesastheydowiththeeconomicandfinancialmodelsthatthebanksemploy.Onecouldmakethecasethatleverageincreasesoversightandthusmakesbanksmoreresponsibletothemselves(Harris&Raviv,1990;Rajan&Winton,1995),butasHuangandShang(2019)showed,thisresponsibilityissuperficialatbestbecausethatoversightdoesnotnegatethenewrisksthatarecreatedthatcouldpotentiallyleadtosignificantlosses,defaultsorcollapses.Attheendoftheday,itisthebankerswhorunthesystemthemodelsareonlytools.Thetoolsstillhavetobeusedbymindsthataregoingtobegovernedbysomeforceexternaltothemselves.Ifself-centerednessistheoppositeofsocialcapital,thenselflessnessmustbysynonymouswithsocialcapitalandaforceofgovernancethatisoutsidetheselfmustthereforeberequiredinorderforbankingfirmstooverseetheirownactions,lendingandborrowinginawaythatisinalignmentwiththevaluesofthehighsocialcapitalcommunity.Ifbankmanagerslackawarenessofthisexternalguidanceandviewthemselvesasresponsibleonlytothemselves,theyaremorelikelytorelymoreheavilyonmarginandriskassetsandcollateraltofinanceinvestmentschemesthatcouldbackfireifunforeseenriskssuddenlybecomelegitimatethreats.Ifthereisnomoderatinginfluenceofbankersrisk-takingimpulses,theinternationalbankingsectorcouldbeinabadwayandinfact,as2007-2008showed,thisisexactlywhathasbeenseenbefore.Thus,thestudybyHuangandShang(2019)iscorroboratednotonlybytheworkofotherresearchersinthefieldwhohaveexaminedthisexactsamelineofthoughtbutalsobytheevidencebroughtforwardbyreality.Ameasureoftheextenttowhichsocialcapitalplaysaroleintodaysbankingsectorcouldbeagoodindicatorofwhattoexpectinthecomingyears,knowingthattheinterconnectednessoffinancefirmsaroundtheworldisasstrongasever,asBouvatierandDeLatte(2015)andBrunoandShin(2015)haveshown.AsBrunoandShin(2015)noted,therisk-takingchannelofmonetarypolicymayyieldinsightsintothetransmissionofgloballiquidityconditionsacrossborders(p.132).ThisisparticularlyimportanttoconsiderinlightofthestudybyHuangandShang(2019)duetotheUSDsroleininternationalbanking,forfinancialimplicationsofrising(orsinkingasthecasemaybe)bondyieldsforfixed-incomecouldbedevastatingforemergingmarkets,equities,andallmanneroffundsandinstitutions.ThefindingsofHuangandShang(2019)couldalsobeextrapolatedandappliedtotheenvironmentoffinanceasawhole.Theresearchersshowedthattheirstudycontainedahighdegreeofrobustnessandthereforeitsgeneralizabilityiswell-suitedformakingthefollowingargument:Ifregulationsofbankinginstitutionsarelaxasaresultofcommunity(local,state,regional,nationalorinternational)standardsarelax(i.e.,beingformedbylowsocialcapitalcommittees),bankbehaviorwillbelaxandmorerisk-onintermsofemployingahigh-leveragingbankingstrategy.Ifregulationsaretight(becauseoftheirbeingformedbyhighsocialcapitalcommittees),theoppositeislikelytotrue:bankswilldisplaymoreriskaversion.ThisideacanbecorroboratedbythefindingsofHuangandShang(2019)aswellasofKanagaretnametal.(2015),whoalsohaveshownthatunlessthereisamoderatinginfluenceaninfluencewhichtheylinkedwithreligionanditsimpactonanationsculturebanksaroundtheworldwilladoptrisk-onstrategiesthatcangoexplosivelywrongwheneconomieshittheirlimitsandmarginsarecalled.Inotherwords,wherestrictregulatoryregimesexist,onecanexpecttofindhighsocialcapitalcommunities,wherelowlevelsofsystemicriskarefoundinperiodsoffinancialcrises.Highsocialcapitalleadstoreductionsinleverage,whichleadstoreductionsinshort-termdebtstructures,lowerborrowingcosts,andlowerequitycosts.Highsocialcapitalisthusawin-winforallstakeholdersinthecommunityandshouldbecultivatedasamatterofnationalpolicy.Inordertoeaserisingtensions(notablyintodaysbondmarket),nations,statesandlocalcommunitiesmayfindittobehelpfulpolicytobegintopromotesocialcapitalwithintheirdistrictssoastostemtherisingriskassociatedwithover-leveragedbanks.Itisnevertoolatetostartandiscertainlyworththeattempt.SocialCapitalasContextTheideaofsocialcapitalhavingimportanceisalsoevidentinthestudyofMiqueletal.(2015)intherealmofbehavioraleconomics:InthearticlebyMiqueletal.,theresearchersexploretherelationshipbetweenculture,politics,andfinanceinChina.Inparticular,theynotetherolethatcultureplaysasadeterminingfactortheelectionprocess.OneoftherepresentativesofcultureinChinaisthevillagetemple,andwhattheresearchersfoundwasthatvillageswithtemplesexperiencedmuchlargerincreasesinpublicgoodsaftertheintroductionofelections(Miqueletal.,2015,p.1).Oneofthemostimportantfindingsofthisstudyistheconfirmationthatthenormsofoneculturethatgovernonenationseconomyarenotgoingtobethesameinanothercountrythathasacompletelydifferentculture.Inotherwords,cultureandformalinstitutionsintersecttoestablishthepre-conditionsthatwilldictatetheoutcomesforthosesameinstitutions.Miqueletal.(2015)establishedthatcultureplaysthedominantroleinestablishingthepre-conditionsfortheformalinstitutionsandtheoutcomestheyachieve.SetintheruralcountrysideofChina,thestudylookedatthechangeinthepost-Maoeconomyoftheruralvillagefollowingthedecisiontomakevillagecommitteeselectedbodiesratherthanappointedones.Thisbroughtaboutanairofaccountabilitytothevillagelifeandthecultureofthevillagethusplayedaroleintheprocessbasedontheconceptofsocialcapitalwithinthevillage.TheresearcherscitedGuisoetal.(2011),whodefinedsocialcapitalasciviccapitali.e.,thosepersistentandsharedbeliefsandvaluesthathelpagroupovercomethefreeriderprobleminthepursuitofsociallyvaluableactivities(Miqueletal.,2015,p.1).Thisdefinitionhelpstoshowwhatismeantbytheintersectionofcultureandformalinstitutions.Civiccapitalistheexpressionofsocialcapitalwithinthevillage.Theresearcherssuggestedthatvillageswithhighersocialcapitalwouldbenefitlessfromhavingelectedvillagecommittees(asthememberswouldalreadybecivicallyengaged)thanwouldvillagesthathadlowsocialcapital(asthecommitteeswouldfosteraspiritofaccountability).However,thisfliesinthefaceoftheindingsofTocqueville,whoreportedthatformalinstitutionsthrivemostinregionswheresocialcapitalisingreatabundance.Thepointhereisthatculturefosterscareandbothpoliticalandeconomicresponsibility.Thegoalofa1976reforminChinawastogivevillagersthepowertochooselocalleadersandvoteoutofofficethosewhoperformedbadly.Thehopewasthatthiswouldencouragelocalsupportforgreaterspendingonlocalpublicgoods.Qianetal.examinedwhetherlocalciviccultureisapre-conditionforthesuccessoflocallyelectedgovernmentbyexaminingthetemplesintheseareas.TemplesinChinaarelocallybuiltandlocallymaintainedwithvoluntarycontributions.Thepresenceofalocaltempleinavillagethusisanobjectivemeasureofcivicculture:itreflectstheextenttowhichthecitizensofthevillagearecivicallyengagedinmaintainingthetempleandinkeepingupwiththeupkeepandworkthroughcontributionsanddonationsofmoneyandtime.Cultureisanimportantdeterminantoftheeffectivenessofformaldemocraticinstitutions,suchaselections,andvillageswithtemplesexperiencedmuchlargerincreasesinpublicgoodsaftertheintroductionofelections.Thus,themoneywasraisedthroughdirectcivicengagementandtherolethatcultureplayedininfluencingthevillagerstomakevoluntarycontributions.Miqueletal.(2015)explaineditthisway:Villageresidentsareexpectedtomakedonations[ofmoneyandtime]tohelpfundactivities...[Villagetemples]providestronginstitutionsenforcingeachmembersresponsibilitytocontributetothecollective(p.8).Itisthroughthisdevotiontothetemplethatthecivicengagementofthecommunitycanbeseenandtheextenttowhichthetempleissupportedfinanciallyshowstheextenttowhichitisviewedashavingculturalsignificanceandvaluewithinthevillagecommunity.AsMiqueletal.(2015)showed,theconstructionofatempleisanindicationthatvillagershavetheabilitytocreateandsustainvoluntaryorganizations.Thelatterdependsonpre-existingnormsofreciprocity(p.7).Thisreciprocityisbasedontheideathatthevillagetempleisanall-inclusiveplace:nooneisexcludedfromthetemplebasedonreligiousbelief.Duringperiodsoffestivities,thetempleisacommunity-wideplaceofcentrality.Moneyiscollectedbythevillagetemplecommittee,whichseeksdonationsfromvillagerstoassistintheorganizationofparadesandperformances,filmshowingsandothereventsthatmighttakeplaceatthetemple.ThevillagetempleisessentiallylikeaciviccenterintheU.S.Itisusedbyoneandallandopentooneandall.Itisaplaceofcollectiveuseandutility.Thevillagetemplealsoservesasareinforcementofcivicandsocialcapitalbybringingpeopletogetherinonesetting.Manyofthetemplesassessedinthestudyhadbeenreconstructed,whilevillagegovernmentsfinancepublicgoodsbyimposingadhoctaxes(e.g.,fees,levies)(Miqueletal.,2015,p.11).Thefinancingofpublicgoods,however,isdeterminedcollectively:Tosuccessfullyprovidepublicgoods,acommunityneedstoovercometwodifficulties.First,itneedstofindawaytoaggregatethepreferencesofmemberstoestablishwhichpublicgoodswouldcontributethemosttosocialwelfare.Second,itneedstoovercomethefree-riderproblem(Miqueletal.,2015,p.12-13).Byintroducingelectionsi.e.,democracyintothevillagesinthepost-Maoera,theimpactofsocialcapitalcouldbefeltmorestrongly.Culture,wheretrustplaysanimportantpartintheformationofsocialcapital,wouldplayapartindeterminingelections,asthevillagerswouldtrustthateachelectedpersonwoulddohisdutybythevillage.Theexpectationofpayingforpublicgoodsisthusreinforcedbysocialcapitalandthebeliefthateveryonewilldohispartinsustainingthepublicgoodsthataredeemedimportanttothelifeofthevillage.AsToquevillenoted,theformalinstitutionisacomplementtohighsocialcapitalculturesandviceversa.ThisisessentiallywhatMiqueletal.(2015)foundintheirstudyofbehavioraleconomicsregardingtheevidenceinChina.TrustwasessentialtotheraisingofmoneyforpublicgoodsinChina,asthestudyofthevillagesandthevillagetemplesshows.Withouttrustandappreciationforhighsocialcapital,therewasnocultureinthevillagetosustainthetemple.Thetemplewasareflectionofthevaluethatthevillagesplacedintheircommunityfunctionstheparades,thefestivals,theshows,theeventsalloftheseweredeemedimportantandashavinghighsocialvalue.Theyhadhighsocialvaluebecauseofthecultureofthevillagepassedonfromgenerationtogenerationtheimportanceoftheirworth.Byactivelycomingtogetherincommunityorganizations,villagerswereabletodiscussthevalueandimportanceofthepublicgoodstheywouldbefunding.Thisprovidedopportunitiesforthemtoaffirmtheirsharedvalues.Thepresenceofatempleinavillageisindependentofthevillagesreligiosity,asMiqueletal.(2015)found.Thetemplewaslinkedtotheconceptofinclusivityandsocialcapitaltheimportanceoftrustbeingavaluedcharacteristicofthecommunity.SignificantContributiontoBehavioralEconomicThesignificantcontributionthatthearticlebyMiqueletal.(2015)madetobehavioraleconomicsisthatitconfirmsthesuppositionofprevioustheoristsaswellasTocqueville,whoarguedthatpublicfunctionsandculturewerecomplementarytooneanother.Acommunitywithouthighsocialandcivilcapitalisonethatwillbedepletedincultureandwillhavealowsenseofvalueforpublicgoodsandfunctions.Thelatterwilllikelybenon-existentinacommunityoftheformer.Inavillage,however,thatdoeshaveahighdegreeofsocialandciviccapital,theculturewillinformthecommunityandleadtothepreservationofandexpenditureonpublicgoodsandfunctionsthatgotosupportandmaintainthatculture.Thisshowsthatbehavioraleconomicswillbedeterminedbythecultureofthecommunity.Thestudysupportsthefindingsofpriorresearchandillustratedthatthisconceptismostlikelyuniversalinquality,asotherresearchhasestablishedtheideaintheWest.ThisstudyestablishedthattheideaisalsofoundintheEast.Thus,therolethatcultureplaysintheestablishmentofbehavioraleconomicscanbeseenasuniversalincharacter.SuggestionsandCritiquesThestudybyMigueletal.(2015)ishelpfulinshowinghowcultureplaysaroleintheestablishmentanddefinitionofbehavioraleconomicsfromtheperspectiveoftheChinesevillage.However,thestudyislimitedbecauseitonlyexaminestheChinesevillageanddoesnotexamineothercommunitieswheretraditionalcustomsandculturemaybelesseasilydefined.Intheglobalizedworld,theincreasingtendencyofsocietytobefragmentedandfractured,culturallyspeaking,hasbecomeaglobalphenomenon.Whileculturalhomogenizationhasoccurredinonerespectandthusledtothelinkingofeconomiestheworldover,ontheotherhandtheproliferationoftribalizationhasledtotheoppositeeffecttheproductionofnumeroussubcultureswithinthehomogenizedculturesothatitisimpossibletodelineatehowcultureispassedonfromplacetoplaceandwhatimpactculturenowmighthaveoneconomicbehavioroverall.Intheglobalizedworld,therefore,theconceptofcultureitselfhasbecomedevaluatedonanationalandinternationallevel.Culturedenotessomethingofthepast,somethingoftheOldWorldthathasbeenabandonedsincetheonsetofmodernpoliticsandemphasisonnewdoctrinesofhowsocietyshouldbeintegrated.InthevillagesofChina,aspectsoftheOldWorldarestillpreserved,whichisvastlydifferentfromthesituationinmodernChinesecitiesandothermoremodernregionselsewhere.Thus,itisimportanttodeterminewhatismeantbycultureandwhataspectsplayapartinculture.Theresearchersemphasizedaspectsofthestudybydiscussingculturefromthestandpointofhowsocialcapitalandciviccapitalplayapartbutthisispossibleinthevillagebecausetherearenocompetingsubculturesthatcanfragmentthecommunity.Inamoremoderncommunity,therewillbemanysubculturesthatworktofracturethecohesionofthewhole,whichmakesitmuchmoredifficulttostudytheoveralleffectofcultureonbehavioraleconomics.Atthelocallevel,however,theelectionwillsolvetheproblemofaccountability,withpreconditions,butthereareinstitutionsthatdohavepreconditions,likethetemple,andcansuccessfullycreatecollectiveaction.Thegoalwillnotbeachievedifthepreconditionsarenotmet.Temples(socialcapital)mightbetheprecondition:villagerscreatetrustandsharedexperiencesthatincreasethepublicgoodexpenditureinthevillage.Theculturewillinformthecommunityandleadtothepreservationofandexpenditureonpublicgoodsandfunctionsthatgotosupportandmaintainthatculture.ThatiswhatcanbeobservedatthelocallevelinChina.SocialCapitalandSocialChangeHickman(2010)showedthatsocialchangedoesnotspontaneouslymanifestitselfasaprotestlikethatseenduringthe1960sor1970s.Instead,theauthorshowedthatsocialchangebeginsorganically,usuallyatagrassrootslevel,andgrowsasmoreandmorepeoplefindcommonalitywiththeviewsofthemovement.Whentheideashavespreadtoalargepopulationfromasmallpopulation,socialchangeisdemandedandeffected,sometimesthroughthesortofproteststhatoneypicallyassociateswithsocialchange.Theauthorpursuedthispurposebydefiningsocialchange,thepurposeofsocialchange,thelanguageofsocialchange,conceptsinsocialchange(particularlytheperiodsofsocialchangei.e.,thefirstperiodbeingtheclassicalperiodinwhichmovementsareirrational,thesecondperiodinwhichrationalactionwithinstructuralconstraintsisdemonstrated,andthethirdperiodinwhichnewsocialmovementsarise).Typesofimportantsocialchangeconceptsincludeleadershipwithoutformalauthority,transactionalleadership,charismaticleadershipandsoon.Theauthorinvestigatedsocialmovementstructure,resourcemobilization,politicalopportunitystructure,andthedevelopmentofstrategiccapacity.ThekeyquestionthatHickman(2010)wasaddressingiswhatitmeanstoengageinsocialchangeandhowtheengagementisdemonstrated.Theauthoraimedtoanswerthisquestionbylookingattheoriesofsocialchangeovertime.Thekeyquestioninhismindwasmostlikelythis:HowcanIdiscusstheissueofsocialchangeinacomprehensiveandinformativemannerthataddressesthemostimportantissueswithoutglossingoverimportantsubstantialdetails?ThemostimportantinformationHickman(2010)broughtistheideathatsocialchangeinitiativescallforthedevelopmentofsocialcapitaltosucceed(Hickman,2010,p.208).Inotherwords,socialchangecannotsucceedwithoutthepropermovementanduseofpeopleinonesnetwork.Thatnetworkwillgenerallystartoutsmallandthengrowasimportantpeoplefromothercommunitiessignonandcommittospreadingandpromotingthemessage(Woolcock,2001).Theideaofusingsocialcapitaleffectivelyisreallyattheheartofsocialchange.Howthisimpactstheinternationalbankingindustryshouldbeobvious:justasOccupyWallStreetthreatenedtobringgreateraccountabilitytothefinancialsector,theriskofsocialchangedestabilizingmodernfinanceandeconomicsisaveryrealrisk.Themaininferences/conclusionsinthischapterarethatsocialchangeisgenerallyachievedthroughacomplexinteractionoffactorsandvariables,suchasaripeningpoliticalenvironmentinwhichsocialchangecanserveasaleverforpoliticalactionsomewhatlikethemovementforaneweconomicorderishappeningtodayamongfar-leftpoliticiansrespondingtoafar-leftmovementforsocialchange.Therealsohastobeanenvironmentofnon-constitutedleadershipinorderforchangetohappen,asthisallowsformultiplepeopleonmultiplefrontstoleadinatrulycollectiveeffortthatdoesnotdependuponasingleleaderordecision-makertocallalltheshots.Instead,thecollectivemovesorganically.Thekeyconceptstounderstandaretheconceptsofpoliticalopportunitystructure,strategiccapacity,andnon-constitutedtactics.Bytheseconcepts,Hickman(2010)meantthatpoliticalopportunitystructureistheconditionsinmainstreaminstitutionalpoliticsorpoliciesthateitherenhanceorinhibitprospectsforsocialmovementparticipantstotakeaction(p.212).Strategiccapacityisafunctionofthemotivationofactorsorleaders,accesstosalientknowledge,andthequalityofheuristicorimaginativeprocessesactorsemployintheirdeliberations(Hickman,2010,p.212).Itgivessupporttothebasicengineofsocialchangeinthatitrevealstheextenttowhichchangeispossible.Itlinksupwithandconnectstotheconceptofopportunitystructure.Non-constitutedtacticsarewaysofdrawingthemostattentiontosocialissuesthroughaprocessofsignalizingtheactivityofapprising[constituted]leadersofcircumstancesthatappearmeaningfulenoughtomeritdiagnosisandpolicyresponse(Hickman,2010,p.207).Ofthethree,thenon-constitutedtacticsconceptisperhapsmostimportantbecauseitshowstheimportanceofthemassmediainspreadingtheideasofsocialchange.Socialmediaisparticularlyimportantintodaysdigitalageasitcanallowinformationtospreadquicklytothegreatestnumberofpeopleontheplanetwhoareinterested.Littleetal.(2014)explainedthisphenomenonbyreferringtotheEgyptiandemonstrationsagainstPresidentMubarakin2011thateruptedacrossnationalboundariesandwerepossiblyfueledbyvideosspreadthroughsocialmedia.Anotherexampleofspreadingsocialactionviasocialmediaistheflashmobsthatbecamepopular(Littleetal.,2014).Byunderstandingtheseideas,onecanbetterunderstandwhatsocialchangeisandhowitworks.ThemainassumptionunderlyingHickmans(2010)thinkingisthatallsocialchangehappensalongthesamegenerallines:thereisagrassrootsvisionthatisorganicallymanifestedandspurredonbyindividualswhoshareadesiretogetthemessageoutandspreaditfarandwide(Hickman,2010).Massmediacanhelpandsoonthemessagehascaughtonamonggroupsalloverthenation.Thesegroupsthennetworkandconnectinbiggerwaysandproceedtotakeadvantageofpoliticalopportunitiestoeffectchange.Thereisthusaninteractionbetweencultureandcommerce(Miqueletal.,2015).Theimplicationsarethatsocialchangeisalmostmorelikeasciencethananartandthatchangecanbeimplementedsimplybytakingitstep-by-step,startingatthegrassrootslevel,developingavision,promotingit,gettingpeopletoidentifywithit,getbehindit,networkingit,andspreadingthevisionsothatitbecomesamissiontogetthevisionimplemented(Hickman,2010;Littleetal.,2014).Theideaisthatsocialchangeforanythingcanbeaccomplishedsimplybyfollowingthisblueprintforchange.Thatmeanssocialchangeisalljustamatteroforganizationandpromotion(Hickman,2010).Ifonefailstotakethislineofreasoningseriously,theimplicationsarethatpeoplewillneverunderstandhoweasyitistodevelopsocialchangeandcreateasocialmovement(Hickman,2010;Stephanetal.,2016).Ortheywillneverunderstandhowtheformulaforsocialchangecanbeexploitedbythosewhoseektomanipulatethenationintoadoptingandacceptingasocialchangethatisnottrulyorganicorwantedbythemajorityofpeople(Hickman,2010).TheformulaforsocialchangeasputforwardbyHickman(2010)caneasilybeusedbyanygroupthatseekstofomentchange.ThemainpointofHickman(2010)isthatsocialchangeoccursandhasoccurredinthepastinawaythatcanbepatterned,analyzed,interpreted,andunderstoodintermsofthematicstructuring.Thereisapatterntohowsocialchangehappens.Socialchangealsohappensatcharacteristicpace,shouldchangecometoosuddenlyitwouldbeextremelyupsettingtothepublic(delaSablonnire,2019).TheperspectivepresentedbyHickman(2010)isthatsocialchangehappensbecauseofveryrealfactorsandvariablesbeingtakenadvantageofatatimewhenitisfeasibleforthemtoexist.Themorethatthesevariablesarepresent,themorelikelysocialchangeistohappen.Hickman(2010)alsoshowedhowpublicvaluecreationandsocialresponsibilityareatthefoundationofsocialchange,andhowleadershipandpoliticalinterestplayapartinstrengtheningsocialchange.Gaitheretal.(2018)exploredsocialresponsibilityofcorporationsinthelightoftheirabilitytobringaboutsocialchangeinanethicalmanner.Gaitheretal.suggestedthatorganizationsthatprioritizesocialvaluesinsteadofchasingprofitswillbetterachievesocialchange.Hickman(2010)describedtheimportanceofnetworkingandalsodiscussedtheimportanceofthelanguageofsocialchange,andhowestablishedinterpretationscanbeablockdependingonhowthemediapresentstheavailableinformation.Hickman(2010)showedthatpeoplestartaskingmorequestionsandgetinvolvedingroupsthatseemtohavetheanswers.Marvel,mystery,andmagnificencewillalsoplayapartinsocialchange:thenetworkinganduseofsocialcapitalallowsforindividualstoconnectinamarvelouswayyetitretainssomedegreeofmysteryasthepeopledonotreallyknoworneedtoknowoneanother.Whatbindsthemistheirappreciationforthevision,thechangethatisbeingpromotedandthegoodthatcancomefromit(Gaitheretal.,2018;Hickman,2010).Thisisthemagnificenceaspectoftheprocessthatcomesintoplay:therehastobeasenseofmagnificenceamongthepeopleandabeliefintheincredible,becausesocialchangeissounusualinmanywaysandsounexpectedbecauseitseemstocomeoutofnowherethoughitisslowlybuildingandbuildinglikeavolcanothatisabouttoerupt(Hickman,2010).Therelatedimplications,benefits,impact,relevance,andreturnsoninvestmentarethatsocialchangedoesnotnecessarilyhavetobesomethingthatmostpeopleareconvincedoforareconvincingisneeded(Hickman,2010).Instead,socialchangecanoccurbecausetheopportunityistherefortherightpeopleattherighttimetotakeitandmakesomethingnewhappen,andthiscanservetoimpacttherelationshipbetweencultureandeconomics(Miqueletal.,2015).Theremustbealignmentamonganumberoffactorssothatthereismomentumforthesocialchange,thereisaccesstopowerthatcanactuallymakethechangehappen,andthemovementisreal(Hickman,2010).Thiswillinturncreateanewenvironmentinwhichthediscourseofcultureandeconomicsissituated(Miqueletal.,2015).AComparisonofOutcomesItisalsoimportanttounderstandhowgeopoliticalriskintersectswithpoliticalandeconomicfallout.ForeignpolicyunderPresidentGeorgeH.BushandunderPresidentTrumpdiffeedtosomedegreeabouttheroletheU.S.playedinshapingtheMiddleEastandengagingininterventionsthereaswellasrelationswithRussiaandinterventionsinCentralAmerica(Blackwill,2019;Knott,2019).UnderBush,foreignpolicywasmainlyimpactedbyapolicyofbriefbuteffectiveinterventionism.BushfocusedonmaintainingU.S.interestsabroadwhiletheeconomyathomewentnowhereandasaresulthewasnotelectedtoasecondterm(Clarkeetal.,1994).UnderTrump,foreignpolicyhasmainlybeenimpactedbytheeventsof9/11,whicharestillongoingtodayunderthebanneroftheWaronTerrorism.BushsforeignpolicyincludedtheGulfWar,theU.S.invasionofPanama,thefalloftheSovietUnionandthewindingdownofthearmsracebetweenRussiaandtheU.S.thathadcharacterizedtheColdWar(D\'Haeseleer,2019).ThatpolicyledtothedraftingandsigningoftheSTARTIandIItreaties,whichhelpedtocreateanenvironmentinwhichtheColdWarcouldbeputtoarestandbothRussiaandtheU.S.couldfaceanewerainwhichmutuallyassureddestructionwasnomore.BushalsointervenedintheMiddleEastduringtheGulfWarwhenheusedthestoriesofIraqisoldierstakingKuwaitibabiesoutofincubatorsandthrowingthemtothegroundtojustifyafull-scaleinvasiontorepelIraqiforcesoutofKuwait(Kellner,2007).BushsforeignpolicyinPanamawassomethingofanextensionoftheIran-Contraaffairthathadgoneonduringtheprecedingadministration(D\'Haeseleer,2019).TheU.S.soughttooverthrowNoriega,whomtheU.S.hadproppeduptillthatpoint.Theinvasionwasnotpopular,however,andmayhavecontributedtoBushsfailuretosecureasecondtermin1992.BushworkedwithRussiatolimitthedevelopmentofarmsandtocurtailthearmsracewiththeSoviets.TheSovietUnionfellduringBushstermandtheresultwasanenvironmentinwhichtheColdWarnolongerseemednecessary(Cho,&Kumon,2019).Thus,BushsforeignpolicytowardsRussiawasviewedaspeaceful,whichcontrastswithwhatithasbeenundertheTrumpAdministration,whichhaslaidheavyeconomysanctionsonRussia,revokeditsmissiletreatywithRussia,andsanctionedvariousothernations,suchasIranandVenezuela(Glasser,2019).WhereBushfailedwasonmaintainingtheeconomyathome.Thus,hissuccessorinterpretedtheneedcorrectly,thusdemonstratingasenseofrationalchoice,andauthorizedtheoffshoringoflaborandthedeconstructionofbuildingbyturninghisattentiontofinancials.Yet,withthebreakdowncomingandlikelyquicklytheneedtowaitmaybethebestapproachtotake.ForeignpolicyunderTrumpisessentiallyanextensionofthepolicythathasbeeninplacesince9/11,underbothBushIIandObama(Glasser,2019).WhileTrumphasnotpushedformoreinterventionsinSyria,hehasescalatedtensionswithIranbycancelingthenucleartreatyputinplacebyObama.TrumphasalsothreatenedactionagainstVenezuelabutsofarhasnotsoughttodirectlyoverthrowMaduro.TrumphasalsotriedtocreateatreatywithNorthKoreaandhasevenvisitedNorthKorea,whichissomethingnootherpresidenthasdone.Atthesametime,TrumphassoughtatradewarwithChina,whichhascreatedtensionsbetweenthatcountryandtheU.S(Hass,&Denmark,2020).Trumpsforeignpolicyhasthusbeenamixtureofpeacefulapproachesanddiplomacyandharshrhetoricandeconomicsanctions(Glasser,2019).TrumplaunchedmissilesatSyriainresponsetoaccusationsofchemicalweaponsbeingusedbyAssad,butbeyondthatTrumphasnotescalatedthewarsintheMiddleEast(Black,2018;Hassan,2017).ThesocialenvironmentunderBushwasoneinwhichAmericawashappyenoughwiththeReaganyearsthatitelectedhisvicepresidenttotheWhiteHouse(Kellner,2007;Walton,1995).Themoodwasstillconservativeandnotyetentrenchedinpoliticalcorrectness(Crabb&Mulcahy,1995).However,peoplewerebecomingdisillusionedwiththepoliciesofBushandhisfailuretoaddressdomesticissues.Economically,the1980shadbeengoodforAmericaandtheReaganyearshadboomedforWallStreet(Stone&Kuznick,2012).BusinesswasgoodbutslumpingunderBushasthehangoversetinandthecycleended.Politically,BushrepresentedthesameestablishmentthathadbasicallybeenvyingforpowersinceFord(Stone&Kuznick,2012).Bushandtheneoconservativesastheycametobecalledwouldcontinuetoinfluencepoliticsfromthatpointforward(Stone&Kuznick,2012).UnderTrump,thenationhasbeensociallydivided,withmanywhoopposeTrumpviewinghissupportersasracistsandxenophobes,whileTrumpsupportersviewhisopponentsasliarsandascorrupt(Roberts,2018).Trumpcametopoweronawaveofanti-establishmentarianismandcampaignedasanoutsiderwhowoulddraintheswampofDCofitslong-termpoliticiansandimposeanewruleandorderinthecountryscapital(Gorski,2019;Roberts,2018).Economically,underTrumpthestockmarkethashitall-timehighs,whichheroutinelytakescreditfor,thoughmuchofthathastodowiththecentralbankswillingnesstokeeprateslowandpotentiallyengageinmorequantitativeeasing(Dudley,2019).Trumpenactednewtaxlegislationthatdecreasedthetaxburdenplacedonbusinesses,asopposedtoBushraisingtaxesevenafterpromisingnotto.Trumpslegislationhasallowedcorporationstobringhomemoneyparkedoffshoreanduseittobuybacktheirowncorporateshares.TrumpstradewarwithChinaalsothreatenstohurtbusinessesinAmerica(Dudley,2019).Politically,thecountryisverydividedwithTrump.Bushspolicywasnotveryeffectiveoverall,asthetreatiessignedwithRussiawereeasy,sincethecountrywasfallingapart(Stone&Kuznick,2012).TheinterventioninPanamadidnotwinBushanysupporters.TheGulfWarwasviewedaspartofanulteriormotivebyBushtosendamessagetoHusseintonotchallengetheWest.Bushsforeignpolicywastoughinsomeareas,butitwasmainlyareflectionofBushsdesiretotieuplooseendsaboutIran-ContraandtakecreditforendingtheColdWar(Stone&Kuznick,2012).Trumpspolicyseffectivenessstillremainstobeseen,butthesignsindicatethatifTrumpdoesnotstartWWIIIbyattackingIran,hecouldengageinsomefurtherdiplomacywiththestate,createanewtreatywithIran,solvetensionswithRussia,andendthetradewarwithChina(Buchanan,2019).Trumpappearstobouncebetweenmakingpeaceandmakingwar,soitisunclearwhatthesituationisfromonedaytoanother(Buchanan,2019).Hissupportersclearlystillregardhimhighlyandviewhisapproachtoforeignpolicyasfavorable(Roberts,2018).ForeignpolicyunderBushandunderTrumpdiffersinthatTrumpinvadedtheMiddleEastandPanama,whileTrumphassoughttoendAmericanwarsabroad[eventhoughhehasindicatedthatheisreadytogotowarifacountrywantstofightwithhim](Stone&Kuznick,2012;Buchanan,2019).TrumphasbeenchargedwithcolludingwithRussiathoughhehasbeensanctioningRussiafromdayone.HeisinatradewarwithChinaaswell.WhileBushspolicymadehimaone-termpresident,Trumpstillhasahighapprovalratingandcouldverywellseeasecondterm(Buchanan,2012).Thiswilllikelyhaveimpactonmarketsbasedontherelationshipbetweenculture,includingpoliticalculture,andeconomics(Miqueletal.,2015).ChinaTobegintounderstandwhygeopoliticsissucharelevantissueintodaysfinancial/bankingindustry,onemusthaveasenseoftherolethatChinaisincreasinglyplayingontheworldstage(Shambaugh,2013).NobetterrepresentationofthatroleexiststhantheOneBelt,OneRoadInitiative,whichhasemergedinthe21stcenturyasoneofthemosteconomicorder-changingprojectsinhumanhistorythatisifChinaiscapableofpullingitoff(Cai,2018).AsCai(2018)observed,ChinasinfluenceingeopoliticsandglobaleconomicscouldupendthehegemonythatistheU.S.NotonlyistheOneBelt,OneRoadInitiativeathreattoglobalU.S.interests,theAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBankposesasimilarthreatinthesensethatitcouldultimatelyrivaltheWorldBankandtheInternationalMonetaryFund,entitiesestablishedwithintheframeworkoftheBrettonWoodssystemduringtheaftermathofWorldWarTwo,andwhosegovernancehasbeenhistoricallycontrolledbyAtlanticistpowerseversince,(Alonso-Trabanco,2019,p.126).ThefactthatChinahastheworlds2ndlargesteconomy,aftertheU.S.,andthattheRussia-ChinaalliancecouldleadtoamultipolarworldinwhichtheUSDiscompletelybypassed,hasgeopoliticalreverberationsfortheU.S.,particularlywithrespecttoforeignpolicy.IfChinaiswillingtochallengetheeconomicorderthatemergedpost-WorldWarII,itisonlynaturalthatsomeformofvolatilitywillcascadethroughmarketsinreaction.Fordecades,ChinaandtheU.S.haveheldasymbioticrelationship(Roach,2009).ChinaisanimportantmarketfortheU.S.andtheU.S.isanimportantmarketforChina.ThetradewarbetweentheU.S.andChinaismorethanjustabouttariffs.ItispartofageopoliticalstrategybytheU.S.toopposetheexpansionofChina,whichispromotingtheBelt/RoadInitiativeamongotherprojectsdevelopedtointroduceamultipolarworld(CouncilonForeignRelations,2018).TheOneBeltOneRoadprojectaimstolinkChinatotheMiddleEastandEuropesothatChinesetradecanbefacilitated(Balaawi,2017).Chinahasalsointroducedthepetro-yuan,whichallowstraderstobuyoilinyuansandexchangethemforgold(Cho&Kumon,2019).ThisismeanttogearoundthepetrodollarandcircumventAmericaspowertoeconomicallysanctioncountries,asitiscurrentlydoingwithnationslikeIranandRussia(Cho&Kumon,2019).TheU.S.wantstomaintainaunipolarworldorderinwhichitisthedominantplayerintheworld(Smith,2019).NowthatRussiaandChinahavejoinedeconomicforcesandaretradingenergyintheirownrespectivecurrenciestooneanother,andChinaisbuildingitsNewSilkRoad,theU.S.wantstoputastoptoChinasambitionsandpreventthemultipolarworldorderthatRussiaandChinawanttosee,asitwouldallowthemtogetoutfromundertheheeloftheU.S(Smith,2019;Tracyetal.,2017).TheU.S.alsoaccusesChinaofstealingbillionsofdollarsworthofintellectualpropertyperyearfromtheU.S.approximately$600billionaccordingtoPresidentTrump(Hass&Denmark,2020;JapanTimes,2018),andthetradewaralsoaimstoaddressthatastheU.S.wantsChinatoputsomeformofoversightintoplacethatwouldpreventIP-theft(Boxwell,2018).NamelytheU.S.wantsAmericancompaniestobeabletoworkinChinawithouthavingtoformJVswithChinesecompanies(Volodzko,2018).Thus,thetradewarisonlypartiallyabouttrade.ItismoreheavilyaboutthegeopoliticalorderthathasbeeninplacesincetheendofWW2andparticularlysincethe1970swhenNixonclosedthewindowonthegoldstandardandinstitutedthepetrodollarsystemwithSaudiArabiabygettingtheSaudistoselloilinUSDinexchangeformilitaryprotectionfromtheU.S(Krishna,2020).NowthatChinaisofferingitsownincentivestoothercountries,theriskontheU.S.sideisthatcountrieswillfeellessinclinedtoneedtoholdUSD,whichmeansthepowerofeconomicallysanctioningcountries(astheU.S.likestodo)willbelessened.Moreover,ChinaandRussiashowedadesiretomaintainsomelevelofpeaceandstabilityintheMiddleEast(asthisregioniscrucialtotheBelt/RoadInitiative),whiletheU.S.isengagedinperpetualwarinAfghanistan,SyriaandIraqandisthreateningawarwithIran(Glasser,2019).IftheUnitedStateshasnoeconomicleverageoverothercountries,thatmeansitislesspowerfulthanitwasformerlyandthatmeanstheunipolarworldorderthathasbeeninplaceformorethanhalfacenturywillgivewaytothemultipolarworldorder.Americawillnolongerhavehegemony(Krishna,2020).Forthesereasons,theUnitedStateshasenteredatradewar,knowingthatitwillhurtChinaeconomically.AnythingtostopChinasmomentumisseenasawinasfarastheU.S.isconcerned(Cavanna,2019).BreakinguptheeconomicunionbetweenChinaandRussiaandChinaandtherestoftheworld(suchasVenezuela,wheretheU.S.isalsoattemptingacoupinordertoforceoutMaduroandinstallitsownpuppetleaderinGuaido(Aljzeera.(2020),sinceMadurohasgoodrelationswithbothRussiaandChinaandGuaidowouldshiftthecountrybacktowardsthesideoftheU.S.)isthegoal.Thetradewarwilllikelyleadtoahotwar,whichisreallywhereallthisisgoinganyway.Ifitdoescometothat,itwillmeanagreatdealofdestructionand,justaneworderemergedafterthedestructionofWW2,aneworderwillemergefromWW3.WhethertheU.S.willbevictoriousinthatwarremainstobeseen.Fornow,thewarisbasicallyplayingoutasaColdWar2.0andasatradewarbutbothcreatetensionandthattension,unlessresolvedthroughpeacefulnegotiation(whichseemshighlyunlikelyatthispoint),willberesolvedthroughhotwar.Why?ThegeopoliticalworldorderthattheU.S.wantsisbeingchallengedbyChina(andRussiaandIran),andtheU.S.cannotaffordtoloseitsplaceasthesoledominantplayer(Hasan,2020).Ithastoomuchdebt,toomuchtolose,andtoomanyinterestsabroad.ItalsohasaspecialrelationshipwithIsrael,whoalsowantstospreaditsdominanceintheMiddleEastbygettingtheU.S.todestroyIran(Yom,2020).ChinaandRussiawillnotstandforthatandthetradewarisjustonepartofthisoverallgeopoliticalstrategy.AnotherexamplegeopoliticalriskistherelationshipbetweentheEast,theMiddleEastandtheWest.AstheEastparticularlyRussiaandChinaseektocreateamultipolarworld,thispreventscertainchallengestotheexistingordertoday.ThekeytounderstandingUS-Chinarelations,however,and,forexample,relationsbetweenJapanandtheUAEistheOneBeltOneRoadInitiative(OBOR).OBORisthenewtradeplanthatChinaandvariouspartnershaveenvisionedforthenewmultipolarworldofthe21stcenturyandbeyond.ItisaviewoftheworldthattheU.S.hasnotparticularlytakento,primarilybecausesincetheendofWW2,theU.S.hasbeenmainlypushingforaunipolarworldorder,whichitcouldcontrolthroughtheflowofmoneyandservices,withthedollaractingastheworldsreservecurrency.Today,alliancesbetweenChinaandRussia,Chinasnewgold-backedpetro-yuan,andtheOBORInitiative,areallreasonstobelievethattheunipolarfootholdoftheU.S.willendbeforelong(Cho&Kumon,2019).Othersignsofitsendareinview:thethawingofrelationsbetweenJapanandChina,countriesthathavetraditionallywarredwithoneanotherandviewedoneanotherunfavorably;therolethatJapanmayplayinOBOR;relationsbetweenJapanandUAE,whichappearstoallintentsandpurposestobealliedwithRussia(whoisamajorpartnerintradewithChina);andtherolethattheU.S.isplayingintryingprovokeChinaintheSouthChinaSeaandthroughatradewarthatneithercountryreallyappearstowant.U.S.-Chinarelationsareatthenexusofthenewworldorderthatseemstobedrawingevercloser.Japan,beingtheworldsthirdbiggesteconomy(afterChinaandtheU.S.)andtheUAE,beingamajorplayerintheMiddleEastandapotentialkeypartnerinOBOR,willofcoursebeaffectedbytheoutcomeofU.S.-Chinarelations.HowRelationsbetweenGreatCountriesAffectOtherCountriesWithAmericarepresentingtheWestandRussiaandChinarepresentingtheEast,theworldcanessentiallybesaidtobedividedbetweenEastandWestevenstilltodayItwaslessthan80yearsagothattheentireworldwasatwar(Knutsen,2020).TheU.S.wasalliedwithRussiaagainstthebulkofEuropei.e.,GermanyandItaly.JapanwasatwarwithAmerica(O\'Reilly,&Dugard,2016).TheU.S.andRussiaemergedvictoriouslybutrelationsquicklycooledbetweenthemastheColdWarbrokeoutandmistrustbetweenthetwodominantworldpowersledtothearmsraceandproxywarsincountriesaroundtheworld(Goodman,2016).TheU.S.andRussianeverrecoveredfromtheColdWarintermsofhavinggoodrelations.PresidentTrumpcampaignedforpresidentin2016ontheideaofbecomingfriendswithRussiaonceagain(Stent,2020).OnceelectedTrumpwasaccusedofbeingPutinspuppet(Schweller,2018),andheimmediatelytookadefensiveposturetowardsRussia,deliveringsanctionsandthreatstoRussiaanditspartnersthroughtheworldsuchasIran,Syria,VenezuelaandChina.Guidedbyneo-conservativeideologuesinthelikesofSec.ofStateMikePompeo,NationalSecurityAdvisorJohnBolton,andspecialemissaryElliottAbrams,whoplayedasignificantroleintheIran-ContrascandalunderReaganinthe1980s,TrumpsAdministrationisfilledwithforeignpolicyhawkswhowouldratherseetheunipolarworldperpetuatedadinfinitumthantoseetheRussia-Chinamultipolarworldcomeintoexistence(Buchanan,2019;Gaman-Golutvina,2018).Yetthatmultipolarworlddoesappeartobeinchingevernearer,mainlybecausesomanycountriesaroundtheworldareseeingtheeasewithwhichtheU.S.canlevelsanctionsagainstanynationthatdarestodefythedictatesoftheU.S.Suchsanctionscancrippleacountryanddestroyitseconomy(Dorsey,2019).Fewnationsareeverytrulyalliesforlong,andsowhenbetteralternativescometheirway,nationsarewillingtotalktoseewhattheycandotobettertheirownsituation.Forexample,countriesareinterestedinpartneringwithRussiaandChinainOBOR,March2020saw138countriesthatsignedamemorandumofunderstandingwithChina(InternationalInstituteforGreenFinance,2020).Itisinthismannerthatrelationsbetweengreatnationscanaffectothercountries:whengreatnationsgetalongandallowoneanothertoprosper,everynationbenefit(VanderPuttenetal.,2016).AfterdecadesofmistrustbetweentheU.S.andRussia,itnowlooksasthoughRussiaisnolongerwillingtowaitfortheU.S.tobuyintothemultipolarworldviewsoRussiaispairingwithChinaandothercountriestobringthatworldviewtorealityinspiteofwhattheU.S.wants,whichofcourseisthecontinuationofitsunipolarposition.VanderPuttenetal.assertedthatunderPutin,RussiasmoveoutofSyriaandworkingintandemwithTrumpmaybeacalculatedmovetogainmoretrustintheWestsolelytobenefithispositionasRussianleader.AmericaandChinaRelationsAmericanandChinaseemtohaveasymbioticrelationshiptoday.However,thisrelationshipcanbeinterpretedinmanyways.SinceChinawasadmittedintotheWorldTradeOrganizationin2001,theU.S.hasexportedmillionsofmanufacturingjobstoChinaastheU.S.openeditselfuptoreceivingChineseexportsinplaceofdomesticallyproducedgoods(Bartash,2018).TheU.S.inotherwordsbecameaclientofChineseproducers.Inonesense,thisisasymbioticrelationshipbecausetheU.S.getstomaintainatradedeficit,whichputstheU.S.dollarinhighdemand,whileChinagetstogrowintoamega-producerandanewworldpower(Wong&Koty,2020).Inanothersense,criticsoftherelationshipsaythatCinaisunderminingAmericanmanufacturingandthatthetradedeficitiscreatinganeconomicimbalancethatishurtfultotheU.S.(Hass,&Denmark,2020).Moreover,Chinaholds$21.21trillionofU.S.debt,whichmeansChinaessentiallycontrolstheU.S.market(Wong&Koty,2020).TheU.S.isinthedebtorseatacrossChinaascreditor,shouldChinaeverdecidethattheU.S.isactingunfairly,itcanseriouslyhurttheAmericaneconomy.ShouldChinabeoff-loadingtheU.S.dollarsitmaycauseadeclineintheU.S.economyandincreasedinterestrates(Seth,2020).However,suchamovewouldinturncausepricehikesofChineseproducewhichwillleadtoadownturnintheirmarketanditisnotlikelythattheChinesewouldwantthistohappen(Seth,2020).Foritspart,Americacontrolsthewaterwaysaroundtheway:itsnavyisthestrongest,soifChinaweretoattempttoundermineAmerica,theU.S.couldlaunchahotwaragainstChinaandattempttobringthenowpowerfulnationintosubmission.Allison(2017)assertedthatbycontinuingonthecurrenttradewarpaths,theU.S.andChinamaysteerintoahotwarwhichwillimpactontherestoftheworld.TheneedtopreventagainstaU.S.attackisagoingconcernintheEast,whichiswhyRussiahasdevelopedmissileshieldtechnologythatrendersU.S.missilesuselessandwhyJapanhasexpressedanxietyabouthostileneighbors(Wyn,2018).Thesemissiledefenseshieldsareinhighdemandamongvariousnations,too.RussiahasdeliveredthemtoSyriaandtootherallies.Whatthisshowsisthatthegreatpowersarewaryofoneanotherandthosewithforesightwillfindwaystoprotectthemselvesfromactsofaggression.Toprotectoneseconomicinterests,warisoftenaroadwell-traveled(Stone&Kuznick,2012).JapanandtheUnitedArabEmiratesSinceWW2,JapanhasessentiallybeenavassaloftheU.S.(McCormack,2007).Thus,toseeJapanbecomingfriendlywiththeUAEorevenwithChinaisfortheU.S.somethingtobeconcernedabout.TheUAEhasbeencriticizedbytheU.S.forsupportingterrorismintheMiddleEast(Sly,2018).TheUAEhasalsobeencourtingRussia,whichisnotviewedfavorablybytheU.S.JapanisanimportantclientoftheU.S.becauseitsbondsrepresentagoodcarrytradeandtheJapanesecentralbankisaferventpractitioneroftheunconventionalmonetarypolicyofbuyingeverything,alsoknownasquantitativeeasing[QE](Charoenwongetal.,2019).TheU.S.attemptedQEforthreeroundsfrom2008to2012andtheresulthasbeenatremendousbullrunintheAmericanmarkets,ascompanieshavetakentoleveragingforvariousexpansionorsharebuybackactivitieswhilethelendingratesarelow(Belkeetal.,2016).TheUAEisJapanstoptradingpartnerintheMiddleEast.In2018,thetwostatesagreedtoexpandeconomic,politicalanddefensecooperation.TokyoandAbuDhabialsosignedaninvestmentprotectionagreement(Kyodo,2018,para.4).JapanandtheUAEthushaveanimportantrelationshipintermsoftrade,whichisgenerallythebasisforpartnershipstodayaroundtheworld.Thejointstatementthatthetwonationsleadersreleasedin2018stressedtheimportanceoffurtherenhancingtrade,investments,andbusinesssuchasrenewableenergy,sustainablewaterdesalinationartificialintelligence,healthcareandmedicalequipmentwhichindicatesthatthepartnershipwillbeimportantforyearstocome(Kyodo,2018).Thestatementreinforcedthisideabystressingthetwonationscommitmenttodiversifyjointbusinessventuresinthenon-energysectorandstressedtheneedtoboostdefensecooperationandasKyodo(2018)noted,theUAEisJapansmaintradingpartnerintheMiddleEast,accountingforaboutathirdofTokyostradeintheregion.ItisalsoJapanssecond-largestsupplierofcrudeoil,accountingforalmostaquarterofitsneeds.Morethanhalfthetradevolumebetweenthemlastyear$28billionwasenergy-related(para.12).Thisisanimportantpointtoconsiderbecauseenergycouldsoonbecomeamajorissuefortheworldsbiggesteconomies,especiallyifwarbreaksoutbetweentheU.S.andIranandIranclosesthatStraitofHormuz.HowtheUS-ChinaRelationshipImpactsJapanandUAETheU.S.isnotthrilledwiththeideaofamultipolarworldortheOBORi.e.,theBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI).TheU.S.viewsChinasriseasproblematicforitsownhegemonyintheworld.WiththeUAEworkingcloselywithChinatoextendtheBeltprojectintotheMiddleEast,theU.S.iswatchingjustasclosely.AsXinhua(2019)reported,theCrownPrinceofAbuDhabi,SheikhMohamedbinZayedAlNahyan,onMondaymetwithChinesePresidentXiJinping\'sspecialrepresentativeYangJiechihereanddiscussedmeanstofurtherbilateralcooperationandtheBeltandRoadInitiative(para.8).Anti-terrorismisanimportanttopicinthisissueaswell,primarilybecauseofthedevastationthattheU.S.haswreakedintheMiddleEastsince9/11.ManypartsoftheMiddleEasthavebeendestabilizedsincethenandfortheBRItowork,securityandanti-terrorismeffortsneedtobeinplace.ByperpetuatingthewarsintheMiddleEast,theU.S.canunderminetheseeffortsandworktoensurethattheBRIdoesnotgetthrough.TheBRIrepresentsChinesedominanceinthe21stcentury,andtheneo-conservativeU.S.foreignpolicyhawkscannotabidethatorallowittohappen.ThisrealizationistheultimatereasonfortensionsbetweenChinaandtheU.S.,asindicatedbyChatzkyandMcBride(2019)attheCouncilonForeignRelations.ThetensionsintheU.S.-Chinarelationshipcouldindicateadecouplingbetweenthetwointermsoftheirinterdependence,asWyn(2018)noted.Thisisbeingsignaledbythetradenegotiations:OnMarch8[Trump]backedwordswithaction,announcingimporttariffsof25percentonsteeland10percentforaluminum,whileexemptingCanada,Mexicoandpossiblyotherallies.OnApril1,Chinarespondedbyhikingtariffsbyupto25percenton128U.S.products,includingcertainfruitsandnuts.Mr.Trumpretortedbyproposing25percenttariffsonaround1,300industrialtechnology,transportandmedicalproductswortharound$50billion(Jones,2018,para.2).Eachoftheseescalationsshowsthatneithercountryisinterestedinanythingthatcouldpotentiallyunderminetheotherspower.Thus,unlessastalemateputsanendtotheprocess,theoutcomeofthistradewarcouldbeverybigonJapanandtheUAEandhereiswhy:Wyn(2018)writingforRANDCorporationgavethebestanalysisofhowthecurrentU.S.-ChinasituationcouldimpactJapan.Theanalysisisworthquotinginfull,asitexplainsthefullextenttowhichJapanmaybecaughtinthecrosshairsoftheU.S.-ChinatradewarandthuscouldhavenegativeimplicationsforJapan-UAErelations.However,abriefsummaryofthesituationcansuffice.Basically,Wyn(2018)notedthatWashingtonandBeijingseempreparedtobegindecouplingfromoneanothereconomically,aconclusionthatplacesTokyoinadifficultpositionforatleastfourreasons(para.3).Thefourreasonscanbeputthisway:JapanseconomicgrowthisdependentuponthecomplexsupplychainsthathelpstructureandareinturnshapedbyU.S.-Chinatradeinterdependence(Wyn,2018,para.4).Ifthereisnomoreinterdependence,JapanssituationintheEastanditsrelationshipwiththeUAEcouldbeimpactedbyarecessionintradevolume.Whenthe2008recessionhit,Japanwashitthehardestasexportsdroppedandtheeconomyshrank.IftradebetweenChinaandtheU.S.ceases,theglobalsupplychainwillgointoatailspin.IftheU.S.followsthroughonitsplantoremainthesolehegemonicpowerintheworld,JapansrelationshipwiththeUAEcouldbeseenasproblematic:theTrumpadministration\'sefforttoreduceAmerica\'sentanglementwithChina\'seconomyispartofafar-reachingefforttoreclaimthecompetitiveadvantagesitbelievestheUnitedStateshassquanderedbyjoiningmultilateraltradepactsandactingthroughlongstandingBrettonWoodsinstitutionssuchastheWorldTradeOrganization(Wyn,2018,para.5).Indeed,inarecentspeech,TrumpstatedthatJapanwasrippingusoffrightalongsideChina.Thus,ifJapanisnextputinthecrosshairsofU.S.ire,itcouldmeanthattheUAE-Japanrelationshipwillbequestionednext.TrumphasthreatenedtariffsonJapanscars,sotheU.S.mayalsotargetJapanstradepartnerintheMiddleEastifitthinksitcanachievemoreofitshegemonicaimsandbringalliesofChinaintheBRIintosubmission(Wyn,2018).IftheU.S.adoptsaprotectionistpolicygoingforwardandbreaksofftradewithChina,JapanmaybeobligedtobolstereconomiccooperationwithChina,itsprincipalrivalintheAsia-Pacificregion(Wyn,2018,para.6).Indeed,thisappearstoalreadybeahighpossibilityasTokyoisworkingmoreproactivelywithBeijingtoconcludenegotiationsovertheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership,a16-countryarrangementthatexcludestheUnitedStatesandwouldincorporatesome30percentofGWP(Wyn,2018,para.6).Inotherwords,thefalloutoftheU.S.-ChinarelationshipcrumblingcouldbeastrongerrelationshipbetweenChinaandJapan.IftheU.S.beginstocompetemoreopenlyinmanufacturing,theoutcomecouldbeaheightenedstateofinsecurityandpossiblewar.BecauseChinaandtheU.S.havebeensointerdependentsinceChinajoinedtheWTOin2001,therehasbeenamutualneedforself-restraintamongthenationsleaders.However,withTrumpandXinotshowinganysignsofcomingtotermsintheirngotiations,theoutcomecouldbewar.ThiswouldputJapaninaprecarioussituationasthesealanescouldpossiblybeblockedandtheJapaneseeconomycouldsuffervastly.Thesealanesaretheprimarylanesusedfortradeeventoday,socontroloftheseaisverymeaningfulandwhoevercontrolsthelaneswhethertheU.S.orChinawillhavetobeviewedasanationtoworkwithasfarasJapanisconcerned(Wyn,2018).OneofthebigissuesbetweenJapanandChina,however,remainstheChinaSea.JapanwantsafreeandopenIndo-PacificOceanthatisnotcontrolledbyChina.TheU.S.alsowantsthis.Chinadoesnot.JapansDefenseMinisterhaswarned,therefore,thatChinaisunilaterallyescalatingitsmilitaryactivitiesintheseaandaviationspacesaroundourcountry.Thishasbecomeasignificantconcernforourcountry\'sdefense(Wyn,2018,para.7).ThusWyn(2018)concludedthatif,asseemsplausible,weareintheearlystagesofalongunwindingbetweentheU.S.andChineseeconomies,Japanmayhavetodevisenewstrategiesnotonlyforsustainingitsgrowth,butalsoforinsulatingitselffromtheimpactofdeterioratingrelationsbetweenWashingtonandBeijing(para.8).Inotherwords,JapanmayhavetorelymoreheavilyupontheUAEor,dependingonthefalloutofwhogainspowerandcontrolovertheIndo-Pacific,JapanmayhavetopivotmoretowardsChinaorRussiaforeconomictradeandsupport.IftheU.S.isreallydeterminedtopreserveitshegemony,thecurrentrisksofholdingfirminitstradenegotiationswithChinaseemtosuggestthatitcouldendupmakingmattersworseforitselfbypushingmanynationsoftheworldrightintotheopenarmsofChinaandRussia.Americanobstinacymayhavemetitsmatchinthenewmultipolarworldthatisgainingsteam.ThatleavestheUAEtofigureoutwhereitwillgo.Currently,theU.S.isreticentaboutdoingmorebusinesswiththeUAE,andChinahasshownsignsofbeingreadyandwillingtostepintomeettheUAEsarmsneeds(McLaughlin,2019).TheAmericanCongressrecentlyattemptedtopreventAmericansupportoftheSaudi-UAEwaragainstYemenbutTrumpblockedthebillbyrefusingtosignit.ThatmaybeasignalthattheU.S.willcontinuetodobusinesswiththeUAE.However,theuncertaintymaybeenoughfortheUAEtodoubledownonitscommitmenttoChina,whichcouldthenimpacttheUAE-Japanrelationship.Thefactorsinvolvedinhowthingsplayoutfromherearenumerousandextraordinarilycomplex.Whicheverwayitplaysouttherewillundoubtedlyberamificationsfortheinternationalbankingcommunityconsideringtheglobalinterconnectednessofallthingstoday.SummaryThekeypointsofthischapterarethatrationalchoicetheoryisanappropriatetheoreticalframeworkforthisstudy.Itcanbestbeunderstoodinthelightoftheprinciplesofmissioncommandandtheideathatbanksoweadutytoclientsandcommunitiestoactrationally.Theproblem,asdemonstratedbyGoldmanSachs,isthatbankscanactrationallyintheirownself-interestwithoutconsideringtheirclientsinterest,whichcreatesanethicaldilemmathatcouldoffsetwhateverpositivesarisefromrationalaction.Theusefulnessofthinkingaboutarationalchoiceframeworkaccordingtotheprinciplesofmissioncommandisthatitgivesaclearindicationofwhatthepurposeshouldbe:banksaretheretoservetheinterestsofclientsofstakeholders.GoldmanrepresentsahybridbetweenEgoismandrationality.Suchaculture,too,islikelynotuniquetoGoldman.This,therefore,couldbeconsideredafactorintheassessmentofbankingcommunitymembers.WherethingsstandtodayisthattheinternationalbankingindustryislikelytobeonastateofhighalertasPresidentTrumpfurthernegotiatesbothwiththeChinesePresidentandtheFederalReserveChairmaninordertokeepsystemsworkingandthepublicfrompanicking.However,withsocialchangedriversbecomingmoreandmoremanifestedaroundtheworldfromLondontoHongKongtothestreetsofPortland,Oregonitmaybesurmisedsocialandhumancapitalarevectorsthatneedtobeconsideredbytheindustryaswell.Forrationalchoicetobedetermined,asharedsenseofunderstandinghastooccur,yettheindicatorssuggestthattheissuesfromthe2007-2008havenotevenbeenfullyaddressedyet.Thereisstilltoomuchleverage,asDimon(2018)haspointedout.TheworldhasbarelyrecoveredfromthelastcrisisforanothertocomecouldspelldisasterinthesamewaytheDominicanRepublicwashitbytwoshatteringhurricaneswithinthespanoftwomonths.TheexpansionofChinaandRussiaintotheMiddleEastandelsewherethroughouttheworld,innosmallthankstothealliancebetweentwocountriesandthedirectionthattheywanttotakethenextgeneration.Theculturalissuesatplayinthisareamayneedtobeconsideredaswellinordertofullyunderstandwhetherbankersfeelconfidentorwhetherthatconfidenceisatoneofdespondencybasedonadawningawarenessthattherewillcomeatimewheneveryoneisrespectful.OBORcouldupsettheunipolarworld,theheadofwhichistheU.S.President.Forthatreason,Trumphasbecomeveryunnecessaryregardingthewaytheyarelookingatit.Areasofconvergenceoccurwheneverthevariousresearchersbegintoidentifythethemesthatcommonlyunitethem:thesethemesincludetheutilityofsocialandhumancapitalandhowimportantitisinthefinanceindustryasgoodwilliswhatkeepseverythingoperatingandwhenthatgoessotoodoestheconfidenceinthesystemthathasbeeninplaceforhundredsofyears.Areasofdivergenceincludethevariouswaysinwhichtheresearchersfocusonanichetopicandthenusethattopictoinformtheirwholeperspectiveandcharacter,whereastheviewingispainfullydull.Inthenextchapterthemethodologyofthestudywillbediscussed.Chapter3:ResearchMethodCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthischapter:Participantselectionisclearandappropriatetothestudy,ethicalprocessesaredescribed,roleoftheresearcherisdiscussed,anddatacollectionandanalysisisarticulatedandjustifiedinscholarlyliterature.PleaseseefeedbackthroughouttheChapter.Followingthecollapseofsub-primeintheU.S.andatidalwaveofleverageddefaultsacrosstheglobalbankingsectorwhichonlyfoundreliefthroughcentralbankingintervention,theworldappearedonthebrinkofdisaster(Haitsmaetal.,2016;Heller,2017).Tosomeextentithasrecovered,thoughsomecriticsofQuantitativeEasing(QE)havearguedthatcentralbankshavemerelykickedthecandowntheroadi.e.,theyhaveallowedabubbleeconomytoformthatwillbeevenworsefortheglobaleconomywhenitburststhanin2007-2008.Salhinetal.(2016)showedmanagerialconfidencehaveanimpactonreturnoninvestment(ROI).Moreexaminationwasneededonhowconfidenceamongmembersofthefinanceindustryaffectsinvestmentbetweensectors(Salhinetal.,2016).Pikulinaetal.(2017)foundoverconfidenceamongprofessionalinvestorscanleadtohighrisksituationsleadingtoadverseeffectsoninvestment.Overconfidenceislinkedwithfinancialcrisisasinvestmentsbecomesoover-leveragedthattheslightestdisruptionbringdisaster(Hoetal.,2016).Understandingtheconnectionbetweenconfidenceandinvestmentinbankingisneeded(Leeetal.,2019).Domiddlemanagersandregularemployeescouldimpactonindustriessustainability(Buyletal.,2019)?Itisnotknownwhateffectregularbankingemployeesattitudeshaveonindustrysustainability,furtherresearchisneeded(Buyletal.,2019).Lupton(2019)assertedwithrapiddebtgrowthworldwideitisunclearwhethertheindustrycansustainthisgrowthwithoutunduerisktaking.Midlevelbankingworkersarevitaltoabankssuccess(Buyletal.,2019).Theworldmayfaceanotherdisasterfollowingthecollapseofsub-primeintheUnitedStatescoupledwiththetidalwaveofleveragedloansdefaultingacrosstheglobalbankingsectorwherereliefwasfoundthroughcentralbankingintervention(Haitsmaetal.,2016;Heller,2017).Ithaspartiallyrecovered,thoughcriticsofQEarguedcentralbanksallowedabubbleeconomytoformthatwillbeevenworsefortheglobaleconomywhenitburststhan2007-2008.Thestudyproblemisoneofsustainabilityintheindustry.Lupton(2019),Dimon(2018)andBuyletal.(2019)questionedthesustainabilityoftodaysbankingindustry.Confidencemayplayapartindeterminingwhethertheindustryissustainable(Buyletal.,2019).However,itisunclearhowconfidencecanbedefinedemotionmetaphorsmaybeanindicationofthetypeofconfidencethatworkersinthebankingindustryhave(Ho&Cheng,2016).Confidenceisvitalsinceitdetermineshowmoneyisinvested,whatmarketswilldo,andwhereitisplaced(Heller,2017).Banksneedasenseoftheirconfidenceshouldanothereconomiccrisishit(Giles,2017).Theproblemthisstudyaimstoaddressistoanswerwhethertheinternationalbankingcommunityfeelsconfidentthatitcanweatheranotherglobaleconomiccrisis,andspecificallywhethergeopoliticalawarenessimpactsthatconfidencelevel.Thepurposeofthisquantitativedescriptivestudywastoassesstheconfidenceofmembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityregardingwhetherthesectorcansafelyhandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisislikethatseenin2007-2008andwhethergeopoliticalawarenessimpactsthatconfidencelevel.Therelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidencewasdetermindbyusingastructuredsurveytool.SurveyparticipantsrepresentedfourinternationalbanksHSBC,J.P.Morgan-Chase,DeutscheBankandBankofChina.ParticipantsremainedanonymousbyaccessingthesurveythroughSurveyMonkey.Geopoliticalawarenessisknowledgeofgeopoliticalcurrentevents.Geopoliticalrisksrepresentriskslinkedwithwars,terrorism,andtensionbetweenstates(Caldara&Iacoviello,2018).ThemodelformeasuringriskdevelopedbyCaldaraandIacoviellowasusedtomeasuregeopoliticaltensions.Inthesurvey,theparticipantswereaskediftheyseegeopoliticalriskintheworld.Theirresponseswerethenmeasuredagainstthemodelshowinghowmuchgeopoliticalriskispresent.ThescopeofthedatacollectionwaslimitedtobankerswithprofilesonLinkedIn.Consideringtheimpactthattheglobaleconomiccrisishadontheworldfrom2007-2008andtherolethatcentralbankinginterventionplayed(Heller,2017),itisimportanttoknowwhetherbanksarepreparedshouldasimilareventoccur.Partoftheproblemforinvestorstodayisthattheyareunsureofwhetherthefinancialindustryispreparedforanotheradverseevent(Giles,2017).Thisstudyevaluatedhowconfidentthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunitythatthesectorcouldsafelyhandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisis.Thischapterdescribesthesurveymethodologyusedinthisquantitativedescriptivestudy.Itdiscussesthepopulationandsample,materialandinstrumentation,operationaldefinitionofvariables,anddataanalysis.Italsodiscussestheassumptions,limitations,delimitationsandethicalconsiderationsforthisstudy.ResearchMethodologyandDesignCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthissection:Researchmethodanddesignareappropriatetoanswerresearchquestionsandjustifiedwithscholarlyliterature.Thisquantitativestudyusedthesurveymethodwithastructuredsurveytoolinordertoobtaindatafrom1000differentinternationalbankers.Nardi(2018)recommendedthestructuredsurveytoolforobtainingquantifiabledatafromalargepopulation.Astheaimofthestudyistoobtainaquantitativesenseofwhetherbankersintheinternationalcommunityfeeltheyarepreparedforablackswaneventlikethatofthe2007-2008globaleconomiccrisis.Thisisanappropriatemethodforansweringtheresearchquestionsastheprimarypurposeofthesequestionsistodeterminewhethertheinternationalbankingcommunityisconfidentabouttheprospectsofafuturerecession.Thesecondarypurposeofthesequestionsistodeterminewhetherconfidencelevelsandknowledgeofcertainfactorsregardingtheglobaleconomy/geopoliticalclimatearecorrelated.Alternativemethodsanddesignscouldhavebeentoconductaqualitativestudyusingtheinterviewmethod,oracasestudytoexamineonebank.Aqualitativestudyusingtheinterviewmethod,forexample,couldbeusedtoobtainadeeperunderstandingofhowasmallersampleofmembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityseegeopoliticalawarenessasafactorinthesectorsconfidenceregardingitsabilitytowithstandaneconomiccrisis.AsMalterudetal.,(2016)showed,thequalitativeinterviewmethodisbestusedforsmallsamplesinstudiesseekingadeeperunderstandingofaphenomenon.Amixedmethodsstudycouldalsobeused.ButMcKim(2017)showedthatthemixedmethodsapproachhasvalueforresearcherswhowanttotriangulatedataandprovidebothqualitativeandquantitativeanalysis.However,forthisstudy,suchanapproachwouldnotbeidealbecauseitaddstotheamountofdataneedingtobecollectedandwouldrequiremoresupportthatisnotcurrentlyavailableforthisdesign(McKim,2017).Becausethepurposeofthisstudyistoreflectthecurrentattitudesandfeelingsofbankerstoday,asurveymethodpresenteditselfasthemostviableasalargepopulationismoreconducivetoquantitativestudiesthantoqualitativeones.PopulationandSampleThepopulationconsistedofbankersintheinternationalcommunityandincludesworkersatvariouslevelsandfunctions:financialanalysts,personalfinancialadvisors,accountants,auditors,loanofficers,investmentplanners,andunderwriters.Eachofthesebankinggroupsofprofessionalshaverolesindeterminingriskversusrewardratiosandthereforestandtohavesomestakeinbeingabletoassessriskintheglobaleconomy.Thesampleaimedforis1000respondents.Therelevantcharacteristicsshouldincludethattheyarecurrentlyworkinginoneofthefourbiginternationalbanks:J.P.MorganChase,DeutscheBank,HSBC,orBankofChina.Apopulationsampleofthissizeandcharacteristicshouldbeappropriateinachievinggeneralization,consideringthatasTrevelyanandRobinson(2015)haveshowntheattitudes,feelingsandopinionsofapopulationarebestreflectedwhenthesamplesizeislargeandthecharacteristicsofthesamplerepresentthebodytheresearcheraimstoassess.TrevelyanandRobinson(2015)providedcriteriathatarereflectedinthiscase,whereanalyststounderwriterswillmakeupthesamplefromthefourbiggestbanksintheinternationalcommunity,andthusitisassumedthatthesebankerswillreflectthegeneralattitudesofthepopulation.Theaimofthisstudywastohaveacomprehensivesamplethatisreflectiveoftheactualpopulation.AsJ.P.MorganChase,BankofChinaandHSBCemployapproximatelyaquartermillionemployeeseachwhileDeutscheemploysapproximately100,000workers,thesampleofparticipantswereproportionatetothesizeofthebanksthemselvesintermsofemployees(BankofChinaAnnualReport,2019;DeutscheBank,2019;HSBC,2019;J.P.MorganChase,2019).Thissampleisappropriatebecausethestudyaimstogiveanaccuratereflectionoftheinternationalbankingcommunity.Thesampleparticipantswerechosenrandomlyfromthesebanks.Randomsamplingisrecommendedforensuringvalidity(Emerson,2015).Poweranalysisreferstothepowercurve,whichisimportantbecauseittellsatwhatpointatestbecomesbiasedaswellastheprobabilityofrejectingthenullhypothesis(Cohen,1988).Thecurveillustratedthepowerofthetestinamonotoniclinethatincreasesastheprobabilityoftherejectionofthenullhypothesisrisesandthenullhypothesisbecomesmoreandmorefalse.Theillustrationhelpstoshowwherethelevelofsignificanceis[ifthecurvedipsbelowthislevel,itindicatessomeformofbiasinthetest](Cohen,1988).Thep-valuereferstothelevelofsignificance.Forexample,if95%oftherespondentsindicatetheyarenotconfidantabouttheirbanksabilitytoweatheranotherstormlikethatof2008,itwouldindicatethatthereisastatisticallysignificantproblemwiththeconfidenceoftheinternationalbankingcommunity.Ifthep-valueisgreaterthanalpha(.05),however,thereisnostatisticalsignificance.Ifitislessthanalpha,thenthedifferenceisstatisticallysignificant.Alphaisthemarginoferrorthatispermittedinat-testanditisusuallyplacedat5%.Thisstudyaimstoachievestatisticalsignificance.Increasingsamplesizemakesthehypothesistestmoresensitive.Betaistheprobabilityofmakingatype2error:thelargerandmoresensitivethesample,thelesschancethereisofmakingatype2error.PoweranalysiswasconductedusingQuick-R:Thesignificanceleveldefaultsto0.05(Cohen,1988).Aprioripoweranalysiswasperformedtoestimatethesamplesizeneededbyequatingthemarginoferror(E)tothepointestimateforthepopulationmeanisthesamplemeanandthemarginoferror,whereZservesasthevaluetakenfromtheprobabilitiesofthestandardnormaldistributionforthedesiredconfidencelevel(hereZ=1.96for95%confidence).Additionally,?servesasthestandarddeviationoftheoutcomeofinterest.Theequationisthuspresentedtosolvefornasthedesiredsamplesize:CommentbyAuthor:Sedricwasthisaaprioripoweranalysis(performedtoestimatesamplesizeneeded?)oraposthocpoweranalysis(performedafterdatacollectiontodeterminethepowerofthetest)?Pleaseidentify:ifapriorithenincludeinformationontherealizedsamplesize--ifposthocthenalsoincludethisinformationintheDataValidityandReliabilitysectionofChapter4.becomesThus,theformulaprovidestheminimumsamplesizetomakesurethemarginoferroriswithintheconfidenceinterval.However,becausethestandarddeviationisunknown,theformulahadtobeadjusted.Pisintroducedastheunknownpopulationproportion.Theapproximatevalueofpisrequired,sotherangeforpisestablishedas0to1.Witharangeofp(1-p),thevalueofpthatmaximizesp(1-p)is0.5.Pat0.5thusservesasvalueforestimatingthelargestsamplesize:Theequationshowsthattoachievea95%confidenceinterval,385participantsareneededinthesample.Thisstudyusedasampleof641andthusreachedthetargetlevel.ParticipantswererecruitedviaemailbyharvestingcontactinformationfromLinkedIn,wherebankerprofilescanbesearched,andindividualbankersemailed.Thisisacommonpracticeinrecruitingamongbusinesseslookingtorecruitandhireemployeeswhohaveprofilesthatmatchthecriteriaforjobsthatbusinesseswanttofill.Therefore,itwasnotexpectedthatthismethodofobtainingcontactinformationpresentedanylegalorethicalchallenges.Theabilitytoidentifyandconnectwithindividualsinthismannerispreciselywhythesocialmediasitewasestablisheinthefirstplace.Theplatformwassearchedforbankersfromeachofthefourbiginternationalbanks,withapproximatelythreebankersfromJ.P.MorganChaseandBankofChinabeingemailedforeveryonebankerfromDeutscheandHSBCinordertopreservetheproportionalratio.MaterialsorInstrumentationCommentbyAuthor:Sedricpleaseappendthesurvey.Thanks,Sharon.Asurveyinstrument(AppendixC)hadtobeidentifiedthatappliedtotheIVandDVofthisstudy.Theresearcherwasunawareofonethatwouldapply,whichiswhyhesurmisedthatasurveyinstrumenthadtobedevelopedspecificallyforthisstudyasthereisnoexistingsurveythatsetsouttoobtaindataonthequestionsthisstudyasks.Thesurveywasfieldtestedwith5respondentsfromthesample.Theresponseswereanalyzedforanyunexplainablepatternsorpossibleconfusioncausedbythephrasingofthestatements.Fromtheresponses,itwasevidentthattheresearchquestionscouldbeansweredusingthedataobtained.Feedbackwasalsoobtainedfromthefieldtestsampletoseeiftherewereanyquestionsorconcernswhiletakingthesurveythatcouldbeusedtoimprovethesurvey.Nosuggestionswerereceivedfromthefieldtestparticipants.ThesurveyconsistedofarangeofquestionsregardingtheIVandtheDVofthestudy,definedbelow.Thesurveyusedthe5-pointLikertScalecreatedbyrephrasingtheresearchquestionsasstatementswithwhichtherespondentcanagreeordisagreeonascaleof1to5,1beingstronglydisagreeand5beingstronglyagree.OperationalDefinitionsofVariablesCommentbyAuthor:SedricPleaseincludetheadditionalvariablesof:TotestRQ1hypotheses(seefeedbackcommentintheResearchQuestionssectionofChapter1):IVisworkingornotworkinginabankindustry.DVisconfidencelevel(thisisincludedhere.)TotestRQ2hypothesesbothvariablesareincludedhere.TotestRQ3hypotheses:IVisalterationinmonetarypolicyandawarenessofrisingdebtlevels.Sedric,notsureifthisistwovariables(alterationinmonetarypolicyANDawarenessofrisingdebtlevels)oronevariable(perhapsawarenessofrisingdebtlevelsintheenvironment(orperhapsbecauseof)risingdebtlevels).DVisconfidencelevel(thisisincludedhere)ForRQ1,theIVisworkinginaWesternbankinginstitutionornotworkinginaWesternbankinginstitution;theparticipantsofthissurveyallworkinthebankindustry.TheDVisconfidencelevel,definedbelow.TotesttheRQ2hypotheses,thevariablesgeopoliticalawarenessandconfidenceareused,bothdefinedbelow.TotesttheRQ3hypotheses,theIVisawarenessofmonetarypolicyinanenvironmentofgloballyrisingdebtlevels,andtheDVisconfidence.AwarenessofMonetaryPolicyinanEnvironmentofGloballyRisingDebtLevels.TheconstructofthisvariableisnotdirectlymeasurablebutcanbedeterminedbyequatingtheconceptofmonetarypolicyawarenessinanenvironmentofgloballyrisingdebtlevelstothedegreetowhichanindividualpaysattentiontoFederalReservestatementsorpublicationsfrombankanalystsorbankCEOs(Dimon,2018).GeopoliticalAwareness.Theconstructofgeopoliticalawarenessisnotdirectlymeasurable,butitcanbemeasuredbyequatingtheconceptofgeopoliticalawarenesstoactualknowledgeofgeopoliticalevents.Whatneedstobemeasuredistheparticipantsknowledgeofgeopoliticalevents,suchasthestateofrelationsbetweenRussiaandChina,ChinaandtheU.S.,theU.S.andRussia,IranandtheU.S.,andsoon;aswellasconcomitantglobaleconomicevents,suchaswhattheJapanesebondmarketisdoing,whattheproposedItaliandeficitis,wheretheUSDistradingagainstabasketofcurrencies,whatthelatestChinesedatawas,andsoon.Itisnotnecessaryforthisinformationtobesummarizedforrespondents,eventhoughitisexpectedthatsomeofitwillbemoreknowntooldergenerationsthantoyoungergenerations;thepurposeofthesurveywastoassesthisawarenessandagewillbeoneofthefactorsusedtoanalyzetheresults.Ageshouldnotbeanexcuseforhavingnogeopoliticalawareness,particularlyinthissector.Geopoliticalawarenessisdefinedasknowledgeofgeopoliticalcurrenteventsandwhethertheyaredeemedsignificanttotheinternationalbankingsector.CaldaraandIacoviello(2018)definedgeopoliticalriskastheriskassociatedwithwars,terroristacts,andtensionsbetweenstatesthataffectthenormalandpeacefulcourseofinternationalrelations.Geopoliticalriskcapturesboththeriskthattheseeventsmaterialize,andthenewrisksassociatedwithanescalationofexistingevents(p.6).Significanceisdeterminedbywhetherparticipantsviewtheseeventsaspossiblyimpactfulontheinternationalbankingcommunity.GeopoliticalawarenessistheIndependentVariable(IV)ofthisstudyandwillbemeasuredusingtheLikertscaleinthesurvey,andthismodelwillbeusedforthisstudy(p.1).ThegeopoliticalriskindexforthisstudywillthereforebedeterminedbyusingtheCaldaraandIacoviello(2018)model,basedoncountingthenumberofoccurrencesinleadingEnglish-languagenewspapersofarticlesdiscussingthegeopoliticaleventsandrisks(p.7).AmonthlyindexstartingwasbecompiledCaldaraandIacoviello(2018)byrunningautomatedtext-searchesoftheelectronicarchivesofadozenoftheworldsleadingEnglishnewspapers.Thelevelofmeasurementforthisvariablewillbenominal,withrespondentshavingarankingofawareness,semi-awarenessornoawarenessasdeterminedbytheirresponsestosurveystatementsregardinggeopolitics.Confidence.Confidenceintheabilityoftheinternationalbankingcommunitytoweatheranotherglobaleconomiccrisisisdefinedasthebeliefthatthesectorcanhealthilyandeffectivelywithstandanymoreshockslikethatwitnessedfrom2007-2008.Thisvariablereferstothesubjectiveperspectiveoftheindividualbankersparticipatinginthesurveyandnottotheconfidenceofthebanksthemselves,whichcouldbebasedonanythingfromtheratioofnon-performingloanstototalloanstothebankssharepriceonpublicexchanges.Confidencewillbeself-reportedbytheparticipantsagainontheLikertscaleof1to5.ConfidenceistheDependentVariable(DV)ofthisstudy.Bothvariableswillbemeasuredusingafive-pointLikertscale.Responsesfromparticipantswillbegeneratedusingthesurveymethod.Thesurveywillbedistributedtothesampleviasocialmedia,withconveniencesamplingbeingtheprimarywaythesampleisdistributed.Thelevelofmeasurementofeachvariableisordinalandpotentialscoresforeachvariablewillrangefrom1to5(stronglydisagreetostronglyagree).ALikert-typescaleassumesthatthestrength/intensityofexperienceislinear,i.e.onacontinuumfromstronglyagreetostronglydisagreeandassumesthatattitudescanbemeasured.Ordinallevelvariablesareusedwhenitishelpfultoshowhowthereisevidenceofanorderormeaninginthewaytheparticipantsaregroupedamongthedataset.Thegroupingtendstobehierarchical,whichiswhytheLikertscaleiscommonlyusedinsurveys,asitallowsresponsesofparticipantstobegroupedinanorderorranking(Polit&Beck,2017).StudyProceduresThenumberofmembersofthesamplewhoreturnedthesurveywas641.1000emailsweresenttoarandomizedsampleofemployeesatJ.P.MorganChase,DeutscheBank,HSBC,andBankofChinaaskingthemtoparticipateinasurveyhostedonmyLinkedInpage.Atotalof641participantstookpartinthesurvey.CommentbyAuthor:NicereturnrateSedric!!64%isamazingthermusthavebeengreatinterestinyourresearchstudytopic.Table1DemographicsofRespondentsJobTitlePercentageofRespondentsApplicationAnalyst5%InvestmentBankingAnalyst15%ExecutiveDirector3%RiskAnalyst2%LoanProcessor22%FinancialAdvisor16%SalesSpecialist39%AsTable1shows,themajorityoftheparticipantsinthesurveywereinsales,whichisalowerlevelposition.Loanprocessorsmadeupthenexthighestlevelofparticipants,followedbyfinancialadvisors.Riskanalystsmadeuponly2%oftherespondentsandexecutivedirectorsonly3%.AsLewis,HardyandSnaith(2013)showed,nonresponsebiasinsurveyresearchcanresultinmisleadingorinaccuratefindingsandassessmentofnonresponsebiasisadvocatedtodetermineresponsesamplerepresentativeness.Waveanalysisisonemethodofassessingbias.Wavesconsistedofthreewavesthefirstmessagingtothoseinthesamplewithanexplanatoryletterandalinktothesurvey;twoweekslaterthesecondwavecommencingwithamessageforthosewhohadnotyetrespondedandthenthethirdwavecommencedwithanotherreminderandanotherlinktothesurvey.Itwasnotexpectedthattherewouldbeadiscernibledifferenceamongrespondentsofthethreewaves.Descriptivestatisticsareusedtosynthesizeanddescribedatabysupplyingparameterscommonlybasedonaveragesandpercentagesthatarecalculatedwithdatafromapopulation(Polit&Beck,2017,p.215).Atthenominallevel,variablesarecategorizedwithoutanyobviousmeaningintherelationship.Descriptiveanalysisofdataforthevariablesconsistedofthefollowing:Themeanisobtainedbytakingthesumofthedataanddividingbythenumberofinputs.Themeanisusefulindescribingthecentraltendencyofthedata.However,unusualoutlierscouldbenegativelyaffectingthemeanandthusmakingthedatasetunreliable.ThemeansfortheIVwasbasedontheLikertScleof1-5responses.TheStandardDeviationsandrangeofscoresforthisvariablewerefrom1to5.ThesamewasfortheDV.SPSSwasusedforconductingstatisticalanalysis.Thescoreswerenormallydistributed.DatawerecollectedbyfirstcollectingemailsfromthepopulationthatweresampledthroughLinkedIn.TheprocedureincludedlogintoLinkedIn,clickontheAdvancedlinkatthetopofthepagewhichgoestotheAdvancedPeopleSearchpage.Inthesearchbox,thejobtitlesforthefollowingpositionsweresearched:financialanalysts,personalfinancialadvisors,accountants,auditors,loanofficers,investmentplanners,andunderwriters.Thedefaultchoicewascurrenttoallowthesearchtolocateindividualscurrentlyinthatposition.Theindustryselectedwasbanking.Once1000emailswereharvestedfromLinkedIn,amassemailwassentreferringthepotentialparticipanttoanonlinesurveyusingSurveyMonkeypostedontheresearchersownLinkedInpage.AnInformedConsentformprecededthesurveystatingthatbytakingthesurveytheparticipantconsentstohisorherinformationbeingusedinthestudy.TheemailsintroducedmyselfanddescribedthenatureofthestudyIwasdoing.Beneaththeintroductionwasalinktothesurveythatcouldbetakenatmysocialmediaprofilepage.Thedatawerecollectedinthismanner.Datawerehandledbykeepingallcompletedsurveysinadigitallockerthatisencrypted.Onlytheresearcherhadaccesstothedigitallocker.AsLinkedInallowsforthistypeofsearchtotakeplaceandmessagesweresentindividuallytoeachoftheparticipantsandnottoanyoneLinkedIngroup,permissionforaccesswasnotrequired,asthesiteisdesignedtoallowforindividualstoconnectinthismanner.DataCollectionandAnalysisCommentbyAuthor:Sedric,thesectiondoesnotincludeinformationonwhattestwasusedtoanalysethedata.Considerdiscussionthetestsbyresearchquestionhypotheses.Theselectionprocesswasnonrandom.Convenienceandsnowballsamplingwereused.TheSPSSwasthetoolusedtoanalyzethedata.Theparametrictestisahypothesistestthatisusedtoobtaingeneralinformationthatcanthenbeusedtoexplainthemeanofthesample.Atypicalparametrictestisthet-test.Pearsonscorrelationtestisanothertypicalparametrictest.Essentially,wheneveranassumptionabouttheparametersofasamplepopulationisutilized,theparametrictestisthestatisticaltestthattheresearcherwillengage.ByobtainingdatafromtheLikertScalesurvey,bothtestswereapplicable(Boone&Boone,2012).ThisstudyanalyzedthedatausingANOVAandcorrelationtesting.AssumptionsUsingtheLikert-scaleofmeasurementpresentstheassumptionsthatthestrength/intensityofexperienceislinear,i.e.onacontinuumfromstronglydisagreetostronglyagreeandmakestheassumptionthatattitudescanbemeasured.Thiswastheprimarymethodofmeasuringconfidence.However,theothervariablesgeopoliticalawarenessandmonetarypolicyawarenessweremorecomplexandhadtobemeasuredwithmorenuance.TheLikertscalewasstillusedwithanoverallnegativetopositiveshift,butinsteadofstronglydisagree(1)andstronglyagree(5)beingthevalueranges,theresponsesranged,forexample,inthisway(forRQ2):CommentbyAuthor:Consideration:specifythevariables/constructsthatwillbemeasuredusingtheLikertscalebecausenotallofyourvariables/constructsaremeasuredinthisfashionforexampleyoucategorical(nominal)variables.1Notgeopoliticallyawareatall2Unsure,i.e.,hearsomethingsbutdontknowwhatitmeans3Neitherawarenorunaware,i.e.,canprocessinformationandtalkaboutitifthesubjectcomesupbutdonotthinkaboutitmuch4Somewhataware;IdomakedecisionseveryonceinawhilebasedonwhatIunderstand5Veryaware;allofmydecisionsarebasedonthisawarenessUsingtheself-reportingsurveymethodassumesthatindividualswillreporttheirthoughtsandfeelingshonestlyandwithoutfearofreprisal.However,thisassumptionhasbeenchallengedbynumerousresearcherswhohavearguedthatself-reporteddataisweakanddoesnotnecessarilyreflecttherealityofthesituationandcanleadtounderreporting(Livingston&Callanan,2015).LimitationsSelf-reporteddatahasbeenshowntobeoneofthemostcommonwaysofobtainingdata.Forexample,Autyetal.(2015)pointedoutthatself-reportsurveysareamongthemostwidelyusedmethodsofcollectingdataamongquantitativeresearchers(p.563).However,self-reporteddataisnotfoolproof,andotherresearchershavequestioneditsusageintermsofprovidingvalidresearchresults.Forexample,Gemmingetal.(2014)arguedthatrelianceonself-reporteddatacanleadtounderreporting.Themeasurestakentomitigatetheselimitationsaretomakethesampleasrandomizedaspossible.Thoughitwasconveniencesamplingtoadegree,becauseitwasusingLinkedInforobtainingparticipants.LinkedInisaplatformusedbymillionsofpeople,soitisstillaveryrandomwaytoobtaindata.DelimitationsDelimitationwasachievedbyfieldtestingthesurveyfirstandthendeterminingwhatinformationIwantedtoobtainandwhatinformationIdidnotseektoobtain.Thedelimitationsarethecomponentsoftheresearchthatwerenotincludedinthestudy.Thesurveyprovidedmoredatathanwasnecessarytoanswerthequestionsforthisresearch;however,itmainlyfocusedonthecorrelationbetweentheIVandtheDVandtheextentthatitwasmeasurable.Thetheoreticalframeworkusedherewasrationalchoicetheory,whichpositsthatindividualsororganizationsmakedecisionsbasedontheweighingofcostsandbenefits.Thekeyconceptsinthistheoryarethatinordertoeffectivelymakerationalchoice,onemustknowthecostsandthebenefitsastheyareandnotonlyastheyappearinonesmind.Ifoneisnotconfidentaboutthecostsandbenefits,onecannotproceedeffectivelyinthedecision-makingprocess.Theframeworkguidedtheresearchdecisions,includingthedevelopmentoftheresearchproblemstatement,purposestatement,andquestions,byframingtheunderlyingideaattheheartofthespecterthatistheover-leveragedindustrythroughtheconceptofweighingthecostsandbenefits.Dimon(2017)andLupton(2018)haveessentiallycalledforsuchanexaminationintheirownpubliccommentsandconcerns.EthicalAssurancesEthicalissuesincludeprotectingtheidentityofparticipantsandobtainingtheirinformedconsent.Consentwasassumedwhenthesurveywascompletedandreturned.Informationaboutthesurveywasprovidedatthetopofthesurveyfortheparticipanttoread.Identifyinginformationabouttheparticipant,suchasnameandthenameofthebanktheparticipantworksforwasnotrequestedorcollected.Thispreservedtheanonymityoftheparticipants.Aninternalreviewboardwasalsobeusedtooverseetheprocess.Thedataweresafeguardedandprotectedwithconfidentialityandprivacybeingobserved,asnoidentifyingnamesorinformationwereused;instead,eachparticipatingrespondentwasautomaticallyassignedanumber.Noparticipantsnamesoridentifyingfeatureswasreportedinthestudyanddatawerepreservedinadigitallyencryptedlockboxsothatthirdpartiesdonotobtainaccesstoit.SummaryThisquantitativestudyaimedtoassesstheconfidencelevelsoftheinternationalbankingcommunityinordertoseeifitiscapableoforpreparedtoweatheranothercrisislikethatseenin2007-2008.ThepopulationforthisstudyconsistedoftheinternationalbankingcommunityrepresentedbythebigfourbanksofJ.P.MorganChase,DeutscheBank,HSBC,andBankofChina.ThesurveymethodwasusedtoobtaindatafromtheparticipantsandthesamplewasobtainedbyconnectingwithpotentialparticipantsviaLinkedIn.Thevariablesstudiedweregeopoliticalawareness(theIV)andconfidence(theDV).Thedatawereanalyzedusingthet-testandPearsonscorrelationtest.ItwasassumedthattheseattitudescouldbemeasuredusingtheLikertScaleandthatself-reporteddatawouldnotdiminishthestudyscredibility.Toguardagainstthislimitation,thesamplewasasrandomizedaspossible.Chapter4:FindingsThepurposeofthisquantitativedescriptivestudywastoassesstheconfidenceofmembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityregardingwhetherthesectorcansafelyhandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisislikethatseenin2007-2008andwhethergeopoliticalawarenessimpactsthatconfidencelevel.Confidenceplaysasignificantroleinhowmoneyisinvested,whereitisplaced,andwhatmarketswilldo.Therefore,assessingtheconfidencelevelsofbankersatthefourmajorinternationalbanks(J.P.MorganChase,DeutscheBank,HSBC,andBankofChina)isessentialforunderstandingifthesectorcansafelyhandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisislikethatseenin2007-2008.Additionally,theassessmentofconfidencelevelscanevaluatethedegreeofimpactongeopoliticalawareness.Thischaptercomprisesfoursections:(a)validityandreliabilityofthedata,(b)results,(c)evaluationofthefindings,and(d)asummaryofresults.Thevalidityandreliabilityofthedatasectiondiscussestheoverallstudy;factorsimpactingtheinterpretationofthedatacollectionandanalysis.Theresultssectionprovidesanoverviewofthecategoricaldemographicdatacollectedandcompriseanillustrationoffactorsrelatedtothestudy.TheevaluationofthefindingsincludesaanalysisofLikertscaledata.Theresearchquestionsandhypothesisforthisstudywere:RQ1.IstheinternationalbankingcommunityintheWestmoreconfidentinitsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008thanthecommunityintheEast?H0.ThereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweenworkinginthebankingcommunityintheWest/Eastandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.ThereisasignificantrelationshipbetweenworkinginthebankingcommunityintheWest/Eastandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.RQ2.Doesgeopoliticalawarenesshaveanimpactontheconfidenceofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityregardingthesector\'sabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008?H0.Thereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.Thereisasignificantrelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.RQ3.Dochangesincentralbankmonetarypolicy(i.e.,goingfromquantitativeeasingtoquantitativetightening)andtheawarenessoftherisingdebtlevelsaroundtheworldaffecttheconfidencelevelsofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityonthesectorsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneseenfrom2007-2008?H0.Thereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweenawarenessofmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.ThereisasignificantrelationshipbetweenawarenessofmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisisValidityandReliabilityoftheDataDependabilityindicatesthatastudyisconsistentthroughout(Anney,2014).Confirmabilityreferstotheamountofconfidenceregardingthefindingsrepresentingtheparticipantsperspectiveratherthantheresearchers(Anney,2014).Reflexivityiswhentheresearchermaintainsaconstantstateofawarenessofhowhisownideasmightbeinfluencingthestudy.Areflexivejournalcanhelptobemindfulofthisawareness,ascantheaudittrail,whichactsasarecordofhowdatawascollected,analyzed,andinterpreted(Anney,2014).Dependabilityandconfirmabilitycanbeaddressedthroughdetailed,thickdescriptionsofthemes.Meaning,areflexivejournalwaskept,andaninquiryauditwascompletedbyathirdpartytoconfirmthattheresearchprocesseswereusedthroughoutthestudy(Marshall&Rossman,2014).Validityconcernstheaccuracyofameasure,andreliabilityconcernstheconsistencyofameasure.Thisreferstothestudysabilitytomeasuretheoutcomesthatitaimstomeasure(Dikko,2016).Avalidstudyisonethatcanassesswhatitintendstoassessandshowsthatthefindingsandconclusionsproceedfromtheinterpretationofthedatainalogicalway.Itwillexplainthevariablesincludedforanalysisanddiscusspotentialvariablesthatmaynothavebeenincluded.Inpresentingthefindings,itiscriticaltodiscusshowaccuratethecollectionofdataandanalysisreflecttherealityoftheinformationsought.Throughthecredibilitycomponent,triangulationofsourcesdidnotoccurusingavarietyofdatacollectionmethods,butratherthroughthesurveyingofavarietyofemployeesatfourdifferentinternationalbanks(J.P.MorganChase,DeutscheBank,HSBC,andBankofChina).Thismethodallowedmetoobtaindatafrommorethanonelocationwithintheinternationalfinanceindustry.Membercheckingistheprocessofcheckingwithparticipantsafterinterpretingresponsestomakesurethatwhathasbeeninterpretedaswhattheparticipantintendedtocommunicate(Marshall&Rossman,2014).Itwasalsousedtoanswerquestionsthataroseaftertheinitialroundofsurveydatawascollectedandanalyzed.Participantswereemailedormessagedthroughsocialmediawhentheresearcherhadaquestionandwantedtoconfirmwiththeparticipantswhetherhisinterpretationofthefindingsalignedwiththeiractualbeliefsandfeelings.Follow-upinterviewsorsurveyswithparticipantscouldperhapshelptoanswerthatquestion,andmembercheckingwasutilizedforthatpurpose.Emailsweresenttotheparticipantstogaugewhethertheyviewedtheroleofthecentralbankinsupportingmarketsashavingasignificantfactorintheirconfidenceintheindustryoverall.TransferabilityTransferabilityistheextenttowhichthefindingsaregeneralizabletoothersituations.Thisstudydidnotincludeamixed-methodsapproach,butratheronlymultipledatasources,andthusitdidnotofferatriangulationofsourcesbeyondthebankingmemberswhoparticipatedinthesurveyofthefourcentralbanks.Thislackoftriangulationplacesatleastoneconstraintonthevalidityofthedatainthesensethatitmeansthefindingsarenottestedforconsistencyacrossdifferentdatacollectioninstruments.Transferabilitywas,however,ensuredbyprovidingdetailed,thickdescriptionsofthewaydatawascollected,thecontextinwhichitwasobtained,demographicsoftheparticipants,andothercontentthatwouldhelptodeepentheunderstandingofthepopulationrepresentedbythefindings.(Marshall&Rossman,2014).DependabilityEnsuringconsistencythroughoutthestudy\'saudittrailshowsthattherearefactorsthatimpacttheinterpretationofthedatacollectionoranalysis.Theoverallstudyshowedthatthedatamettheassumptionsofthestatisticaltest.EvidenceofpsychometricsoundnessintermsofadequatevalidityandreliabilitywasobtainedthroughPearson\'srandinternalconsistency,facevalidity,testfornormality,anddiscriminantvalidity.Generalizabilityofthefindingsmaynotapplytoothersituationsoutsidetheinternationalbankingindustrybecauseoftheuniquesituationthatisaninternationalbankingandtheuniquerolethatvariablesplayinimpactingtheparticipants\'senseofconfidence,asthefindingsshow.InternalconsistencyreliabilitywasassessedusingCronbach\'salpha.Internalconsistencyreliabilitywassupported:Cronbach\'salphawas.80.Dataanalysisappropriateforthepurposeanddesignwouldbe:Internalconsistency,Constructvalidity,andItemhomogeneity.Thefollowingweretested:reliabilityanditemhomogeneityusingCronbach\'salpha,item-totalcorrelations,andinter-itemcorrelations;constructvalidityusingfactoranalysis.InternalconsistencyreliabilitywasassessedusingCronbach\'salpha,whichtellshowcloselyitemsinagrouparerelated.Internalconsistencyreliabilitywassupported:Cronbach\'salphawas.80,whichindicatesthattheitemshadarelativelyhighdegreeofinternalconsistency.Inthescientificcommunity,thereliabilitycoefficient>.70istypicallyviewedasacceptable.Testsfornormalitywereconductedonthedependentvariable.TheShapiro-Wilktestindicatedasignificantdeviationfromnormality(.99,p0.05.TheR-squaredislessthan3%,sonotagoodpredictorofwhereconfidencewillbe.Thecorrelationbetweenthevariableswasnotespeciallymeaningfulalthoughmanyrespondentsassociatedgeopoliticalawarenesswithconfidenceratherthanwithaweakeningofconfidence.ResearchQuestion3Dochangesincentralbankmonetarypolicy(i.e.,goingfromquantitativeeasingtoquantitativetightening)andtheawarenessoftherisingdebtlevelsaroundtheworldaffecttheconfidencelevelsofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityonthesectorsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneseenfrom2007-2008?H0.Thereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweenawarenessofmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.ThereisasignificantrelationshipbetweenawarenessofmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisisThedataindicatethatawarenessofcentralbankpolicyandrisingdebtlevelshasnosignificantimpactonbankemployeesconfidencelevels.Table4-4showstheeffectofawarenessofcentralbankmonetarypolicyandincreasingdebtlevelsonconfidencelevelsofbankers.Again,employeesofDeutscherepresenttheleastconfidentgroup,andJ.PMorganChaseemployeesdemonstratedthemostneutrality.TheHSBCandBankofChinaemployeesdemonstratedapositivecorrelationbetweenawarenessofthevariablesandconfidence,thoughneitherwasstatisticallysignificant.Onepossibleexplanationforthepositivecorrelationisthatbankersatthesefirmsagainviewedawarenessitselfinpositivetermsratherthaninnegativeterms.Theideathatawarenesscanenhancerelationshipsbetweenbankersandclientsisathemethatoccurredagainandagaininthesurveyresponses.Insteadofseeingrisingdebtandcentralbankinterventionsasforebodingeventsheraldingamajoreconomiccrisis,thesebankemployeessawawarenessassomethingthattheycouldusetohelpclientsmaketherightdecisionsforthemselves.Bybeingawareoftheseevents,catalysts,andsignalssalesspecialists,financialadvisors,loanprocessors,investmentbankinganalysts,andriskanalystscouldfeelmoreconfidentintheirownabilitytodotheirbankingduties.Theyrespondedthattheycouldhelpclientsfeelinormed,knowledgeable,helpful,andconfidentintheirowndecisionsabouthowtoinvest,whethertotakeoutaloanataspecificinterestrateorwhattypesoffinancialproductstobuy.However,thistypeofconfidencewasnotsharedbyallbankemployees.Three-fourthsofemployeesatJ.P.Morgan-Chasefeltthatawarenessofcentralbankmonetarypolicyandrisingdebtlevelsplayednopartinhowtheirconfidencewasformed.OnereasonforthelackofimpactamongJ.P.Morgan-ChaseemployeesmightbefoundinJ.P.Morgan-ChasesownorganizationalcultureandriskaversionstrategiesthatwerebeingimplementedundertheguidanceofJamieDimon.Dimonhimselfwascriticaloftheamountofrisingdebtandtherolethatthecentralbankwasplayingviamonetarypolicyinthetighteningofcredit.Deutscheemployeeswerebyfarthemostnegativelyimpactedbythisawareness,withnearlyoneintwoemployeesoftheGermanfirmfeelingthattheirconfidenceintheinternationalbankingindustrywasshakenbytherisingglobaldebtandthemonetarypolicyofcentralbanksaroundtheworld.ThequestionthatremainedwaswhetheremployeesofDeutschefeltshakeninconfidencebythisawarenessbecausetheybelievedtheirbanklackedinternalstrengthandthatallbankswereliketheirfirmorwhetheritwassomeotherreason.Apost-surveyquestionwasputtotheseemployeesusingmemberchecking,andtheemployeeswhoresponded(74total)answeredthattheysawlittlelong-termreasontobeconfidentinthesystemperiodasfreemarkets,especiallynowinlightoftheresponsetotheCOVID19crisis,werefastresemblingacommandeconomy.Oftheparticipantswhoreportedbeingshakenintheirconfidence,thelossofafreemarketwasthemostcitedconcernfollowedbyaconcernaboutacollapseinUSDandadefaultonsovereigndebtthatwouldtotallyupendthesystemandleadtoopenconflictandaglobalhotwaramongnations.Thiswasoneextremeoffeelingamongaminoritypopulationofbankemployees.Themorecommonfeelingamongmostemployeeswasthatmonetarypolicyandrisingdebthadeithernoeffectorelseapositiveeffectontheirconfidencelevels.Table4Table5TheEffectofCentralBankMonetaryPolicyandAwarenessofIncreasingDebtLevelsonConfidenceLevelsEffectDependentVariableNegativeEffectNoImpactPositiveImpactUnaware15%75%10%Unsure45%25%30%Neitherwhollyawarenorwhollyunaware25%10%65%Somewhataware5%35%60%Veryaware15%15%70%Mean22.5%36.25%41.25%Theredidnotappeartobeanystatisticallysignificantcorrelationbetweenthetwovariablesregardingconfidenceandawarenessofdebtlevelsrising/centralbankmonetarypolicy.Thep-valuewasmoresignificantthan0.05,andthus,thenullhypothesiswasrejected.Totesttheassumptionsoflinearity,PearsonsrandregressionanalysiswereconductedusingANOVA.ModelSummarybModelRRSquareAdjustedRSquareStd.ErroroftheEstimate1.141a.023-.0166.6831a.Predictors:(Constant),Awarenessofcentralbankingmonetarypolicyandincreasingdebtlevelsaroundtheworldb.DependentVariable:ConfidenceANOVAaModelSumofSquaresMeanSquareFSig.1Regression53.87528.535.642.539bResidual2062.86246.345Total2162.182a.DependentVariable:Confidenceb.Predictors:(Constant),AwarenessofcentralbankingmonetarypolicyandincreasingdebtlevelsaroundtheworldResidualsStatisticsaMinimumMaximumMeanStd.DeviationNPredictedValue4.2959.0997.5111.121641Residual-7.90731.598.0006.728641Std.PredictedValue-2.8671.416.0001.000641Std.Residual-1.1494.593.000.978641DependentVariable:ConfidenceThefindingsshowedthatthemodelwasnotstatisticallysignificant,asp>0.05.TheR-squaredislessthan3%,sonotagoodpredictor.Thecorrelationbetweenthevariableswasnotespeciallymeaningful.Thus,despitetheassociationsthatcouldbedrawn,statisticalsignificancewasnotfound.Interpretationsofthedatacouldnotbe,therefore,corroboratedorsupportedbyquantitativestatisticalanalysis.Intheend,thedatasuggeststhatmoreinquiryisrequired,eithertoexplorefurthervariablesthatmightbefactoredinaffectingconfidenceortounderstandbettertheviewpointsofemployeesofthesebanksandwhattheyperceivetobedirectlyinfluencingtheirconfidence.EvaluationoftheFindingsResearchQuestion1Istheinternationalbankingcommunityconfidentinitsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008?ThebankerssurveyedatJ.P.MorganChaseandBankofChinawerebyfarthemostoptimisticoftheparticipantssurveyed,whileDeutscheemployeeswereleastoptimisticintermsoftheirviewonthestrengthoftheindustry.Overall,theredidnotappeartobeanystatisticalsignificance,thoughsomeconsistencyamongpatternsofresponsesamongindividualparticipantsfromcertainbankscouldbeidentified.Intermsofconfidence,employeeswhodisplayedthemostworkedforfirmsthatweresolidlyestablishedandwhosesharepricehadnotbeenadverselyaffectedinrecentyearsbyadecliningreputationthewayDeutscheBank\'shadbeen.Itispossible,therefore,thatalackofsenseofsecuritymightbeatplayforemployeeswhoseconfidencewasnegativelyimpactedbythethoughtofaneconomiccrisis.Therationalchoicetheorywouldsuggestthatemployeeswhodidfeelshakenbythethoughtofnavigatinganothereconomiccrisiswe\'reexperiencingalossofconfidencebecausethedatatheywereinputtingindicatedalikelynegativefutureforthemselves.Fromamissioncommandperspective,theymightbetheoneswhowouldseektoadaptandfindanalternativepathforward.Aninterestinginvestigationthatmightbepursuedonthispointiswhetherturnoverratesarehighamongemployeeswhoreportedthattheirconfidencewaslackingatthethoughtoffacinganothereconomiccrisis.Thiscouldbedeterminedbysurveyingrespondents\'intentionstostay.Thequestionwasnotputtorespondents,butthefindingsdosuggestthatitmaybeafutureinquirypointworthpursuing.Anotherconsideration,however,maybetoapplyMaslow\'stheoryofmotivationtothematterandusingadifferenttheoreticalframeworkforinterpretingthedata.Forwhatifrationalchoicetheoryandtheconceptofmissioncommandonlypartiallyexplainthefindings?Maslow\'stheoryofhumanmotivationplaysanequallyimportantroleinunderstandingthedata.Heremaybethekeytofurtherunlockingthemeaningofthedata.Aninvestigationintowhetheremployeeswithalackofconfidencetheirlower-levelneedshavemetcouldberevealingandhelpwithfutureanalysis.ResearchQuestion2Doesgeopoliticalawarenessimpacttheconfidenceofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityregardingthesector\'sabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008?Thefindingshereweremixed.Geopoliticalawarenessshooktheconfidenceofsomeandbolsteredtheconfidenceofothers.Thereasonsgivenrevealedtwoconcurrentthemes:ontheonehand,awarenesshelpedalreadyconfidentbankemployeestofeelevenmoreconfidentbecausetheysawthemselvesasmoreinformedand,therefore,betterabletoassistclientsinmakingrightinvestmentdecisions.Thosewhowerealreadylackinginconfidenceweremadelessconfidentiftheyconsideredgeopoliticalriskfactorsaswell,fortheysawtheserisksasathreattotheirownjobsecurity.Oneexplanationforthisfeelingwasthattheysimplydidnottrusttheirbanktobeabletowithstandgeopoliticaltremorsthatmightspreadaroundtheworldshouldtheconflictescalateandroilmarketsandeconomiessimultaneously.Therevealingfindingherewasthatemployeeswholackedconfidenceweremadeevenlessconfidentbyawareness,andemployeeswhowereconfidentintheirbanksweremademoreconfidentintheirawarenessofgeopolitics.Somewhodemonstratedgeopoliticalawarenessandcouldappreciatetheriskthatgeopoliticsheldformarketsexpressedmoreconfidenceintheirbankstobeabletowithstandanystressorsaswellasconfidenceinthemselvestobeabletoguideclientsandperformtheirdutiesbasedupontheirknowledge.However,despitetheseassociationsandcorrelations,therewasnostatisticallysignificantcorrelationamongthevariables,andthenullhypothesiswasrejectedoncemore.Nonetheless,thepatternsofresponsesamongemployeesindicatethatthemesforfutureexplorationdoexistandmightbepositivelypursued.ResearchQuestion3Dochangesincentralbankmonetarypolicy(i.e.,goingfromquantitativeeasingtoquantitativetightening)andtheawarenessoftherisingdebtlevelsaroundtheworldaffecttheconfidencelevelsofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityonthesectorsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneseenfrom2007-2008?Thesamepatternofconfidencewasfoundinresponsetothisresearchquestionasintheothertwo:thosebankemployeeswhowereconfidentintheirfirmandinthemselveswerenotnegativelyimpactedbyawarenessofmonetarypolicyandrisingdebtlevels.Theysawawarenessasapositiveratherthanasanegativeevenifthefactsthattheywereawareofcouldbeperceivedasnegative.Theindividualswhohadconfidencesawinformationasatoolthattheycouldusetobebetterattheirjobs,whetherthatweresellingfinancialinstrumentstoclientsoranalyzingloans.Iftheytrustedtheindustry,thregulationsinplace,theirfirms,andthemselves,theywerenotputoffbydirereportsofrisingdebtorilleffectsofpolicyerrorsbycommittedbycentralbanks.Ontheotherhand,ifemployeesdidnothavethatlevelofconfidenceanddidnothaveahighleveloftrustintheirfirmorintheindustry,negativereportsofpotentialpolicyerrorrelatedtocentralbanks\'monetarypolicyandrisingdebtlevelswerefoundtoexacerbatetheirfearsfurtherandreducetheirconfidencestilllower.EmployeesofDeutscherepresentedtheleastconfidentgroup,andJ.PMorganChaseemployeesdemonstratedthemostneutrality.Incontrast,HSBCandBankofChinaemployeesdemonstratedapositivecorrelationbetweenawarenessofthevariablesandconfidence,thoughneitherwasstatisticallysignificant.Overall,therewasnostatisticallysignificantcorrelationbetweenawarenessofdebtlevelsandconfidence,andthereforethenullhypothesiswasrejectedathirdtime.Nonetheless,theassociationsbetweenworkersofthefirmwiththedecliningreputationandsharepricewereoveralllessconfidentthantheirpeersatfirmsperceivedtohaveastrongerreputation.Thissuggeststhattheremaybemoretotheissueofconfidencethanmereawarenessofrisksandcrises.Forthatreason,arationalchoiceframeworkwithanemphasisonamissionmaynotbethebestapproachtounderstandingthisdata.Thisrealizationisdiscussedmoreinthenextsection.WhattheFindingsMeanCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthissection:Evaluationoffindingsincludelinkstoscholarlyliteratureandtheoretical/conceptualframework.Thefindingsindicatethattherearenosignificantcorrelationsbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandbankemployees\'confidenceorbetweendebtlevelsandbankemployees\'confidence.Geopolitics,monetarypolicy,debt,andeconomiccrisisawarenessdonotappeartobeuniversalfactorsthatdecreasebankemployees\'confidencelevelsabouttheirbanksbeingabletosustainaglobaleconomiccrisisortheirownabilitytodotheirjobs.However,certainassociationsweremadethatcouldhelptoexplainsomepatternsperceivedinthesurvey.Whattheassociationssuggestedwasthatconfidenceexistedintheemployeespriortoanyawarenessandthatawarenessfueledwhicheverwayconfidencelevelsweretrendingamongworkers.Ifworkerswerelosingconfidence,awarenessofthesefactorsincreasedtheloss.Ifworkersweregainingorwerealreadyconfident,awarenessincreasedthatgainorbolsteredthatconfidence.Theawarenessinandofitselfwasnotnecessarilyasignificantfactorindeterminingtheconfidenceofemployeesintheinternationalbankingindustry.Somethingelsewascontributingtotheirconfidenceformationanddevelopment.Onepossibleexplanationfromtherationalchoiceandmissioncommandframeworksuggeststhatbankemployeesdonotquestionpolicyormissioninthelightofdevelopinggeopoliticalsituationsorincreasingdebtlevelsaroundtheworld.Rather,theyquestiontheirownfuturesintheindustryiftheyperceiveapotentialthreattotheirjobsecurity.Itdoesappearthatbankemployeeshavedifferentviewsandopinionsonthestateofmarkets,theroleofcentralbanks,andtheimpactofgeopoliticsdependingonwhatbankemploysthem.EmployeesofDeutscheBankshowedfarlessconfidenceinthesystem\'ssustainabilityoverallascomparedtoJ.P.Morgan.Thismayindicatethatanotherfactorisinfluencingtheresults,suchastheperceivedinternalstabilityofthebankemployingtheworker,forthereisnouniformityorconsensusamongthebankemployeesoverall.Overall,thefindingsareconsistentwithexistingliteraturethatasenseofmoralhazardorasenseofalackofconfidencehasnotgrownamongbankemployees.ItappearsasPikulinaetal.(2017)pointedoutthatlessonsfrom2008havenotbeenlearnedandthathistorycouldbeonthevergeofrepeatingitself.Ontheotherhand,Pikulinaetal.(2017)couldbeinterpretedashavinganegativeopinionoftheutilityofthefactsandofhavingalackoftrustorconfidenceintheindustrythatinfluencestheiroutlookandinterpretationoftheirownfindings.Ifoneisalreadyconfident,itmaynotbeamatterofignoranceofrisksorevents.Itmaysimplybeamatterofunderstandingtheutilityofthisinformationandwhetheronehasreachedalevelofself-actualizationinone\'sownlife.Topursuethatlineofthought,however,wouldrequireapplyinganothertheoreticalapproach,suchasMaslow\'s(1943).Inthelightofthetheoreticalframeworkofthestudy,rationalchoicetheory,whichpositsthatindividualsororganizationsmakedecisionsbasedontheweighingofcostsandbenefits,theresultssuggestthatoneneednotknowcostsorbenefitsastheyappearinrealityorone\'smindbecauseoneacceptsthattheinternationalbankingsectoristoobigtofail.Accordingtothetheoreticalframework,ifoneisnotconfidentaboutthecostsandbenefits,onecannotproceedeffectivelyinthedecision-makingprocess.However,thebankemployeesofmostbanksdidnotbearthissentimentoutintheirresponses.Thissuggeststhattheapproachisinadequateinmakingsenseoftheresponses.Reasonsforconfidenceincludedthebeliefthatbankingmodelswerecapableofwithstandingstressinthesystem;thecentralbankswouldprovidesufficientliquidity.Regulationshadbeenputinplacethatwouldpreventasimilarcrisisfromoccurringagain,andthatgeopoliticalriskwasnotafactorintoday\'smarket,whichwassupportedbythenowconventionalmonetarypolicyofcentralbanksaroundtheworldinterveninginmarketstosupportthem.Thebankersoverallheldtheviewthatthemarketswerenecessaryfordevelopedworldstomaintainsocialorder,aspensionfunds,insurancefunds,sovereignwealthfunds,andmutualfundsalldependuponthemarketplaceofferingastabledROI.Mostofthemweresatisfiedthatgovernmentswouldnotletmarketsfail.Theoverallstudywasdesignedtomeasurewhethertheinternationalbankingcommunityfeltconfidentthatitcouldwithstandanothercrisisliketheoneexperiencedin2008.Forthemostpart,bankersrespondedthattheywereconfidentintheindustry\'sstabilityandstrength.DeutscheBankemployeesrepresentedsomethingofanoutlier,butthiscouldbeexplainedbythefactthatDeutscheBank\'sreputationandthesharepricecollapsedinrecentyearsduetosystemicproblemswithrisk,leverage,andregulations.OtherpossibletheoreticalapproachesthatcouldofferdifferentinterpretationsofthefindingsmightincludeMaslow\'s(1943)theoryofhumanmotivationandthehierarchyofhumanneeds.ItwasMaslow\'s(1943)beliefthatself-esteemwasacrucialfactorneededontheroadtoself-actualization.Toobtainit,onemustreceivelovefromothers,whichinturnhelpsthepersontobuildconfidenceandsenseofself-worth.Ifthepersonneverreceivesanyloveoresteemfromothers,suchasparents,teachers,friends,orfamily,theirself-esteemislikelytobelow,andtheirsenseofself-valuelikelytobenil(Cosentino,2020).Self-esteemisthussomethingthatcannotbedismissedasitcontributestothedevelopmentoftheindividualandsupportshavingahappyandsuccessfullife.Sohowcouldself-esteembelinkedtothedatafromthesurveyofinternationalbankemployees?Self-esteemandtheotherfactorsthatenableonetobeself-actualizing,accordingtoMaslow\'smodelcouldbevariablesthatmightplayapartinthefeelingsofconfidenceoftheseemployees.Becausethedatawasnotapproachedfromthisperspectivebutratherfromthetheoreticalstandpointofrationalchoicetheory,needstheorywasnotapplied.However,wereittobeapplied,anewinterpretationofthedatacouldbeproducedthatcouldthentakefurtherinquiryintoanentirelydifferentdirectionparticularlywithrespecttothetopicofwhatfirmscandotohelpempoweremployeestobecomeconfident,self-actualizingemployees.SummaryEmployeesofDeutscheBankwereoutliersamongthethreeotherbanksregardingconfidenceintheinternationalbankingsystemtowithstandacrisisofsimilarproportionstothatof2008.Therewasnoclearindication,however,ofanysymmetryamongviewsofemployeesofanyofthefourbanksregardingtheimpactofgeopoliticaldevelopmentsorcentralbankinginterventioninthemarketsorthelevelsofdebtintheworld\'scountries.Theparticipantsindicatedingeneralthatconfidencewasmainlybasedontheawarenessthattheinternationalbankingsystemwasmuchbetterregulatedtodaythanadecadeagoandthatcentralbanksweremorepreparedtointervenetokeepthesystemstable.ThisconfidencewasfeltmoststronglyamongemployeesofJ.P.Morgan-Chase,HSBC,andBankofChina.Theapplicationoftherationalchoiceandmissioncommandtheoreticalframeworkonlypartiallyexplainsthefeelingsofconfidenceasexpressedbyparticipants.Applyingatheoreticalapproachthatusesafocusonneedstheory,suchasMaslow\'shierarchyofneedsmodel,couldbemorebeneficialinunderstandingwhethercertainworkersinthebankingindustryarenegativelyimpactedbynegativereportsofriskintheworldbecausetheylacktheinternalconfidencethatcomeswithself-actualization.Thenextchapterdiscussestheimplications,recommendationsforpractice,andrecommendationsforfutureresearchthatcanbedrawnfromthesefinding.Chapter5:Implications,RecommendationsandConclusionsThepurposeofthisquantitativedescriptivestudywastoassesstheconfidenceofmembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityregardingwhetherthesectorcansafelyhandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisislikethatseenin2007-2008andwhethergeopoliticalawarenessimpactsthatconfidencelevel.Itsoughtexplicitlytoassesswhethergeopoliticalawarenessimpactsthatconfidencelevel.Itwasbelievedthatassessingtheconfidencelevelsofbankersatthefourmajorinternationalbanks(J.P.MorganChase,DeutscheBank,HSBC,andBankofChina)couldhelpunderstandwhetherthesectorcansafelyhandleanotherglobaleconomicstressevent.Thisquantitativestudyusedastructuredsurveytoolinordertoobtaindatafrom1000differentinternationalbankers.Theaimofthestudyistoobtainaquantitativesenseofwhetherbankersintheinternationalcommunityfeeltheyarepreparedforablackswaneventlikethatofthe2007-2008globaleconomiccrisis.Thesecondarypurposeofthedesignwastodeterminewhetherconfidencelevelsandknowledgeofcertainfactorsregardingtheglobaleconomy/geopoliticalclimatearecorrelated.IusedmyLinkedInsocialmediaplatformtosend1000emailstoarandomizedsampleofemployeesatJ.P.MorganChase,DeutscheBank,HSBC,andBankofChinatorequestthattheyparticipateinthestructuredsurveyusingSurveyMonkey.Asampleof641from1000requestedparticipantscompletedthestudy.Thisstudyhaspresentedfindingsbasedontheideathatconfidenceplaysasignificantroleinhowmoneyisinvested.Everythingfrombondmarketstoequitymarketstopreciousmetalsandblockchainareimpactedbyconfidence(Haitsmaetal.,2016).Banksshould,therefore,havesomesenseofconfidencelevelsincaseanotherfinancialandeconomiccrisisoccurs.ResultsofthesurveyshowedthatEmployeesofDeutscheBankwereoutliersamongemployeesoftheotherthreebanksregardingconfidenceintheinternationalbankingsystemtowithstandacrisisofsimilarproportionstothatof2008.Therewasnoclearindication,however,ofanysymmetryamongviewsofemployeesofanyofthefourbanksregardingtheimpactofgeopoliticaldevelopmentsorcentralbankinginterventioninthemarketsorthelevelsofdebtintheworldscountries.Theparticipantsindicatedingeneralthatconfidencewasmainlybasedontheawarenessthattheinternationalbankingsystemwasmuchbetterregulatedtodaythanadecadeagoandthatcentralbanksweremorepreparedtointervenetokeepthesystemstable.Limitationsincludedthefactthatdatawasself-reported,whichhasbeenfoundtoleadinsomecasestounderreporting(Gemmingetal.,2014).Giventhelimitationsofthisstudyandthefactthatitrelieduponself-reporteddata,whichcanleadtounderreporting,analternativedatacollectionprocessmaybeadvised.Insteadofaself-administeredsurvey,researchersmightoptforadigitalfocusgroupusingZoom.WithmoreandmoremeetingstakingplaceovertheInternet,usingZoomcouldbeasimpleandeffectivewaytoposenewquestionsandobtainmoreinsightfuldatafirst-handfromparticipants.Moreexploratoryresearchcouldalsoprovidemorevariablestoconsiderintermsofwhatissuestheinternationalbankingcommunitydeemsimportantandhowthecommunitycanprepareforcriseslikethe2008marketcrashorthe2020pandemic.Thischapterdiscussestheimplicationsofthefindingsprovidedinthepreviouschapter.Italsoprovidesrecommendationsforpracticeandfutureresearch.Last,itoffersrecommendationsforfutureresearchaswellasconclusionsthataredrawnfromthefindings.ImplicationsCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthissection:Implicationsdiscussedintermsoffindingsforeachresearchquestion;areframedincontextofliteraturereview,theoretical/conceptualframework,significanceofstudy;andincludesdiscussionforpractice(applied)orhowstudycontributesThe2007-2008globaleconomiccrisisisaturningpointinmodernfinanceasitunleashedunconventionalmonetarypolicy,whichhasshapedtheworldnowthinksaboutequitiesanddebt.TheFederalReservehasnowcreatedanenvironmentinwhichthereisagreatdealofuncertaintyregardingwhatcomesnext.DoestheFederalReservedoastheAmericanPresidentwantsandcutratestozerowhilelaunchingQE4?PresidentTrumphasenteredatradewarwithChinaandneitherwantstobeperceivedasweakasbackingdown.Thiscreatesgeopoliticaltension,allowwiththecurrentprotestsinHongKong,whosepeopledonotwanttolosetheirtraditions.Thissayssomethingabouttherolethatcultureplaysintheproblemandwhetherliquidityissuesaresomethingtoconsider.QEcontinuationcouldupsettheentirefinancialsystem,sendingallyieldsbelowzero,stocksintothestratosphererightalongwithgold.MoreQEislikelytoresultindestructionwhilekeepinginterestratesartificiallylowislikelytoresultinmarketdisconnect,whichwillkeeptheworldsbankersinapositionwheretheyjustwanttobunkerdownandweatherthestormtillitpasses.Theimplicationsofthefindingssuggestedthattheinternationalbankingcommunitydoesnothaveaconfidenceproblem;investingandmakinginvestmentsforothersareconductedwithoutfearofwhataneconomiccrisismightdototheindustry.Thevariablesthatmightimpacttheindustrysbeliefwerenotfoundtobeweresignificant.Theroleofthecentralbankingislikelyonethatshouldbeexaminedinmoredetail,asitappearedfromfollow-upinterviewsthatthisrolewasrelevant.Thissectiondiscussestheimplicationsofthefindings.Theoverallimplicationsofthisstudyarethattheinternationalbankingcommunityappearsnottobeaffectedbygeopoliticalawareness,orbyawarenessofrisingdebtlevelsandunconventionalmonetarypolicy.Onthecontrary,itwassuggestedbymanyparticipantsthatunconventionalmonetarypolicywasthereasonfortheirconfidenceintheindustrysabilitytohandleanynewcrisesthatmightcomealong.Thefindingsdidnotsupporttheacceptanceofthehypotheses.Thelackofstatisticallysignificantrelationshipsamongthevariablessuggeststhatotherrelationshipsstillmayexistthatneedtobebetterunderstoodfortheinternationalbankingcommunitytomanageriskmosteffectively.Researchisalsothereforeneededintermsofassessinghowunderorover-confidenceisassessedbymanagersinvariousdepartments.Additionalresearchcouldconsistofinterviewswithmanagersfocusingonhowtheyevaluateemployeeconfidencelevelsorwhethertheyhaveanymetricatallforthisvariable.Ifconfidenceisanimportantfactorinconductingbusiness,shouldmanagersbeconcernedifitislackingorifitismisplaced?LookingspecificallyathowemployeesuseemotionwordsandwhethermanagerstakenoteofthesetomeasureconfidencecouldbeawaytoapplythefindingsofHoandCheng(2016)toindustryanalysis.ThenextlogicalstepinthislineofresearchistoidentifyevidenceforastrategyforelevatingriskawarenesswithintheindustryandleveragingconfidenceasanindicatornotonlyformanagerialdecisionsbutalsoforaneffectivereductionofriskForresearchquestiononetheaimwastoseeifworkinginabankpresentedanyconfidenceissuesforemployees.Bankemployeesareaskedtomakedecisionsthataffectthefirm,eveninsmallways,suchassellingproductstoclients,assessingthecreditworthinessofaclient,orgivinginvestmentadvice.Thelevelofconfidencethatemployeeshavecouldimpactthesedecisions,sothegoalherewastoseewhetherbankemployeeshaveconfidenceorwhethertheylackconfidenceintheirindustry.RQ1.Istheinternationalbankingcommunityconfidentinitsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008?H0.Thereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweenworkinginthebankingcommunityandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.Thereisasignificantrelationshipbetweenworkinginthebankingcommunityandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.Thenullhypothesiswasaccepted,indicatingthatconfidenceissuesarenotaproblemfortheinternationalbankingcommunity.Possibleexplanationsforthislackofassociationcouldbethatemployeesbelievedtheiremployershadimplementedtheappropriatecontrolsandpoliciesinthewakeofthe2008crisisandthattheywerenowbetterpreparedtohandleriskandvolatility.ThoughthissurveywasconductedbeforetheMarch2020marketvolatilityasitrelatedtotheglobalspreadofcoronavirus;therapidbounce-backofthemarketoveramatterofweekssuggestedthattheemployeesofthefirmswerepossiblyjustifiedintheirconfidence,andthattheirinstitutionswouldbeabletohandleanyvolatilitywithrelativeease.Onecaveatinthisexplanation,however,istheroleofthecentralbanksoftheworld,andincludingliquidityintomarketsthroughavarietyofdifferentmaneuvers,suchasthepurchasingofhighyieldjunkbondsbytheFederalReserveandtheoutrightpurchasingofequitiesbytheBankofJapan.InresponsetotheCOVID-19crisis,centralbanksinjected10trillionUSDintomarkets.Theoverwhelmingresponseofreplieswasaffirmative,with90%ofrespondents(240total)statingthat,yes,theirimpressionsthatthecentralbankswouldstepintobringstabilitytothmarketplaceandtherebytotheinternationalfinanceindustrywasthesourceoftheirconfidence,sincethecentralbankshadsetaprecedentforpreciselythattypeofactivityintheirresponsetothe2008economiccrisis.Forresearchquestiontwotheaimwastoassesswhethertheconfidencelevelsofbankemployeesareimpactedinanegativeorpositivewaybytheirawarenessofgeopoliticalevents.Geopoliticscanintroducestressintothemarketplace,whichcaninturnimpacttheindustry.Thegoalwastoseewhetherhavingasenseofgeopoliticalissuesmadebankemployeesfeellessconfidentintheirindustry.RQ2.Doesgeopoliticalawarenesshaveanimpactontheconfidenceofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityregardingthesector\'sabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneexperiencedfrom2007-2008?H0.Thereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.Thereisasignificantrelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.ForRQ2,thenullhypothesiswasacceptedasthefindingsshowedconclusiveevidenceofasignificantrelationshipbetweenthevariables.Somecorrelationdidexist,however.Forapproximatelyhalfoftheparticipantsgeopoliticalawarenesscorrelatedpositivelywithconfidence.Employeesbelievedthatbyunderstandinggeopoliticalissues,theywerebettersituatedtoprovideexpertadviceandguidancefortheirclients.Forthree-fourthsofemployeesatDeutscheBank,awarenessofgeopoliticsdidnotinspireconfidencebutratherfearanddread.Oneexplanationforthiscouldbethattheseemployeesdidnottrusttheirfirmtobeabletonavigatethefalloutofgeopoliticaltensionandconflict.Thekeyinsightfromthisfindingisthatthefirmsreputationcanimpactemployeeperceptionsofhowtointerpretgeopoliticalrisk.Ifafirmsreputationisstrong,employeesaremorelikelytoconsidergeopoliticalawarenessintermsofhowtheycanusetobenefitclientsandtheirfirmsandthusthemselves.Ifafirmsreputationisweak,employeesaremorelikelytofearthefalloutofgeopoliticalconflictandhowitmightimpacttheirfirmnegativelyand,thus,inturn,impacttheircareers.Thissuggeststhatbanksthatlackinternalstrengthorthatareplaguedbyanexodusofshareholders,asDeutscheBankhasbeenexperiencinginthepast,arelesslikelytohaveemployeeswhobelievethatgeopoliticalawarenessissomethingthattheycanuseintheirfavortoassistclients.Instead,theyviewanytypeofglobaltensionorconflictasinherentlyriskyandharmfulfortheindustrybecausetheyfeartheimpactitcouldhaveonweakfirmsliketheirown.Employeeswhoviewtheirfirmsasstrong,ontheotherhand,willusegeopoliticalawarenesswithconfidencebecausetheyarenotworriedthattheirowncompanymaybeadverselyimpactedbyglobalconflict,andforthatreason,theyaremoreinclinedtoembracegeopoliticalriskorturmoilandusethatunderstandingtohelpclientsmaketherightinvestmentsortakeouttherightloansattherighttime.Nearlyhalfofallemployeesparticipatinginthesurveyfeltthatgeopoliticalawarenessgavethemmoreconfidence,notless,andalmostthree-fourthsofallemployeesfeltthatattheveryleast,ithadnonegativeimpactontheirconfidencelevelsregardingtheindustryasawhole,asTable4-3shows.Forresearchquestionthreetheaimwastoseewhethertheconfidenceofbankemployeeswasshakenorsupportedbytheirawarenessofcentralbankmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsofnationsaroundtheworld.Theseissuesareoftenimportanttoclients,whomightbeworriedbythem.Thegoalherewastoseewhethertheseissuesimpactbankemployeestoo.RQ3.Dochangesincentralbankmonetarypolicy(i.e.,goingfromquantitativeeasingtoquantitativetightening)andtheawarenessoftherisingdebtlevelsaroundtheworldaffecttheconfidencelevelsofthemembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunityonthesectorsabilitytohandleanotherglobaleconomiccrisisliketheoneseenfrom2007-2008?H0.Thereisnosignificantrelationshipbetweenawarenessofmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.H1.Thereisasignificantrelationshipbetweenawarenessofmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsandconfidencethattheindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.ForRQ3,thenullhypothesiswasaccepted.Theimplicationsofthisfindingsuggestedthatmonetarypolicyanddebtlevelsarenotseriousconcernsfortheinternationalbankingindustry.Onepossibleexplanationforthiscouldbethatmoralhazardhasbecomeinstitutionalizedandnormalizedthankstounprecedentedinterventionsfromcentralbanks.Aslongastheindustrybelievescentralbankswillbetheretosupportmarketsintimesofvolatilityandstress,debtisnotseenasaproblem.TherecentrelaxationoftheVolckerrulesuggestedthattheFederalReserveismoreinterestedinamarketthatisliquidthanamarketthatismodestlyadherenttoanytypeofconstraints(OxfordAnalytica,2018).Monetarypolicyisnowviewedasanormalresponsetomarketstress(Li&Tian,2018).Withrespecttothefindings,Sens(1977)rationalfoolstheoryprovidesthebestexplanationforthefindings.Participantscouldbesaidtobeequallyrationalandwishfulatthesametime,whichistheparadoxattheheartofSens(1977)rationalfoolstheory.Inrationalchoicetheory,anindividualisassumedtomakeactionsbasedonweighingtheprosandcons,thebenefitsandcostsofthataction.However,Senarguedthatpeoplecanactirrationallyeitherbyengaginginwishfulthinkingorsimplybythefactthattheirconsciousnessisfallible.Thus,theymayviewthemselvesasrationalactors,buttheydonotconsidertheextenttowhichtheymaybeoverly-optimisticoroverly-pessimistic.Werepeopletodoso,theywouldpotentiallycreatefrictionandpossiblecognitivedissonance.Instead,theyintuitwhattheyshoulddoratherthanengageinarationalexplorationofthefactsandmakedecisionsaccordingly.Inthefieldoffinanceandinvestment,feelingoneswaylacksacertainscientificfinesseorrigorthatclientsmightexpectoftheirbankagents.Ifemployeesareconfident,theycanoffertheirclientstheproductsandservicestheyadvertise.Isthisconfidencewell-foundedorisitbasedonwishfulthinking?Isitbasedonassumptionsthattheirbankcannotfail?Isitbasedonthebeliefthatwhateverhappensintheexternalenvironmentthecentralbankswillnotpermitanothereconomiccrisis?Sens(1977)rationalfoolstheorypositsthateconomicmanisonlypartlyarationallyactingcreatureandthatthisisevidentinthewayhegoesabouthisbusiness.Thebusinessofsales,investing,lending,managingmoneyoradvisingisonethatnecessitatesanalysisandtheuseofreason,yettheparticipantsinthisstudyappeartoalargedegreeunaffectedbyvariousfactorsthatwouldmakeinvestorsorclientsanxious.Sen(1977)arguesthatdecisionmakersarecomfortablefeelingtheirwaytoadecisionbecausetheyintuitthattheyaredoingfortheirclientswhattheyareintendedtodo.Thistheorymakessenseiftheinternationalbankingsectorcanbecharacterizedintermsofafreemarketsystem,whererationalchoiceandmissioncommandstillmatter.Iftheglobaleconomyhas,ontheotherhand,adoptedmorecharacteristicsofacommandeconomywherecentralbankinginterventionisrelieduponroutinelyandregularlytokeepmarketinvestmentsstable,itshouldnotbesurprisingtofindthatbankersareinsensitivetogeopoliticalthreatsorrisks,torisingdebtlevels,ortofearingeneral.UnlessemployeeshavebeendirectlyorpersonallyaffectedbydestabilizationandjobcuttinglikeatDeutscheBankinrecentyearsitmakessensethatconfidencelevelsarehigh.Thenatureofthemodernglobaleconomywarrantsit.Thesystemitselfhastransitionedandchangedfromthe1970swhenSensrationalfoolstheorywasposited.Sen(1977)arguedthatthepurelyeconomicmanisindeedclosetobeasocialmoronforhefailstoconsiderthesocialfactorsatworkintheeconomicsphere(p.320).Inthepast,themarkethadmorecharacteristicsofafreemarket,wherepricediscoverywasgenerallyconductedbyinvestorsovertime.Todaysmarketsarecharacterizedmorebycentralbankingintervention,largeinjectionsofliquidityfromcentralbanks,andone-directionmovementsinmarketinwhatisnowthelongestbullmarketinhistory.Itisnolongersocialfactorsthatmatterasmuchasthecontrolfactorsofcentralbanks.Inthisclimateitisthereforenotsurprisingtofindthatofemployeesofthebigfourbanks,thoseofDeutscheweremostsensitivetorisk.Meaning,DeutscheBankhascomeundersubstantialpressureinrecentyearsanditsfallingstockpricereflectsthatstress.Thiscouldexplainsomeofthemorepessimisticoutlooksoftheparticipatingemployeesfromthatbank.Fortheseemployees,sensitivitytoriskpromptedthemtofearpotentiallydestabilizingeffectsmoresothanworkersatbankswhereemployeesfeltsecure.Basedupontheresponsesofthebankingemployeesoverall,thereisnoindicationofastatisticallysignificantlackofconfidencethatthebankingsectorispreparedtohandleastresseventlikethatof2008.Onepossibleexplanationforthisisthatmanyoftheemployeesepectcentralbankstointervenetostabilizemarketsifthereisanymeaningfuldecline.Ifjudgingfromrecenthistorygivesanyindication,thisconfidenceislikelywell-foundedandnotirrational.RecommendationsforPracticeCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthissection:Recommendationsarebasedonthefindingsofthestudyandincludepracticaland/ortheoreticalapplication.Recommendationsformanagersare,therefore,thattheyconsidertheriskofoverconfidenceastheyplantheirinteractionswithcustomersandclients,engageinportfoliomanagement,ordevelopsalesstrategies.Theemployeesthemselvesmaynotnecessarilyfeelfearatthistimebutthelackoffearmayitselfbeanindicationthatoverconfidenceisdevelopingandthatasshowedthiscouldbearedflagofcautioninandofitselfaharbingerofrisingriskwithinthesystem(Pikulinaetal.,2017).ThoughtheemployeesofDeutscheBankwereoutliersamongtheotherrespondents,thefactthatDeutscheBankitselfhasexperiencedincreasedpressuresuggeststhattherisksarerealandrising,atleastforitsemployees.Shouldthefirmsstockcontinuetofall,jobsecuritywilllikelybethreatened.Thatinandofitselfshouldgiveemployeesreasontobefearful,sinceself-interestnecessarilygovernsdecision-making.Managerswithintheinternationalbankingindustryshouldconsiderdevelopingriskmanagementstrategiesthatspecificallyaddresstheissueofoverconfidenceamongemployeesintheindustry.Employeesinsales,analysis,lendingandinvestmentsmadeupthebulkofparticipantsinthisstudyandeachofthesedepartmentshaveaconsiderableimpactontheoverallsuccessofthebanktheyrepresent.Theyareresponsibleforsellingproductsandbringinginstablereturnsforthefirm,returnsthathelpthefirmtocanceloutlossessufferedbyotherdepartmentsoverthecourseofthefiscalyear.Ifoverconfidenceamongthemisconsistentlyevident,asappearstobethecaseinthisstudy,itindicatesthatthereisalackofprudentialthinkingbeingimplementedfromamissioncommandpointofview.Rationalchoicetheorymightindicatethatinacommandeconomywhichischaracterizedbytodayscentralbanksmanagingmarketsthereisnorealreasonforbankemployeestofearstressorssincethecentralbanksarereadytoaddresssystemicstressthroughliquidityinjections.Theproblemwiththisisthatliquidityinjectionscanleadtounintendedconsequences(Crosignanietal.,2019).Thereisnonethelessaneedtounderstandifemployeesunderstandtherisksandunintendedconsequencesofrelyingtooheavilyoncentralbankinterventionismformarketstability.Managersshouldexploretheoptionsavailabletothemforassessingriskwithintheirdepartmentsbasedonoverconfidenceanddeveloprisk-mitigationstrategiesaccordingly.RecommendationsforFutureResearchCommentbyAuthor:MeetsAcademicReaderchecklistforthissection:Recommendationsarebasedonthefindingsofthestudyandincludesuggestionsforfutureresearch.Basedontheframework,findings,andimplications,futureresearchersmightwanttofocusontherolethatmanagerscanplayinreducingrisks,makingbetterrationalchoicesinmanagingdepartments,anddevelopingmetricstoassesswhetheremployeesarelackingconfidenceorexhibitingoverconfidenceandwhattheoutcomescouldbeineithercase.Additionally,confidenceamongmostemployeesoftheinternationalbankingsectordoesnotappeartobeimpactedbygeopoliticalawareness,leveragedaccountsandrisingdebt.Thoughthesevariableswereofsomeconcerntosomeoftheparticipantssurveyed,theoveralldatasuggestedthattherewasnosignificantcorrelationbetweenthemandconfidence.Thereisthusaneedtobetterunderstandwhatmightalterconfidenceamongmembersoftheinternationalbankingcommunity.Overall,trustappearstobebasedoncentralbankinterventionism.Waystounderstandwhatmightalterconfidencecouldbetoconductafocusgroup,toconductinterviews,ortosurveythebankemployeeswithanexplicitfocusonobtainingtheirviewsofcentralbankactivism.However,thislevelofconfidencedoesnotnecessarilyreflectalackofriskinmarkets.Withcentralbankinterventionismcomeshigherassetpricesasliquidityinjectionsfuelassetpurchases.Onecanseefromthepriceofgoldatthestartof2020followingFederalReserveRepoMarketinterventionsthatbankerscannotbeoblivioustotheimpactofpricesthatliquidityinjectionshavehadonmarkets.Riskneedstobeconsideredmorecarefullybecausetheenvironmentinwhichbanksarenowoperatinghaschangedsubstantiallysinceadecadeago.Quantitativeeasingisnowthenormandtheexpectationamongbankingemployeesyettheremaybetoolittleunderstandingofwhatliquidityinjectionsdolong-termtoassetvalues,howtheyimpactlendingstrategies,investmentmodels,andsales.Futureresearchcanusethefindingsofthisstudytobeginexploringwhetherconfidenceoroverconfidenceincentralbankinginterventionismisariskthatmanagersshouldconsider.Rationaldecisionmakingisanotherissuethatshouldbeexploredfurther.Consideringthelimitationsofthisstudy,theextenttowhichrationalchoicecanexplaintheoutlookofemployeesinsales,investments,lending,andanalysisallneedstobeexaminedmoreclosely.Thestudyonlypartlyexaminedtherelationshipbetweenworkersinthebankingindustryandoutlooksbasedonthevariablesofconfidence,geopoliticalawareness,debtunderstandingandQE.Anassessmentoftheactualindividualdepartmentsandtheirmanagerscouldprovideaddedbenefitintermsofhowconfidenceisinterpreted,used,andpotentiallyguardedagainst.ConclusionsConfidenceamongbankersneedstobebetterunderstoodmovingforward.Itmaybemisplaced,causingmanymoneymanagers,advisors,lenders,salesrepsandanalyststotakemisguidedstepsintheiroperationsoronbehalfofclients.Oritmaybeanindicatorthatbankmanagerscanusetodevelopriskmanagementstrategies.Confidenceisavariablethatexists,anditplaysapartinthedecisionmakingofbankemployeesbutthefactorsthatimpactconfidenceandtheeffectthatconfidencehasontheindustryoverallissomethingthatremainsunclear.Thisstudyhasshownthatthereisnoclearorconsistentorsignificantrelationshipbetweengeopoliticalawarenessandconfidenceamongbankemployeesandyetconfidencehasbeenshowntobeanimportantfactorinthedecision-makingprocess.Confidenceinasystemthatmayormaynotbeabletomaintainitselfinthefaceofasuddenglobalstresseventcouldbemisplaced.Thisstudyhasindicatedthatconfidenceremainsanelusivetermandinanindustrywhereconfidenceisimportanthavingaclearsenseofwhatitmeanstobeconfidentinonesorganizationorintheoveralleconomicandfinancialabilityoftheworldsmarketstosustainthemselvesissomethingthatshouldbefurtherexamined.Withrespecttopreviousresearch,Lupton(2019),Dimon(2018)andBuyletal.(2019)haveshownaneedforconfidenceintheindustrytobeaddressed.Eachhasindicatedthattheindustryisfacingapivotalmomentinhistoryandthatifmistakesaremadenow,becauseofeitheralackofconfidenceormisplacedconfidence,itcouldleadtosignificantproblemsfortheindustryinthefuture.HoandCheng(2016)haveshownthatemotionwordscanbeanindicatoraboutthekindofconfidencethatpeoplepossess.Thisstudyconfirmsthatconfidenceisstillavagueconceptthatrequirescloserattentionanditalsosuggestswiththatmoreattentionbegiventotheissueofconfidencesothatbanksarenotinanunfavorablepositioninastressevent(Giles,2017;Heller,2017).ReferencesAdrian,T.,&Shin,H.S.(2010).Liquidityandleverage.Journaloffinancialintermediation,19(3),418-437.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2008.12.002ADRP6-0.(2012).Missioncommand.Headquarters,DepartmentoftheArmy.Ainger,J.(2019).Theunstoppablesurgeinnegativeyieldsreaches$17trillion.https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/negative-yield-bonds/Aljzeera.(2020May,5).Venezuela\'sMaduro:Americanscapturedinfailedcoupplot.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/venezuela-americans-nabbed-failed-coup-plot-200505025057889.htmlAllison,G.(2017).Destinedforwar:CanAmericaandChinaescapeThucydides\'strap?HoughtonMifflinHarcourt.Alonso-Trabanco,J.(2019).GeopoliticsandtheAsianinfrastructureinvestmentbankanalysis.https://www.eurasiareview.com/06072019-geopolitics-and-the-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-analysis/Anand,P.(1995).FoundationsofRationalChoiceUnderRisk.OUPCatalogue,OxfordUniversityPress,number9780198774426.Ashton,P.(2009).Anappetiteforyield:Theanatomyofthesubprimemortgagecrisis.EnvironmentandPlanningA,41(6),1420-1441.https://doi.org/10.1068/a40328ArmasA.,CastilloP.,&VegaM.(2014).Inflationtargetingandquantitativetightening:effectsofreserverequirementsinPeru.Economia,15(1),133-175.https//doi.org/10.2307/24368352Balaawi,M.M.(2017September,26).BeltandRoadInitiative(BRI):TheChinaOneBelt,OneRoadProject.SeminarheldonTuesday26September2017attheAcademy.http://ira.academy/en/seminar-china-one-belt-one-road-project/Bartash,J.(2018).Hereswhoownsarecord$21.21trillionfU.S.debt.MarketWatch[online].https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-who-owns-a-record-2121-trillion-of-us-debt-2018-08-21Bauman,K.E.,Fisher,L.A.,Bryan,E.S.,&Chenoweth,R.L.(1984).Antecedents,subjectiveexpectedutility,andbehavior:Apanelstudyofadolescentcigarettesmoking.Addictivebehaviors,9(2),121-136.https://doi.org/10.1016/0306-4603(84)90050-9BBC.(2019).USeconomyunderTrump:Isitthegreatestinhistory?Retrievedfromhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-45827430Belke,A.H.,Gros,D.,&Osowski,T.(2016).DidquantitativeeasingaffectinterestratesoutsidetheUS?Newevidencebasedoninterestratedifferentials.NewEvidenceBasedonInterestRateDifferentials(January26,2016).CEPSWorkingDocument,(416).http://aei.pitt.edu/71011/1/WD416_Did_QE_affect_interest_rates_0.pdfBennett,W.L.,&Segerberg,A.(2011).Digitalmediaandthepersonalizationofcollectiveaction:Socialtechnologyandtheorganizationofprotestsagainsttheglobaleconomiccrisis.Information,Communication&Society,14(6),770-799.https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2011.579141Bernstein,J.(2019).Atightjobmarketisapotentforceagainstinequalityandwagestagnation.https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/02/01/tight-job-market-is-potent-force-against-inequality-wage-stagnation/?utm_term=.0a531cf24efbBlackwill,R.D.(2019).Trumpsforeignpoliciesarebetterthantheyseem.CouncilSpecialReportNo.84.https://www.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CSR%2084_Blackwill_Trump.pdfBouvatier,V.,&Delatte,A.L.(2015).Wavesofinternationalbankingintegration:Ataleofregionaldifferences.EuropeanEconomicReview,80,354-373.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.10.004Boxwell,R.(2018).HowChinasrampantintellectualpropertytheft,longoverlookedbyUS,sparkedtradewar.https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2170132/how-chinas-rampant-intellectual-property-theftBrown,B.(2019).InflationandtheBoom-BustCycleinCorporateLeverage.AtlanticEconomicJournal,47(1),25-34.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11293-019-09604-xBruno,V.,&Shin,H.S.(2015).Capitalflowsandtherisk-takingchannelofmonetarypolicy.JournalofMonetaryEconomics,71,119-132.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.11.011Buchanan,E.(2019).WhatRussiawantsinamultipolarworld.TheInterpreter,LowyInstitute.https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-russia-wants-multipolar-worldBuskins,V.(2015).Rationalchoicetheoryinsociology.InternationalEncyclopediaoftheSocial&BehavioralSciences(SecondEdition),901-906.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.32177-8Buyl,T.,Boone,C.,&Wade,J.B.(2019).CEOnarcissism,risk-taking,andresilience:AnempiricalanalysisinUScommercialbanks.JournalofManagement,45(4),1372-1400.https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206317699521Cai,K.G.(2018).TheonebeltoneroadandtheAsianinfrastructureinvestmentbank:Beijingsnewstrategyofgeoeconomicsandgeopolitics.JournalofContemporaryChina,27(114),831-847.https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2018.1488101Cavanna,T.P.(2019).UnlockingthegatesofEurasia:China\'sBeltandRoadInitiativeanditsimplicationsforUSGrandStrategy.TexasNationalSecurityReview.https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/bitstream/handle/2152/75825/TNSRVol2Iss3_Cavanna.pdf?sequence=2Chang,C.,Duke,J.,Hsieh,S.(2011).Aloopholeinfinancialaccounting:Adetailedanalysisofrepo105.JournalofAppliedBusinessResearch,27(5),30-45.https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v27i5.5590Charoenwong,B.,Morck,R.,&Wiwattanakantang,Y.(2019).Bankofjapanequitypurchases:Thefinalfrontierinextremequantitativeeasing.WorkingPaper25525.http://www.nber.org/papers/w25525Cho,Y,&Kumon,T.(2019January,7).China,RussiaandEUedgeawayfrompetrodollarRiseofUSunilateralismraisesconcernaboutrelyingongreenbackforoiltrade.NikkeiAsianReview.https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-Russia-and-EU-edge-away-from-petrodollarCohenJ.(1988).Statisticalpoweranalysisforthebehavioralsciences.NewYork(NY):LawrenceErlbaumAssociatesClarke,H.D.,Rapkin,J.,&Stewart,M.C.(1994).Apresidentoutofwork:anoteonthepoliticaleconomyofpresidentialapprovalintheBushyears.BritishJournalofPoliticalScience,24(4),535-548.https://www.jstor.org/stable/194033Colander,D.,Goldberg,M.,Haas,A.,Juselius,K.,Kirman,A.,Lux,T.,&Sloth,B.(2009).Thefinancialcrisisandthesystemicfailureoftheeconomicsprofession.CriticalReview,21(2-3),249-267.https://doi.org/10.1080/08913810902934109Cornish,D.,&Clarke,R.(1987).Understandingcrimedisplacement:Anapplicationofrationalchoicetheory.Criminology,25(4),933947.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1987.tb00826.xCosentino,B.W.(2020).LovingYourself.Howtoraiseyourself-esteem.https://www.wkhs.com/health-resources/health-library/article?chunkid=14266&lang=English&db=hltCouncilonForeignRelationsCFR(2018).GeostrategicandMilitaryDriversandImplicationsoftheBeltandRoadInitiative.https://www.cfr.org/report/geostrategic-and-military-drivers-and-implications-belt-and-road-initiativeCox,J.(2019).Privatepayrollgrowthtopsestimatesasjobmarketshowssignsoftightening.https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/private-payrolls-up-156k-in-july-vs-150k-est-adpmoodys.htmlD\'Haeseleer,B.(2019).PavingthewayforBaghdad:TheUSinvasionofPanama,1989.TheInternationalHistoryReview,41(6),1194-1215.https://doi.org/10.1080/07075332.2018.1480512delaSablonnire,R.(2017).Towardapsychologyofsocialchange:Atypologyofsocialchange.FrontiersinPsychology,8,Article397.https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00397Dimon,J.(2017).Lettertoshareholders.https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2017/ar-ceo-letters.htmDijink,G.(2002).Nationalidentityandgeopoliticalvisions:Mapsofprideandpain.Routledge.Domm,P.(2019).Fallinginterestratesaresendingawarningsignaltothestockmarket.https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/falling-interest-rates-are-sending-a-warning-signal-to-the-stock-market.htmlDorsey,J.M.(2019).Trumpstradewars:ANewWorldOrder?Begin-SadatCenterforStrategicStudies.http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep24339Durden,T.(2019).BillDudleyShocker:Ex-NYFedPresidenturgesFed\'sPowelltopreventTrumpre-election.https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-27/bill-dudley-shocker-ex-ny-fed-president-urges-feds-powell-prevent-trump-re-electionGaither,B.M.,Austin,L.,&Schulz,M.(2018).DelineatingCSRandsocialchange:Queryingcorporationsasactorsforsocialgood.PublicRelationsInquiry,7(1),4561.https://doi.org/10.1177/2046147X17743544Gaman-Golutvina,O.(2018).PoliticalElitesintheUSAunderGeorgeW.BushandBarackObama:StructureandInternationalPolitics.HistoricalSocialResearch,43(4),141-163.https://doi.org/10.12759/hsr.43.2018.4.141-163GilesC.(2017).Centralbankersfaceacrisisofconfidenceasmodelsfail.https://www.ft.com/content/333b3406-acd5-lle7-beba-552lc713abf4Glasser,K.(2019).Wargames:Trump,Bolton,andtheallegedmarchtofightIran.https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/war-games-trump-bolton-and-the-alleged-march-to-fight-iranGoodman,M.P.(2016).Theevolvinginstitutionallandscape.InCohen,C.,&Dalton,M.(Eds.).GlobalFlashpoints2016:CrisisandOpportunity.CenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies(pp.95-97).Rowman&Littlefield.Greenfield,H.(2010).Thedeclineofthebest:AninsiderslessonsfromLehmanBrothers.LeadertoLeader,55,30-36.https://doi.org/10.1002/ltl.399Haitsma,R.,Unalmis,D.,&deHaan,J.(2016).TheimpactoftheECB\'sconventionalandunconventionalmonetarypoliciesonstockmarkets.JournalofMacroeconomics,48,101-116.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.02.004Hanson,T.(2013).FailureofcommandatPeaRidge,1862.InD.Wright(Ed.),16CasesofMissionCommand.FortLeavenworth,Kansas:CombatStudiesInstitutePress.Harris,R.(2013).Warningsignspriortothefinancialcrisisof2008:Acomparativeanalysis.JournalofManagement&Engineering,6(1),88-97.ProQuest(No.65b1a0c954b5472b27a04b73feb5f12c).Harris,M.,&Raviv,A.(1990).Capitalstructureandtheinformationalroleofdebt.TheJournalofFinance,45(2),321-349.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb03693.xHarwood,J.(2019).5Reasonswhyincomeinequalityhasbecomeamajorpoliticalissue.https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/5-reasons-income-inequality-has-become-a-major-political-issue.htmlHasan,M.(2020May,9).ThecoupattemptinVenezuelaseemsridiculous.ButdontforgetregimechangeistheU.S.goal.TheIntercept.https://theintercept.com/2020/05/09/venezuela-coup-regime-change/Hass,R.,&Denmark,A.(2020August,7).Morepainthangain:HowtheUS-ChinatradewarhurtAmerica.OrderfromChaos.https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/morepain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/Heller,R.(2017).Monetarymischiefandthedebttrap.CatoJournal,37(2),247-261.https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/catoj37&div=28&id=&page=Hickman,G.R.(2010).Leadingchangeinmultiplecontexts:conceptsandpracticesinorganizational,community,political,social,andglobalchangesettings.LosAngeles:SAGE.http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781452274706.n8Ho,J.,&Cheng,W.(2016).Metaphorsinfinancialanalysisreports:Howareemotionsexpressed?EnglishforSpecificPurposes,43,37-48.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esp.2016.04.001Ho,P.H.,Huang,C.W.,Lin,C.Y.,&Yen,J.F.(2016).CEOoverconfidenceandfinancialcrisis:Evidencefrombanklendingandleverage.JournalofFinancialEconomics,120(1),194-209.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.04.007Huang,K.,&Shang,C.(2019).Leverage,debtmaturity,andsocialcapital.JournalofCorporateFinance,54,26-46.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2018.11.001Huston,J.H.,&Spencer,R.W.(2018).Quantitativeeasingandassetbubbles.AppliedEconomicsLetters,25(6),369-374.https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1324604InternationalInstituteforGreenFinance(2020)CountriesoftheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI).CentralUniversityforFinanceandEconomics,Beijing.https://green-bri.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri?cookie-state-change=1599239854912JapanTimes.(2018).ChinatoallowvictimsofIPthefttosuefordamages.https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/12/24/asia-pacific/china-allow-victims-ip-theft-sue-damages/Kanagaretnam,K.,Lobo,G.J.,Wang,C.,&Whalen,D.J.(2015).Religiosityandrisk-takingininternationalbanking.JournalofBehavioralandExperimentalFinance,7,42-59.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2015.07.004Knott,S.(2019).GeorgeH.W.Bush:ForeignAffairs.MillerCenter.https://millercenter.org/president/bush/foreign-affairsKnutsen,T.L.(2020).Ahistoryofinternationalrelationstheory.ManchesterUniversityPress.Krishna,A.(2020).TheperilsofUShegemony,thepetrodollarandtheroleIndiacouldplayintheemergenceoftheNewWorldOrder.OpinIndia.https://www.opindia.com/2020/04/perils-us-hegemony-petrodollar-role-of-india-new-world-order/Lee,J.P.,Lin,E.M.,Lin,J.J.,&Zhao,Y.(2019).BanksystemicriskandCEOoverconfidence.TheNorthAmericanJournalofEconomicsandFinance,100946https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.03.011Lewis,E.F.,Hardy,M.,&Snaith,B.(2013).Estimatingtheeffectofnonresponsebiasinasurveyofhospitalorganizations.Evaluation&theHealthProfessions,36(3),330-351.https://doi.org/10.1177/0163278713496565Lima,L.,Vasconcelos,C.F.,Simo,J.,&deMendona,H.F.(2016).ThequantitativeeasingeffectonthestockmarketoftheUSA,theUKandJapan.JournalofEconomicStudies,43(6),006-1021.https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-05-2015-00811Little,W.,Vyain,S.,Scaramuzzo,G.,Cody-Rydzewski,S.,Griffiths,H.,Strayer,E.,&Keirns,N.(2014).IntroductiontoSociology-1stCanadianedition.Victoria,BC:BCcampus.Retrievedfromhttps://opentextbc.ca/introductiontosociology.Loomes,G.,&Sugden,R.(1982).Regrettheory:Analternativetheoryofrationalchoiceunderuncertainty.TheEconomicJournal,92(368),805-824.https://www.jstor.org/stable/2232669Lukyanov,F.(2016).Putin\'sforeignpolicy:ThequesttorestoreRussia\'srightfulplace.ForeignAffairs,95(3),30-37.https://www.jstor.org/stable/43946855Lupton,J.(2018).10Yearsafterthefinancialcrisis.https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/10-years-after-crisisMaslow,A.H.(1958).Adynamictheoryofhumanmotivation.InC.L.Stacey&M.DeMartino(Eds.),Understandinghumanmotivation(p.2647).HowardAllenPublishers.https://doi.org/10.1037/11305-004Mauldin,J.(2018).ThenextrecessionmightbeworsethantheGreatDepression.https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/03/20/the-next-recession-might-be-worse-than-the-great-depression/#6df9e2469b97McDonald,R.,&Paulson,A.(2015).AIGinHindsight.JournalofEconomicPerspectives,29(2),81-106.https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.2.81McLaughlin,J.(2019).AsconcernsgrowaboutfalteringU.S.supportforUAE,Chinastepsintofillthevoid.https://news.yahoo.com/as-concerns-grow-about-faltering-us-support-for-uae-china-steps-in-to-fill-the-void-211701915.htmlMcLean,B.&Nocera,J.(2011).Allthedevilsarehere:Thehiddenhistoryofthefinancialcrisis.NewYork,NY:Penguin.Miquel,G.P.I.,Qian,N.,Xu,Y.,&Yao,Y.(2015).Makingdemocracywork:Culture,socialcapitalandelectionsinChina.SocialCapitalandElectionsinChina.NBERWorkingPaper,(w21058).Nilakantan,N.(2010).MarketingofderivativesintheaftermathofLehmanCrisis.Synergy,8(2),43-53.ProQuest(No.f175af678d213d532219ba1aa177b453).Ordonez,G.(20l8).Confidencebankingandstrategicdefault.JournalofMonetaryEconomics,100,101-113.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.07.010O\'Reilly,B.,&Dugard,M.(2016).Killingtherisingsun:HowAmericavanquishedWorldWarIIJapan.PanMacmillan.Pikulina,E.,Renneboog,L.,&Tobler,P.N.(2017).Overconfidenceandinvestment:Anexperimentalapproach.JournalofCorporateFinance,43,175-192.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.01.002Rajan,R.,&Winton,A.(1995).Covenantsandcollateralasincentivestomonitor.TheJournalofFinance,50(4),1113-1146.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04052.xReuters.(2018).Regulatedbankssoftenstanceonleveragedlendingguidance.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lev-regulation/regulated-banks-soften-stance-on-leveraged-lending-guidance-idUSKBN1HQ2XVRoach,S.S.(2009,February).Awake-upcallfortheUSandChina:stresstestingasymbioticrelationship.InTestimonybeforetheUS-ChinaEconomicandSecurityReviewCommissionoftheUSCongress,HearingonChinasRoleintheOriginsandResponsetotheGlobalRecession.https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2.17.09Roach.pdfRooney,K.(2019).Sharebuybackssoartorecord$806billionbiggerthanaFacebookorExxonMobil.https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/share-buybacks-soar-to-a-record-topping-800-billion-bigger-than-a-facebook-or-exxon-mobil.html#targetText=Share%20repurchases%20have%20hit%20records,to%20a%20record%20%24223%20billion.Rumer,E.,&Sokolsky,R.(2019).ThirtyyearsofU.S.policytowardRussia:Cantheviciouscirclebebroken?CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace.https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/20/thirty-years-of-u.s.-policy-toward-russia-can-vicious-circle-be-broken-pub-79323Salhin,A.,Sherif,M.,&Jones,E.(2016).Managerialsentiment,consumerconfidenceandsectorreturns.InternationalReviewofFinancialAnalysis,47,24-38.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.06.009Schweller,R.(2018).ThreeCheersforTrump\'sForeignPolicy:WhattheEstablishmentMisses.ForeignAffairs,97,133.http://cf.linnbenton.edu/artcom/social_science/clarkd/upload/Three%20Cheers%20for%20Trump\'s%20Foreign%20Policy.pdfSEC.(2010).LitigationReleaseNo.21489/April16,2010.https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2010/lr21489.htmSen,A.K.(1977).Rationalfools:Acritiqueofthebehavioralfoundationsofeconomictheory.Philosophy&PublicAffairs,317-344.https://philpapers.org/rec/SENRFASeth,S.(2020April,14).WhyChinabuysU.S.debtwithtreasurybonds.Investopedia.https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.aspShambaugh,D.L.(2013).Chinagoesglobal:Thepartialpower(Vol.111).Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress.Simon,H.A.(1972).Theoriesofboundedrationality.Decisionandorganization,1(1),161-176.http://innovbfa.viabloga.com/files/Herbert_Simon___theories_of_bounded_rationality___1972.pdfSmith,K.(2019).Howthistradewarwillremaketheworld.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-23/u-s-china-trade-war-will-remake-the-worldStent,A.(2020April,27).WhyareUS-Russiarelationssochallenging?Brookings:Policy2020.https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/why-are-us-russia-relations-so-challenging/Stephan,U.,Patterson,M.,Kelly,C.,&Mair,J.(2016).Organizationsdrivingpositivesocialchange:Areviewandanintegrativeframeworkofchangeprocesses.JournalofManagement,42(5),1250-1281.https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206316633268Tracy,E.F.,Shvarts,E.,Simonov,E.,&Babenko,M.(2017).ChinasnewEurasianambitions:TheenvironmentalrisksoftheSilkRoadEconomicBelt.EurasianGeographyandEconomics,58(1),56-88.https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2017.1295876VanLerven,F.(2016).QuantitativeeasingintheEurozone:Aone-yearassessment.Inter-economics,51(4),237-242.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-016-0608-9VanderPutten,F.,Rood,J.,&Meijnders,M.(2016).Greatpowersandglobalstability.ClingendaelMonitor2016.https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/clingendael_moitor2016-great_powers_and_global_stability-eng_0.pdfWalliman,N.(2017).Researchmethods:Thebasics.Routledge.Woolcock,M.(2001).Theplaceofsocialcapitalinunderstandingsocialandeconomicoutcomes.CanadianJournalofPolicyResearch,2(1),11-17.https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michael_Woolcock2/publication/269576288_The_Place_of_Social_Capital_in_Understanding_Social_and_Economic_Outcome/links/57c77f6c08ae28c01d4f84ee.pdfWong,D.,&Koty,A.K.(2020August,25).TheUS-ChinaTradeWar:ATimeline.https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/Yom,S(2020).USforeignpolicyintheMiddleEast:Thelogicofhegemonicretreat.GlobalPolicy,11(1),75-83.https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12777AppendixA:ScatterplotofDependentVariable-ConfidenceAppendixB:Scatterplot:DependentVariable-ConfidenceAppendixC:SurveyInstrumentQ1.Youareconfidentthatyourindustrycanhandleanothereconomiccrisis.1Notconfidentatall2Alittleworried3Noopinion4Somewhatconfident5VeryconfidentQ2.Youaregeopoliticallyawareofwhatgoesonintheworldandthatawarenessimpactshowyouthink;meaningatanygiventimeyoucandescriberelationsbetweenvariousstates,howUSforeignpolicyorsanctionsimpactsboththeglobaleconomyandthelocaleconomiesofstates,andtheextenttowhichtensionsarerisingorfallingbetweenvariousnations;anddoingsoimpactsyourviews.1Notgeopoliticallyawareatall2Unsure,i.e.,hearsomethingsbutdontknowwhatitmeans3Neitherawarenorunaware,i.e.,canprocessinformationandtalkaboutitifthesubjectcomesupbutdonotthinkaboutitmuch4Somewhataware;IdomakedecisionseveryonceinawhilebasedonwhatIunderstand5Veryaware;allofmydecisionsarebasedonthisawarenessQ3.Youareawareofrisingdebtlevelsandcentralbankmonetarypolicyandtherolebothplayintheglobaleconomy.1Notawareatall2Unsure,i.e.,hearsomethingsbutdontknowwhatitmeans3Neitherawarenorunaware,i.e.,canprocessinformationputoutbytheFederalReserveorbybankanalysts/CEOsandtalkaboutitifthesubjectcomesupbutdonotthinkaboutitmuch4Somewhataware;IdomakedecisionseveryonceinawhilebasedonwhatIunderstandontheserelationships5Veryaware;allofmydecisionsarebasedonthisawareness